Dataset Information

Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Several HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritized HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (1) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (2) review inclusion of community-level HIV risk in predictive models and (3) examine predictive performance.

Methods

We searched nine databases from inception until 15 February 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random-effects meta-analysis to summarize hazard ratios and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

Results

From 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomized-controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% confidence interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above 25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV-2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW, only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n = 3). Community-level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but was only considered in 3 of 11 multi-site studies. The AUC-ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC-ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I² : 64.02%).

Conclusions

Younger age, non-cohabiting and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low-to-moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalizability, limiting their programmatic utility. Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to "at-risk" individuals and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes.

Prospero number

CRD42021236367.

SUBMITTER: Jia KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8743366 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient.

Project description:Expansion of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has increased the number of people accessing treatment. However, the number of males accessing and being retained along the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care cascade is significantly below the UNAIDS target. Male gender has been associated with poor retention in HIV care programs, and little is known about strategies that reduce attrition of men in ART programs. This review aimed to summarize any studies on strategies to improve retention of heterosexual males in HIV care in SSA. An electronic search was conducted through Ovid® for three databases (MEDLINE®, Embase and Global Health). Studies reporting interventions aimed at improving retention among heterosexual men along the HIV care cascade were reviewed. The inclusion criteria included randomized-controlled trials (RCTs), prospective or retrospective cohort studies that studied adult males (≥15years of age), conducted in SSA and published between January 2005 and April 2019 with an update from 2019 to 2020. The search returned 1958 articles, and 14 studies from eight countries met the inclusion criteria were presented using the PRISMA guidelines. A narrative synthesis was conducted. Six studies explored community-based adherence support groups while three compared use of facility versus community-based delivery models. Three studies measured the effect of national identity cards, disclosure of HIV status, six-monthly clinic visits and distance from the health center. Four studies measured risk of attrition from care using hazard ratios ranging from 1.2-1.8, four studies documented attrition proportions at an average of 40.0% and two studies an average rate of attrition of 43.4/1000PYs. Most (62%) included studies were retrospective cohorts, subject to risk of allocation and outcome assessment bias. A pooled analysis was not performed because of heterogeneity of studies and outcome definitions. No studies have explored heterosexual male- centered interventions in HIV care. However, in included studies that explored retention in both males and females, there were high rates of attrition in males. More male-centered interventions need to be studied preferably in RCTs. Registry number: PROSPERO2020 CRD42020142923 Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020142923.

Project description:BACKGROUND: The geographical structure of an epidemic is ultimately a consequence of the drivers of the epidemic and the population susceptible to the infection. The 'know your epidemic' concept recognizes this geographical feature as a key element for identifying populations at higher risk of HIV infection where prevention interventions should be targeted. In an effort to clarify specific drivers of HIV transmission and identify priority populations for HIV prevention interventions, we conducted a comprehensive mapping of the spatial distribution of HIV infection across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: The main source of data for our study was the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 20 countries from SSA. We identified and compared spatial clusters with high and low numbers of HIV infections in each country using Kulldorff spatial scan test. The test locates areas with higher and lower numbers of HIV infections than expected under spatial randomness. For each identified cluster, a likelihood ratio test was computed. A P-value was determined through Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the statistical significance of each cluster. RESULTS: Our results suggest stark geographic variations in HIV transmission patterns within and across countries of SSA. About 14% of the population in SSA is located in areas of intense HIV epidemics. Meanwhile, another 16% of the population is located in areas of low HIV prevalence, where some behavioral or biological protective factors appear to have slowed HIV transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides direct evidence for strong geographic clustering of HIV infection across SSA. This striking pattern of heterogeneity at the micro-geographical scale might reflect the fact that most HIV epidemics in the general population in SSA are not far from their epidemic threshold. Our findings identify priority geographic areas for HIV programming, and support the need for spatially targeted interventions in order to maximize the impact on the epidemic in SSA.