Burden of COVID-19 and case fatality rate in Pune, India: an analysis of the first and second wave of the pandemic
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To assess trends in case incidence and fatality rate between the first and second waves, we analyzed programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India. Method
The trends of cases incidence, time-to-death and case fatality rate (CFR) were analyzed. Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality. Results
Of 465 192 COVID-19 cases, 162 182 (35%) were reported in the first wave and 4146 (2.5%) deaths, and 275 493 (59%) in the second wave and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (P<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted CFR ratio (aCFRR)1.49; 95% CI: 1.37–1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.70). Conclusion
The burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths was more significant in the second wave; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating new therapies and implementing mass vaccination against COVID-19 are urgently needed.
SUBMITTER: Bogam P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8690685 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8661807 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUpdated estimates of measles case fatality rates (CFR) are critical for monitoring progress towards measles elimination goals. India accounted for 36% of total measles deaths occurred globally in 2011. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate measles CFR and identify the risk factors for measles death in Bihar-one of the north Indian states historically known for its low vaccination coverage.MethodsWe systematically selected 16 of the 31 laboratory-confirmed measles outbreaks occurring in Bihar during 1 October 2011 to 30 April 2012. All households of the villages/urban localities affected by these outbreaks were visited to identify measles cases and deaths. We calculated CFR and used multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for measles death.ResultsThe survey found 3670 measles cases and 28 deaths (CFR: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.47-1.30). CFR was higher among under-five children (1.22%) and children belonging to scheduled castes/tribes (SC/ST, 1.72%). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors associated with measles death were age <5 years, SC/ST status and non-administration of vitamin A during illness. Outbreaks with longer interval between the occurrence of first case and notification of the outbreak also had a higher rate of deaths.ConclusionsMeasles CFR in Bihar was low. To further reduce case fatality, health authorities need to ensure that SC/ST are targeted by the immunization programme and that outbreak investigations target for vitamin A treatment of cases in high risk groups such as SC/ST and young children and ensure regular visits by health-workers in affected villages to administer vitamin A to new cases.
| S-EPMC4019661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Breakthrough infections following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination remain the global concern. The current study was conducted during the second wave of COVID-19 (1st March-7th July 2021) in Pune, India, at two tertiary care hospitals. Of the 6,159 patients diagnosed as COVID-19, 372/2,210 (16.8%) were breakthrough infections. Of these, 81.1 and 18.8% received one or two doses of Covishield or Covaxin, respectively. Of note, 30.7% patients were with comorbidities, hypertension being the commonest (12.44%). The majority of infections were mild (81.2%). Forty-three patients with breakthrough infections were hospitalized with severe (n = 27, 62.8%) or moderate (n = 16, 37.2%) disease. The receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences from vaccinated (n = 126) and non-vaccinated (n = 168) samples were used for variant analysis. The delta variant was predominant followed by kappa in both vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. Viral load (qRT-PCR) was not different among these categories. Full-genome comparisons of sequences in relation to vaccination status did not identify any mutation characteristic of the vaccinated group. Irrespective of the number of doses, neutralizing antibody titers (PRNT50) during the first week of clinical disease were higher in the vaccinated patients than the unvaccinated category. In conclusion, though not completely, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines used for country-wide immunization did reduce disease severity among the individuals without any comorbidity by inducing rapid immune response against distinctly different delta and kappa variants. The utility against emerging variants with further mutations need to be carefully examined.
| S-EPMC9877521 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates (IFRs) in developing countries remain poorly characterized. Mexico has one of the highest reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates worldwide, although available estimates do not consider serologic assessment of prior exposure nor all SARS-CoV-2-related deaths. We aimed to estimate sex- and age-specific IFRs for SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.MethodsThe total number of people in Mexico with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived from National Survey of Health and Nutrition-COVID-19 (ENSANUT 2020 Covid-19)-a nationally representative serosurvey conducted from August to November 2020. COVID-19 mortality data matched to ENSANUT's dates were retrieved from the death-certificate registry, which captures the majority of COVID-19 deaths in Mexico, and from the national surveillance system, which covers the subset of COVID-19 deaths that were identified by the health system and were confirmed through a positive polymerase chain reaction test. We analysed differences in IFRs by urbanization and region.ResultsThe national SARS-CoV-2 IFR was 0.47% (95% CI 0.44, 0.50) using death certificates and 0.30% (95% CI 0.28, 0.33) using surveillance-based deaths. The IFR increased with age, being close to zero at age <30 years, but increasing to 1% at ages 50-59 years in men and 60-69 years in women, and being the highest at ≥80 years for men (5.88%) and women (6.23%). Across Mexico's nine regions, Mexico City (0.99%) had the highest and the Peninsula (0.26%) the lowest certificate-based IFRs. Metropolitan areas had higher certificate-based IFR (0.63%) than rural areas (0.17%).ConclusionAfter the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall IFR in Mexico was comparable with those of European countries. The IFR in Mexico increased with age and was higher in men than in women. The variations in IFRs across regions and places of residence within the country suggest that structural factors related to population characteristics, pandemic containment and healthcare capabilities could have influenced lethality at the local level.
| S-EPMC8903396 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionGlobally, India has the third largest population of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the second highest number of COVID-19 cases. Anxiety is associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence. It is crucial to understand the burden of anxiety and its sources among Asian Indian PLHIV during the COVID pandemic, but data are limited.MethodsDuring the first month of government mandated lockdown, we administered an anxiety assessment via telephone among PLHIV registered for care at a publicly funded antiretroviral therapy (ART) center in Pune, India. Generalized anxiety was defined as GAD-7 score ≥ 10. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were compared by anxiety status (GAD-7 score ≥ 10 vs GAD-7 score < 10). Qualitative responses to an open-ended question about causes of concern were evaluated using thematic analysis.ResultsAmong 167 PLHIV, median age was 44 years (IQR 40-50); the majority were cisgender women (60%) and had a monthly family income < 200 USD (81%). Prior history of tuberculosis and other comorbidities were observed in 38 and 27%, respectively. Overall, prevalence of generalized anxiety was 25% (n = 41). PLHIV with GAD-7 score ≥ 10 had fewer remaining doses of ART than those with lower GAD-7 scores (p = 0.05). Thematic analysis indicated that concerns were both health related and unrelated, and stated temporally. Present concerns were often also projected as future concerns.ConclusionsThe burden of anxiety was high during COVID lockdown in our population of socioeconomically disadvantaged PLHIV in Pune and appeared to be influenced by concerns about ART availability. The burden of anxiety among PLHIV will likely increase with the worsening pandemic in India, as sources of anxiety are expected to persist. We recommend the regular use of short screening tools for anxiety to monitor and triage patients as an extension of current HIV services.
| S-EPMC7582417 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction : There is a dearth of data on anxiety related to the COVID-19 pandemic from people living with HIV (PLHIV). This is a cause of concern as anxiety is associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence. Globally, India has the third largest population of PLHIV and third highest number of COVID-19 cases which are rapidly increasing. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the burden of anxiety and its sources among Asian Indian PLHIV during this pandemic. Methods: We used data from a telephonically delivered assessment among PLHIV engaged in care at a tertiary healthcare associated antiretroviral therapy (ART) center in Pune, India. Assessments were conducted between April 21 and May 28, 2020, one month into the government mandated lockdown. GAD-7 was used to assess for anxiety over two-preceding weeks. Significant sociodemographic and clinical differences between groups (GAD-7<10 and GAD-7?10) were assessed using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxson rank sum tests, for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Thematic analysis was employed to analyze an open-ended question that asked about the most pressing cause(s) of concern. Results : Of 167 PLHIV contacted, median age was 44 years (IQR:40 - 50), 60% (n=100) were cisgender women and 81% (n=135) had a monthly family income<200 USD. Thirty-eight percent (n=64) had prior history of tuberculosis and 27% (n=45) were living with another comorbidity. A fourth (25%, n=41) had GAD-7 scores indicative of generalized anxiety. PLHIV who had fewer remaining doses of ART had significantly higher GAD-7 scores compared to those that had more doses (p=0.05). Thematic analysis indicated that concerns were both health related and unrelated, and stated temporally. Present concerns were often also projected as future concerns. Conclusions : In a group of socioeconomically disadvantaged PLHIV, a fourth were found to have anxiety, that appeared to be influenced by concerns about ART availability. Furthermore, the persistence of sources of anxiety and therefore an increase in anxiety for these PLHIV is anticipated as the pandemic worsens in India. We recommend the regular utilization of short screening tools for anxiety to monitor and triage PLHIV as an extension of current HIV-services.
| S-EPMC7430601 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8164526 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chile occurred during the cold season reaching a peak by the end of June 2020, with 80 % of the cases concentrated in its capital, Santiago. The main objective of this study was to estimate the attack rate during this first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in a large, densely populated city with more than seven million inhabitants. Since the number of confirmed cases provides biased information due to individuals' potential self-selection, mostly related to asymptomatic patients and testing access, we measured antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 to assess infection prevalence during the first wave in the city, as well as estimate asymptomatic cases, and infection fatality ratio. To our knowledge this is one of the few population-based cross-sectional serosurvey during the first wave in a highly affected emerging country. The challenges of pandemic response in urban settings in a capital city like Santiago, with heterogeneous subpopulations and high mobility through public transportation, highlight the necessity of more accurate information regarding the first waves of new emerging diseases.MethodsFrom April 24 to June 21, 2020, 1326 individuals were sampled from a long-standing panel of household representatives of Santiago. Immunochromatographic assays were used to detect IgM and IgG antibody isotypes.ResultsSeroprevalence reached 6.79 % (95 %CI 5.58 %-8.26 %) in the first 107 days of the pandemic, without significant differences among sex and age groups; this figure indicates an attack rate 2.8 times higher than the one calculated with registered cases. It also changes the fatality rate estimates, from a 2.33 % case fatality rate reported by MOH to an estimated crude 1.00 % (CI95 % 0.97-1.03) infection fatality rate (adjusted for test performance 1.66 % [CI95 % 1.61-1.71]). Most seropositive were symptomatic (81,1 %).ConclusionsDespite the high number of cases registered, mortality rates, and the stress produced over the health system, the vast majority of the people remained susceptible to potential new epidemic waves. We contribute to the understanding of the initial spread of emerging epidemic threats. Consequently, our results provide better information to design early strategies that counterattack new health challenges in urban contexts.
| S-EPMC9277990 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8860706 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction COVID-19 is pandemic. International travel bans in March 2020 dampened viral spread and resulted in an overnight global economic crisis. As countries ease travel and social distancing restrictions, viral resurgences are expected. This study was carried out in order to delineate the development of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to lockdown easements in June–July 2020. Methods Publically available data for daily new cases and deaths from December 2019 to September 2020 was obtained from “Our World In Data” website and analysed with Pearson correlation. Results At global level, both datasets exhibited three distinct time periods. Cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again. Almost all of the slopes in these three time periods were statistically significant. Deaths followed a similar three-part pattern, albeit more pronounced, with values lagging circa one week after new cases and a middle time period when numbers (of deaths) actually decreased, with all periods exhibiting significant slopes. At continent level, for new cases, Asia rose steadily, Europe is increasing again, the Americas and Africa are declining. Deaths follow a similar pattern. Oceania shows a bimodal pattern, with a first and second wave of cases shortly followed by deaths in a similar pattern. The monthly ratio of detected cases to deaths (case fatality ratio) initially rose to 0.08, then fell to 0.02. Conclusion The world is in its second wave of COVID-19, with fortunately reduced case fatality ratios. Highlights • The easing of public restrictions related to COVID-19 is producing a second wave of cases.• Globally, both new cases and deaths exhibit three distinct time periods.• New cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again to early August.• Deaths were similar, more pronounced, with a middle time period when deaths decreased.• Oceania shows a bimodal peak for new cases and deaths.
| S-EPMC7532352 | biostudies-literature