COVID-19: A global and continental overview of the second wave and its (relatively) attenuated case fatality ratio

ABSTRACT: Introduction COVID-19 is pandemic. International travel bans in March 2020 dampened viral spread and resulted in an overnight global economic crisis. As countries ease travel and social distancing restrictions, viral resurgences are expected. This study was carried out in order to delineate the development of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to lockdown easements in June–July 2020. Methods Publically available data for daily new cases and deaths from December 2019 to September 2020 was obtained from “Our World In Data” website and analysed with Pearson correlation. Results At global level, both datasets exhibited three distinct time periods. Cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again. Almost all of the slopes in these three time periods were statistically significant. Deaths followed a similar three-part pattern, albeit more pronounced, with values lagging circa one week after new cases and a middle time period when numbers (of deaths) actually decreased, with all periods exhibiting significant slopes. At continent level, for new cases, Asia rose steadily, Europe is increasing again, the Americas and Africa are declining. Deaths follow a similar pattern. Oceania shows a bimodal pattern, with a first and second wave of cases shortly followed by deaths in a similar pattern. The monthly ratio of detected cases to deaths (case fatality ratio) initially rose to 0.08, then fell to 0.02. Conclusion The world is in its second wave of COVID-19, with fortunately reduced case fatality ratios. Highlights • The easing of public restrictions related to COVID-19 is producing a second wave of cases.• Globally, both new cases and deaths exhibit three distinct time periods.• New cases rose to mid-April, plateaued till mid-May then rose again to early August.• Deaths were similar, more pronounced, with a middle time period when deaths decreased.• Oceania shows a bimodal peak for new cases and deaths.

SUBMITTER: Grech V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7532352 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature