Burden of COVID-19 and case fatality rate in Pune, India: an analysis of the first and second wave of the pandemic
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To assess trends in case incidence and fatality rate between the first and second waves, we analyzed programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India. Method
The trends of cases incidence, time-to-death and case fatality rate (CFR) were analyzed. Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality. Results
Of 465 192 COVID-19 cases, 162 182 (35%) were reported in the first wave and 4146 (2.5%) deaths, and 275 493 (59%) in the second wave and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (P<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted CFR ratio (aCFRR)1.49; 95% CI: 1.37–1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.70). Conclusion
The burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths was more significant in the second wave; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating new therapies and implementing mass vaccination against COVID-19 are urgently needed.
SUBMITTER: Bogam P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8690685 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC8661807 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUpdated estimates of measles case fatality rates (CFR) are critical for monitoring progress towards measles elimination goals. India accounted for 36% of total measles deaths occurred globally in 2011. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate measles CFR and identify the risk factors for measles death in Bihar-one of the north Indian states historically known for its low vaccination coverage.MethodsWe systematically selected 16 of the 31 laboratory-confirmed measles outbreaks occurring in Bihar during 1 October 2011 to 30 April 2012. All households of the villages/urban localities affected by these outbreaks were visited to identify measles cases and deaths. We calculated CFR and used multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for measles death.ResultsThe survey found 3670 measles cases and 28 deaths (CFR: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.47-1.30). CFR was higher among under-five children (1.22%) and children belonging to scheduled castes/tribes (SC/ST, 1.72%). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors associated with measles death were age <5 years, SC/ST status and non-administration of vitamin A during illness. Outbreaks with longer interval between the occurrence of first case and notification of the outbreak also had a higher rate of deaths.ConclusionsMeasles CFR in Bihar was low. To further reduce case fatality, health authorities need to ensure that SC/ST are targeted by the immunization programme and that outbreak investigations target for vitamin A treatment of cases in high risk groups such as SC/ST and young children and ensure regular visits by health-workers in affected villages to administer vitamin A to new cases.
| S-EPMC4019661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Breakthrough infections following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination remain the global concern. The current study was conducted during the second wave of COVID-19 (1st March-7th July 2021) in Pune, India, at two tertiary care hospitals. Of the 6,159 patients diagnosed as COVID-19, 372/2,210 (16.8%) were breakthrough infections. Of these, 81.1 and 18.8% received one or two doses of Covishield or Covaxin, respectively. Of note, 30.7% patients were with comorbidities, hypertension being the commonest (12.44%). The majority of infections were mild (81.2%). Forty-three patients with breakthrough infections were hospitalized with severe (n = 27, 62.8%) or moderate (n = 16, 37.2%) disease. The receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences from vaccinated (n = 126) and non-vaccinated (n = 168) samples were used for variant analysis. The delta variant was predominant followed by kappa in both vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. Viral load (qRT-PCR) was not different among these categories. Full-genome comparisons of sequences in relation to vaccination status did not identify any mutation characteristic of the vaccinated group. Irrespective of the number of doses, neutralizing antibody titers (PRNT50) during the first week of clinical disease were higher in the vaccinated patients than the unvaccinated category. In conclusion, though not completely, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines used for country-wide immunization did reduce disease severity among the individuals without any comorbidity by inducing rapid immune response against distinctly different delta and kappa variants. The utility against emerging variants with further mutations need to be carefully examined.
| S-EPMC9877521 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC7582417 | biostudies-literature
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Project description: Not available
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Project description:BackgroundThe first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chile occurred during the cold season reaching a peak by the end of June 2020, with 80 % of the cases concentrated in its capital, Santiago. The main objective of this study was to estimate the attack rate during this first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in a large, densely populated city with more than seven million inhabitants. Since the number of confirmed cases provides biased information due to individuals' potential self-selection, mostly related to asymptomatic patients and testing access, we measured antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 to assess infection prevalence during the first wave in the city, as well as estimate asymptomatic cases, and infection fatality ratio. To our knowledge this is one of the few population-based cross-sectional serosurvey during the first wave in a highly affected emerging country. The challenges of pandemic response in urban settings in a capital city like Santiago, with heterogeneous subpopulations and high mobility through public transportation, highlight the necessity of more accurate information regarding the first waves of new emerging diseases.MethodsFrom April 24 to June 21, 2020, 1326 individuals were sampled from a long-standing panel of household representatives of Santiago. Immunochromatographic assays were used to detect IgM and IgG antibody isotypes.ResultsSeroprevalence reached 6.79 % (95 %CI 5.58 %-8.26 %) in the first 107 days of the pandemic, without significant differences among sex and age groups; this figure indicates an attack rate 2.8 times higher than the one calculated with registered cases. It also changes the fatality rate estimates, from a 2.33 % case fatality rate reported by MOH to an estimated crude 1.00 % (CI95 % 0.97-1.03) infection fatality rate (adjusted for test performance 1.66 % [CI95 % 1.61-1.71]). Most seropositive were symptomatic (81,1 %).ConclusionsDespite the high number of cases registered, mortality rates, and the stress produced over the health system, the vast majority of the people remained susceptible to potential new epidemic waves. We contribute to the understanding of the initial spread of emerging epidemic threats. Consequently, our results provide better information to design early strategies that counterattack new health challenges in urban contexts.
| S-EPMC9277990 | biostudies-literature
Project description:India has suffered from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic since March 2021. This wave of the outbreak has been more serious than the first wave pandemic in 2020, which suggests that some new transmission characteristics may exist. COVID-19 is transmitted through droplets, aerosols, and contact with infected surfaces. Air pollutants are also considered to be associated with COVID-19 transmission. However, the roles of indoor transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of these factors in indoor environments are still poorly understood. Our study focused on reveal the role of indoor transmission in the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our results indicated that human mobility in the home environment had the highest relative influence on COVID-19 daily growth rate in the country. The COVID-19 daily growth rate was significantly positively correlated with the residential percent rate in most state-level areas in India. A significant positive nonlinear relationship was found when the residential percent ratio ranged from 100 to 120%. Further, epidemic dynamics modelling indicated that a higher proportion of indoor transmission in the home environment was able to intensify the severity of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our findings suggested that more attention should be paid to the indoor transmission in home environment. The public health strategies to reduce indoor transmission such as ventilation and centralized isolation will be beneficial to the prevention and control of COVID-19.
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Project description:Introduction COVID-19 is pandemic. International travel bans in March 2020 dampened viral spread and resulted in an overnight global economic crisis. As countries ease travel and social distancing restrictions, viral resurgences are expected. This study was carried out in order to delineate the development of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to lockdown easements in June–July 2020. Methods Publically available data for daily new cases and deaths from December 2019 to September 2020 was obtained from “Our World In Data” website and analysed with Pearson correlation. Results At global level, both datasets exhibited three distinct time periods. Cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again. Almost all of the slopes in these three time periods were statistically significant. Deaths followed a similar three-part pattern, albeit more pronounced, with values lagging circa one week after new cases and a middle time period when numbers (of deaths) actually decreased, with all periods exhibiting significant slopes. At continent level, for new cases, Asia rose steadily, Europe is increasing again, the Americas and Africa are declining. Deaths follow a similar pattern. Oceania shows a bimodal pattern, with a first and second wave of cases shortly followed by deaths in a similar pattern. The monthly ratio of detected cases to deaths (case fatality ratio) initially rose to 0.08, then fell to 0.02. Conclusion The world is in its second wave of COVID-19, with fortunately reduced case fatality ratios. Highlights • The easing of public restrictions related to COVID-19 is producing a second wave of cases.• Globally, both new cases and deaths exhibit three distinct time periods.• New cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again to early August.• Deaths were similar, more pronounced, with a middle time period when deaths decreased.• Oceania shows a bimodal peak for new cases and deaths.
| S-EPMC7532352 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness.Global, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune.In the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune.The World Health Organization's (WHO's) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health emergencies.
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