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Using Nomograms to Predict the PPCs of Patients With Diffuse Peritonitis Undergoing Emergency Gastrointestinal Surgery.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in patients with diffuse peritonitis undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model to analyze the independent risk factors for PPCs in patients with diffuse peritonitis who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Using R, we developed and validated a nomogram model for predicting PPCs in patients with diffuse peritonitis undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Results: The LASSO regression analysis showed that AGE, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA), DIAGNOSIS, platelets (on the 3rd day after surgery), cholesterol (on the 3rd day after surgery), ALBUMIN (on the first day after surgery), and preoperative ALBUMIN were independent risk factors for PPCs in patients with diffuse peritonitis undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the nomogram model in the training group was 0.8240; its accuracy was 0.7000, and its sensitivity was 0.8658. This demonstrates that the nomogram has a high prediction value. Also in the test group, the AUC value of the model established by the variables AGE, ASA, and platelets (on the 3rd day after surgery), cholesterol (on the 3rd day after surgery), ALBUMIN (on the first day after surgery), and preoperative ALBUMIN was 0.8240; its accuracy was 0.8000; and its specificity was 0.8986. In the validation group, the same results were obtained. The results of the clinical decision curve show that the benefit rate was also high. Conclusion: Based on the risk factors AGE, ASA, DIAGNOSIS, platelets (on the 3rd day after surgery), cholesterol (on the 3rd day after surgery), ALBUMIN (on the first day after surgery), and preoperative ALBUMIN, the nomogram model established in this study for predicting PPCs in patients with diffuse peritonitis undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery has high accuracy and discrimination.

SUBMITTER: Xue Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8732989 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Abstract Aim Frailty assessment in elderly patients is crucial to predict the postoperative course, considering that frailty is highly associated with postoperative complications and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of osteopenia as a risk factor for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This study comprised 103 elderly patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery. Osteopenia was diagnosed by measuring bone mineral density, which was calculated as the average pixel density in the midvertebral core at the 11th thoracic vertebra on the preoperative plain computed tomography image. We retrospectively investigated the relationship between preoperative osteopenia and severe postoperative complications (Clavien–Dindo classification ≥III). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors for severe postoperative complications. Results Twenty‐three patients (22.3%) developed severe postoperative complications. The optimal cutoff value of bone mineral density for severe postoperative complications was 119.5 Hounsfield unit (HU) and 39 patients (37.9%) were diagnosed with osteopenia. The univariate analysis revealed that the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status of ≥3 (P = .0084), hemoglobin levels (P = .0026), albumin levels (P < .001), sarcopenia (P = .015), and osteopenia (P < .001) were significantly associated with severe postoperative complications. The multivariate analysis showed that osteopenia (P = .014) was an independent risk factor for severe postoperative complications. Conclusion Osteopenia may be a risk factor for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients after emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of osteopenia for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery. In the multivariate analysis, osteopenia was an independent risk factor for severe postoperative complications. Osteopenia may be a risk factor for severe postoperative complications in elderly patients after emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

Project description:Objective:Klatskin tumors are rare, malignant tumors of the biliary system with a poor prognosis for patient survival. The current understanding of these tumors is limited to a small number of case reports or case series; therefore, we examined prognostic factors of this disease. Methods:A population cohort study was conducted in patients selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database with a Klatskin tumor that was histologically diagnosed between 2004 to 2014. Propensity-matching (PSM) analysis was performed to determine the overall survival (OS) among those with a Klatskin tumor (KCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA), or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The nomogram was based on 317 eligible Klatskin tumor patients and its predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability were determined using the concordance index (C-index). Results:Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with Klatskin tumors had significantly worse overall survival rates (1-year OS = 26.2%, 2-year OS = 10.7%, 3-year OS = 3.4%) than those with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (1-year OS = 62.2%, 2-year OS = 36.4%, 3-year OS = 19.1%, p < 0.001) or hepatocellular carcinoma (1-year OS = 72.4% , 2-year OS = 48.5%, 3-year OS = 36.2%, p < 0.001). A poor prognosis was also significantly associated with older age, higher grade, SEER historic stage, and lymph node metastasis. Local destruction of the tumor (HR = 0.635, 95% CI [0.421-0.956], p = 0.03) and surgery (HR = 0.434, 95% [CI 0.328-0.574], p < 0.001) were independent protective factors. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that older age, SEER historic stage, and lymph node metastases (HR = 1.468, 95% CI [1.008-2.139], p = 0.046) were independent prognostic factors of poor survival rates in Klatskin tumor patients, while cancer-directed surgery was an independent protective factor (HR = 0.555, 95% CI [0.316-0.977], p = 0.041). The prognostic and protective factors were included in the nomogram (C-index for survival = 0.651; 95% CI [0.607-0.695]). Conclusions:The Klatskin tumor group had poorer rates of OS and cancer-specific survival than the ICCA and HCC groups. Early detection and diagnosis were associated with a higher rate of OS in Klatskin tumor patients.

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Using Nomograms to Predict the PPCs of Patients With Diffuse Peritonitis Undergoing Emergency Gastrointestinal Surgery.

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