Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Pageaud S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8708137 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundNetwork-based interventions against epidemic spread are most powerful when the full network structure is known. However, in practice, resource constraints require decisions to be made based on partial network information. We investigated how the accuracy of network data available at individual and village levels affected network-based vaccination effectiveness.MethodsWe simulated a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process on static empirical social networks from 75 rural Indian villages. First, we used regression analysis to predict the percentage of individuals ever infected (cumulative incidence) based on village-level network properties for simulated datasets from 10 representative villages. Second, we simulated vaccinating 10% of each of the 75 empirical village networks at baseline, selecting vaccinees through one of five network-based approaches: random individuals (Random); random contacts of random individuals (Nomination); random high-degree individuals (High Degree); highest degree individuals (Highest Degree); or most central individuals (Central). The first three approaches require only sample data; the latter two require full network data. We also simulated imposing a limit on how many contacts an individual can nominate (Fixed Choice Design, FCD), which reduces the data collection burden but generates only partially observed networks.ResultsIn regression analysis, we found mean and standard deviation of the degree distribution to strongly predict cumulative incidence. In simulations, the Nomination method reduced cumulative incidence by one-sixth compared to Random vaccination; full network methods reduced infection by two-thirds. The High Degree approach had intermediate effectiveness. Somewhat surprisingly, FCD truncating individuals' degrees at three was as effective as using complete networks.ConclusionsUsing even partial network information to prioritize vaccines at either the village or individual level, i.e. determine the optimal order of communities or individuals within each village, substantially improved epidemic outcomes. Such approaches may be feasible and effective in outbreak settings, and full ascertainment of network structure may not be required.
| S-EPMC6677279 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Describing the undiagnosed HIV-infected population is essential for guiding HIV screening policy, implementing interventions, and resource planning.We used French national HIV surveillance data and a back-calculation approach to estimate the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals in France and the distribution of time since HIV infection among undiagnosed individuals. We also used data on CD4? cell count decline to assess the CD4? cell count distribution among undiagnosed individuals.We estimated that 29,000 [95% confidence interval (CI): 24,200-33,900] individuals were living with undiagnosed HIV infection at the end of 2010. Of these, 28.7% (95% CI: 27.1-30.4) were infected less than a year ago, 16.4% (95% CI: 15.0-17.8) more than 5 years ago, and 59.6% (95% CI: 59.2-59.8) were eligible for antiretroviral treatment (CD4? cell count less than 500 cells/?l) according to the 2010 French guidelines. Men represented 70.0% of the undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals and had lower CD4? cell counts than women. The numbers of undiagnosed infections in MSM, non-French national heterosexuals, and French national heterosexuals were similar (9200, 9300, 10,000, respectively). However, because of differences in group size, undiagnosed HIV prevalence varied significantly between these groups (2.95, 0.36, 0.03%, respectively; P less than 0.001).Our findings suggest that many undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals were eligible for treatment and, thus, lack of HIV diagnosis is a lost chance for them; many more heterosexuals than MSM will need to be tested to find those undiagnosed; and universal screening of men may be cost-effective, especially in the areas most affected by the epidemic, such as the Paris region.
| S-EPMC4262966 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMore than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.MethodsWe use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing.ResultsWe estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints.ConclusionsAs France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
| S-EPMC7391016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since March of 2020, over 210 million SARS-CoV-2 cases have been reported and roughly five billion doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine have been delivered. The rise of the more infectious delta variant has recently indicated the value of reinstating previously relaxed non-pharmacological and test-driven preventative measures. These efforts have been met with resistance, due, in part, to a lack of site-specific quantitative evidence which can justify their value. As vaccination rates continue to increase, a gap in knowledge exists regarding appropriate thresholds for escalation and de-escalation of COVID-19 preventative measures. We conducted a series of simulation experiments, trialing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in a hypothesized working environment that is subject to COVID-19 infections from the surrounding community. We established cohorts of individuals who would, in simulation, work together for a set period of time. With these cohorts, we tested the rates of workplace and community acquired infections based on applied isolation strategies, community infection rates (CIR), scales of testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions, variant predominance’s and testing strategies, vaccination coverages, and vaccination efficacies of the members included. Permuting through each combination of these variables, we estimated expected case counts for 33,462 unique workplace scenarios. When the CIR is 5 new confirmed cases per 100,000 or fewer, and at 50% of the workforce is vaccinated with a 95% efficacious vaccine, then testing daily with an antigen-based or PCR based test in only unvaccinated workers will result in less than one infection through 4,800 person weeks. When the community infection rate per 100,000 persons is less than or equal to 60, and the vaccination coverage of the workforce is 100% with 95% vaccine efficacy then no masking or routine testing + isolation strategies are needed to prevent workplace acquired infections regardless of variant predominance. Identifying and isolating workers with antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing methods results in the same or fewer workplace acquired infections than testing with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. Specific scenarios exist in which preventative measures taken to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread, including masking, and testing plus isolation strategies can safely be relaxed. Further, efficacious testing with quarantine strategies exist for implementation in only unvaccinated cohorts in a workplace. Due to shorter turnaround time, antigen-based testing with lower sensitivity is more effective than PCR testing with higher sensitivities in comparable testing strategies. The general reference interactive heatmap we provide can be used for site specific, immediate, parameter-based case count predictions to inform appropriate institutional policy making.
| S-EPMC8475973 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In October 2010, a virulent South Asian strain of El Tor cholera began to spread in Haiti. Interventions have included treatment of cases and improved sanitation. Use of cholera vaccines would likely have further reduced morbidity and mortality, but such vaccines are in short supply and little is known about effective vaccination strategies for epidemic cholera. We use a mathematical cholera transmission model to assess different vaccination strategies. With limited vaccine quantities, concentrating vaccine in high-risk areas is always most efficient. We show that targeting one million doses of vaccine to areas with high exposure to Vibrio cholerae, enough for two doses for 5% of the population, would reduce the number of cases by 11%. The same strategy with enough vaccine for 30% of the population with modest hygienic improvement could reduce cases by 55% and save 3,320 lives. For epidemic cholera, we recommend a large mobile stockpile of enough vaccine to cover 30% of a country's population to be reactively targeted to populations at high risk of exposure.
| S-EPMC3084143 | biostudies-literature
Project description:No studies have analysed the acute effects of the FIFA 11+ and Harmoknee warm-up programmes on major physical performance measures. The aim of this study was to analyse the acute (post-exercise) effects of the FIFA 11+, Harmoknee and dynamic warm-up routines on several physical performance measures in amateur football players. A randomized, crossover and counterbalanced study design was used to address the purpose of this study. A total of sixteen amateur football players completed the following protocols in a randomized order on separate days: a) FIFA 11+; b) Harmoknee; and c) dynamic warm-up (DWU). In each experimental session, 19 physical performance measures (joint range of motion, hamstring to quadriceps [H/Q] strength ratios, dynamic postural control, 10 and 20 m sprint times, jump height and reactive strength index) were assessed. Measures were compared via a magnitude-based inference analysis. The results of this study showed no main effects between paired comparisons (FIFA 11+ vs. DWU, Harmoknee vs. DWU and Harmoknee vs. FIFA 11+) for joint range of motions, dynamic postural control, H/Q ratios, jumping height and reactive strength index measures. However, significant main effects (likely effects with a probability of >75-99%) were found for 10 (1.7%) and 20 (2.4%) m sprint times, demonstrating that both the FIFA 11+ and Harmoknee resulted in slower sprint times in comparison with the DWU. Therefore, neither the FIFA 11+ nor the Harmoknee routines appear to be preferable to dynamic warm-up routines currently performed by most football players prior to training sessions and matches.
| S-EPMC5218464 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Evidence is increasing that Zika virus-related adverse outcomes can occur throughout pregnancy. Mathematical modeling analysis using reported outcome data suggests that surveillance for these outcomes should begin as soon as an outbreak is detected and should continue for 40 weeks after the outbreak ends.
| S-EPMC5749473 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Disease transmission and epidemic prevention are top conservation concerns for wildlife managers, especially for small, isolated populations. Previous studies have shown that the course of an epidemic within a heterogeneous host population is strongly influenced by whether pathogens are introduced to regions of relatively high or low host densities. This raises the question of how disease monitoring and vaccination programs are influenced by spatial heterogeneity in host distributions. We addressed this question by modeling vaccination and monitoring strategies for the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which has a history of substantial population decline due to introduced disease. We simulated various strategies to detect and prevent epidemics of rabies and canine distemper using a spatially explicit model, which was parameterized from field studies. Increasing sentinel monitoring frequency, and to a lesser degree, the number of monitored sentinels from 50 to 150 radio collared animals, reduced the time to epidemic detection and percentage of the fox population infected at the time of detection for both pathogens. Fox density at the location of pathogen introduction had little influence on the time to detection, but a large influence on how many foxes had become infected by the detection day, especially when sentinels were monitored relatively infrequently. The efficacy of different vaccination strategies was heavily influenced by local host density at the site of pathogen entry. Generally, creating a vaccine firewall far away from the site of pathogen entry was the least effective strategy. A firewall close to the site of pathogen entry was generally more effective than a random distribution of vaccinated animals when pathogens entered regions of high host density, but not when pathogens entered regions of low host density. These results highlight the importance of considering host densities at likely locations of pathogen invasion when designing disease management plans.
| S-EPMC7233584 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Commercial fisheries exert high mortalities on the stocks they exploit, and the consequent selection pressure leads to fisheries-induced evolution of growth rate, age and size at maturation, and reproductive output. Productivity and yields may decline as a result, but little is known about the rate at which such changes are likely to occur. Fisheries-induced evolution of exploited populations has recently become a subject of concern for policy makers, fisheries managers, and the general public, with prominent calls for mitigating management action. We make a general evolutionary impact assessment of fisheries by calculating the expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution and the consequent changes in yield. Rates of evolution are expected to be approximately 0.1-0.6% per year, and the consequent reductions in fisheries yield are <0.7% per year. These rates are at least a factor of 5 lower than published values based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems.
| S-EPMC2710621 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper, the interaction strategies and the evolutionary game analysis of the actions taken by the government and the public in the early days of the epidemic are incorporated into the natural transmission mechanism model of the epidemic, and then the transmission frequency equations of COVID-19 epidemic is established. According to the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK and China, the upper limit of the spread of COVID-19 in different evolutionary scenarios is set. Using SPSS to perform logistic curve fitting, the frequency fitting equations of cumulative confirmed cases under different evolution scenarios are obtained respectively. The analysis result shows that the emergency response strategy adopted by the government in the early days of the epidemic can effectively control the spread of the epidemic. Combined with the transmission frequency equation of COVID-19 epidemic, measures taken by the government are analyzed. The influence of each measure on the frequency variable is judged and then the influence on the spread of the epidemic is obtained. Finally, based on the above analysis, the government is advised to adhere to the principles of scientific, initiative and flexibility when facing major epidemics.
| S-EPMC7584231 | biostudies-literature