Dataset Information

Novel strategy for disease risk prediction incorporating predicted gene expression and DNA methylation data: a multi-phased study of prostate cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Background

DNA methylation and gene expression are known to play important roles in the etiology of human diseases such as prostate cancer (PCa). However, it has not yet been possible to incorporate information of DNA methylation and gene expression into polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Here, we aimed to develop and validate an improved PRS for PCa risk by incorporating genetically predicted gene expression and DNA methylation, and other genomic information using an integrative method.

Methods

Using data from the PRACTICAL consortium, we derived multiple sets of genetic scores, including those based on available single-nucleotide polymorphisms through widely used methods of pruning and thresholding, LDpred, LDpred-funt, AnnoPred, and EBPRS, as well as PRS constructed using the genetically predicted gene expression and DNA methylation through a revised pruning and thresholding strategy. In the tuning step, using the UK Biobank data (1458 prevalent cases and 1467 controls), we selected PRSs with the best performance. Using an independent set of data from the UK Biobank, we developed an integrative PRS combining information from individual scores. Furthermore, in the testing step, we tested the performance of the integrative PRS in another independent set of UK Biobank data of incident cases and controls.

Results

Our constructed PRS had improved performance (C statistics: 76.1%) over PRSs constructed by individual benchmark methods (from 69.6% to 74.7%). Furthermore, our new PRS had much higher risk assessment power than family history. The overall net reclassification improvement was 69.0% by adding PRS to the baseline model compared with 12.5% by adding family history.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a new PRS which may improve the utility in predicting the risk of developing PCa. Our innovative method can also be applied to other human diseases to improve risk prediction across multiple outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Wu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8696216 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDNA methylation (DNAm) has important regulatory roles in many biological processes and diseases. It is the only epigenetic mark with a clear mechanism of mitotic inheritance and the only one easily available on a genome scale. Aberrant cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) methylation has been discussed in the context of disease aetiology, especially cancer. CpG hypermethylation of promoter regions is often associated with silencing of tumour suppressor genes and hypomethylation with activation of oncogenes.Supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) is a popular machine learning method. However, in a recent application to phenotype prediction from DNAm data SPCA was inferior to the specific method EVORA.ResultsWe present Model-Selection-SPCA (MS-SPCA), an enhanced version of SPCA. MS-SPCA applies several models that perform well in the training data to the test data and selects the very best models for final prediction based on parameters of the test data.We have applied MS-SPCA for phenotype prediction from genome-wide DNAm data. CpGs used for prediction are selected based on the quantification of three features of their methylation (average methylation difference, methylation variation difference and methylation-age-correlation). We analysed four independent case-control datasets that correspond to different stages of cervical cancer: (i) cases currently cytologically normal, but will later develop neoplastic transformations, (ii, iii) cases showing neoplastic transformations and (iv) cases with confirmed cancer. The first dataset was split into several smaller case-control datasets (samples either Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) positive or negative). We demonstrate that cytology normal HPV+ and HPV- samples contain DNAm patterns which are associated with later neoplastic transformations. We present evidence that DNAm patterns exist in cytology normal HPV- samples that (i) predispose to neoplastic transformations after HPV infection and (ii) predispose to HPV infection itself. MS-SPCA performs significantly better than EVORA.ConclusionsMS-SPCA can be applied to many classification problems. Additional improvements could include usage of more than one principal component (PC), with automatic selection of the optimal number of PCs. We expect that MS-SPCA will be useful for analysing recent larger DNAm data to predict future neoplastic transformations.