Tuning and external validation of an adult congenital heart disease risk prediction model.
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ABSTRACT: Aims
Adequate risk prediction can optimize the clinical management in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to update and subsequently validate a previously developed ACHD risk prediction model.Methods and results
A prediction model was developed in a prospective cohort study including 602 moderately or severely complex ACHD patients, enrolled as outpatients at a tertiary centre in the Netherlands (2011-2013). Multivariable Cox regression was used to develop a model for predicting the 1-year risks of death, heart failure (HF), or arrhythmia (primary endpoint). The Boston ACHD Biobank study, a prospectively enrolled cohort (n = 749) of outpatients who visited a referral centre in Boston (2012-2017), was used for external validation. The primary endpoint occurred in 153 (26%) and 191 (28%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts over median follow-up of 5.6 and 2.3 years, respectively. The final model included 5 out of 14 pre-specified predictors with the following hazard ratios; New York Heart Association class ≥II: 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.90], cardiac medication 2.52 (95% CI 1.72-3.69), ≥1 reintervention after initial repair: 1.56 (95% CI 1.09-2.22), body mass index: 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07), log2 N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pmol/L): 1.48 (95% CI 1.32-1.65). At external validation, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.83) and excellent calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.002; calibration slope = 0.99).Conclusion
These data support the validity and applicability of a parsimonious ACHD risk model based on five readily available clinical variables to accurately predict the 1-year risk of death, HF, or arrhythmia. This risk tool may help guide appropriate care for moderately or severely complex ACHD.
SUBMITTER: Geenen LW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8728026 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundsIn contrast to developed countries, breast cancer in China is characterized by a rapidly escalating incidence rate in the past two decades, lower survival rate, and vast geographic variation. However, there is no validated risk prediction model in China to aid early detection yet.MethodsA large nationwide prospective cohort, China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), was used to evaluate relative and attributable risks of invasive breast cancer. A total of 300,824 women free of any prior cancer were recruited during 2004-2008 and followed up to Dec 31, 2016. Cox models were used to identify breast cancer risk factors and build a relative risk model. Absolute risks were calculated by incorporating national age- and residence-specific breast cancer incidence and non-breast cancer mortality rates. We used an independent large prospective cohort, Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS), with 73,203 women to externally validate the calibration and discriminating accuracy.ResultsDuring a median of 10.2 years of follow-up in the CKB, 2287 cases were observed. The final model included age, residence area, education, BMI, height, family history of overall cancer, parity, and age at menarche. The model was well-calibrated in both the CKB and the SWHS, yielding expected/observed (E/O) ratios of 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.94-1.09) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99), respectively. After eliminating the effect of age and residence, the model maintained moderate but comparable discriminating accuracy compared with those of some previous externally validated models. The adjusted areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were 0.634 (95% CI, 0.608-0.661) and 0.585 (95% CI, 0.564-0.605) in the CKB and the SWHS, respectively.ConclusionsBased only on non-laboratory predictors, our model has a good calibration and moderate discriminating capacity. The model may serve as a useful tool to raise individuals' awareness and aid risk-stratified screening and prevention strategies.
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Project description:Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary malignant intracranial tumor with a poor prognosis. Ferroptosis is a newly discovered, iron-dependent, regulated cell death, and recent studies suggest its close correlation to GBM. The transcriptome and clinical data were obtained for patients diagnosed with GBM from TCGA, GEO, and CGGA. Ferroptosis-related genes were identified, and a risk score model was constructed using Lasso regression analyses. Survival was evaluated by univariate or multivariate Cox regressions and Kaplan-Meier analyses, and further analyses were performed between the high- and low-risk groups. There were 45 ferroptosis-related different expressed genes between GBM and normal brain tissues. The prognostic risk score model was based on four favorable genes, CRYAB, ZEB1, ATP5MC3, and NCOA4, and four unfavorable genes, ALOX5, CHAC1, STEAP3, and MT1G. A significant difference in OS between high- and low-risk groups was observed in both the training cohort (p < 0.001) and the validation cohorts (p = 0.029 and 0.037). Enrichment analysis of pathways and immune cells and functioning was conducted between the two risk groups. A novel prognostic model for GBM patients was developed based on eight ferroptosis-related genes, suggesting a potential prediction effect of the risk score model in GBM.
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