Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cuellar L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8748783 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ImportanceEvaluating the association of social determinants of health with chronic diseases at the population level requires access to individual-level factors associated with disease, which are rarely available for large populations. Synthetic populations are a possible alternative for this purpose.ObjectiveTo construct and validate a synthetic population that statistically mimics the characteristics and spatial disease distribution of a real population, using real and synthetic data.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based decision analytical model used data for Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, collected from January 2015 to December 2016, to build a semisynthetic population based on the synthetic population used by the modeling and simulation platform FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics). Disease status was assigned to this population using health insurer claims data from the 3 major insurance providers in the county or from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Biological, social, and other variables were also obtained from the National Health Interview Survey, Allegheny County, and public databases. Data analysis was performed from November 2016 to February 2020.ExposuresRisk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death.Main outcomes and measuresDifference between expected and observed CVD death risk. A validated risk equation was used to estimate CVD death risk.ResultsThe synthetic population comprised 1 188 112 individuals with demographic characteristics similar to those of the 2010 census population in the same county. In the synthetic population, the mean (SD) age was 40.6 (23.3) years, and 622 997 were female individuals (52.4%). Mean (SD) observed 4-year rate of excess CVD death risk at the census tract level was -40 (523) per 100 000 persons. The correlation of social determinant data with difference between expected and observed CVD death risk indicated that income- and education-based social determinants were associated with risk. Estimating improved social determinants of health and biological factors associated with disease did not entirely remove the excess in CVD death rates. That is, a 20% improvement in the most significant determinants still resulted in 105 census tracts with excess CVD death risk, which represented 24% of the county population.Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this study suggest that creating a geographically explicit synthetic population from real and synthetic data is feasible and that synthetic populations are useful for modeling disease in large populations and for estimating the outcome of interventions.
| S-EPMC7489828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020 from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Between January 1 st and September 23 rd , 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador is 36,402 (95% CI: 35,762-36,827) or 208 per 10 5 population, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19, such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality especially in older age groups and indigenous populations in Ecuador that was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.
| S-EPMC7941667 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe.MethodsWe collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods.ResultsBetween 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762-36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups.ConclusionsOverall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.
| S-EPMC8385982 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.
| S-EPMC7490587 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Globally, oral health diseases surpass all other non-communicable diseases in prevalence; however, they are not well studied in underserved regions, where accessibility to dental services and oral health education is disparately worse. In Ecuador, further research is needed to understand such disparities better. We aimed to assess the effect of oral health disease on individuals' quality of life and how social disparities and cultural beliefs shape this. Individuals 18 or older receiving care at mobile or worksite clinics from May to October 2023 were included. A mixed-methods approach was employed, involving semi-structured interviews, Oral Health-Related Quality of Life (OHRQoL) measures, and extra-oral photographs (EOP). The sample (n = 528) included mostly females (56.25%) with a mean age of 34.4 ± 9.44. Most participants (88.26%) reported brushing at least twice daily, and less than 5% reported flossing at least once per day. The median OHRQoL score was 4 (min-max), significantly higher among individuals ≥40 years old, holding high school degrees, or not brushing or flossing regularly (p < 0.05). Identified barriers to good oral health included affordability, time, and forgetfulness. Participants not receiving care with a consistent provider reported fear as an additional barrier. Participants receiving worksite dental services reported these barriers to be alleviated. Dental providers were the primary source of oral hygiene education. Most participants reported oral health concerns, most commonly pain, decay, dysphagia, and halitosis - consistent with EOP analysis. Findings underscore a need for multi-level interventions to advance oral health equity.
| S-EPMC11291228 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEstimating the burden of neglected tropical diseases is a valuable tool to support policymakers in the resource allocation for control and elimination of these diseases. Spatial analysis allows to identify the geographical distribution patterns of infectious and parasitic diseases within a country and allows to assess their possible correlation with other health disorders. Despite being neurocysticercosis (NCC) considered as the most important parasitic disease of the nervous system, few efforts have been addressed to assess the real burden of NCC in endemic countries, to date, there are no studies estimating the burden of NCC in South America. In this study we aimed to use the Disability Adjust Life Years (DALY) and spatial indicators as tools to measure the impact of human neurocysticercosis in Ecuador between 2013 and 2017.MethodsMortality, morbidity and spatial data from the national agency of statistics were used to estimate the burden of disease of NCC during a five-year period (2013-2017). NCC cases and its two main sequelae, epilepsy and migraine headache, were stratified by sex and age group to calculate the DALY associated to NCC using the DALY package in R. SATSCAN software was used to assess spatial clusters of NCC and its possible neurological sequelae as epilepsy, status epilepticus, migraine and hydrocephalus.Principal findingsThe burden of human neurocysticercosis ranged from 56201 [95% CI 29961-89333] to 59612 [95% CI 31854-94689] DALY per year, corresponding to 3.54 to 3.56 DALY per 1000 population. Average yearly incidence rates per 10 000 person-years were 0.23 [95% CI 0.21-0.26] for NCC, 4.89 [95% CI 4.78-5.00] for epilepsy, 0.130 [95% CI 0.11-0.15] for status epilepticus, 0.62 [95% CI 0.58-0.66] for migraine headache, and 1.02 [95% CI 0.98-1.07] for hydrocephalus. Most important significant spatial clusters (p<0.0001) were located in the southern region of the highlands of the country.Conclusion/significanceThis is the first study in South America to calculate estimates for burden of NCC and one of the few using spatial analysis to show the importance of sequelae other than epilepsy that play an important role in the impact of human neurocysticercosis.
| S-EPMC7302800 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human movements contribute to the transmission of malaria on spatial scales that exceed the limits of mosquito dispersal. Identifying the sources and sinks of imported infections due to human travel and locating high-risk sites of parasite importation could greatly improve malaria control programs. Here, we use spatially explicit mobile phone data and malaria prevalence information from Kenya to identify the dynamics of human carriers that drive parasite importation between regions. Our analysis identifies importation routes that contribute to malaria epidemiology on regional spatial scales.
| S-EPMC3675794 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe negative effect of air pollution on human health is widely reported in recent literature. It typically involves urbanized areas where the population is concentrated and where most primary air pollutants are produced. A comprehensive health risk assessment is therefore of strategic importance for health authorities.MethodsIn this study we propose a methodology to perform an indirect and retrospective health risk assessment of all-cause mortality associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) in a typical Monday to Friday working week. A combination of satellite-based settlement data, model-based air pollution data, land use, demographics and regional scale mobility, allowed to examine the effect of population mobility and pollutants daily variations on the health risk. A Health Risk Increase (HRI) metric was derived on the basis of three components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability, utilizing the relative risk values from the World Health Organization. An additional metric, the Health Burden (HB) was formulated, which accounts for the total number of people exposed to a certain risk level.ResultsThe effect of regional mobility patterns on the HRI metric was assessed, resulting in an increased HRI associated with all three stressors when considering a dynamic population compared to a static one. The effect of diurnal variation of pollutants was only observed for NO2 and O3. For both, the HRI metric resulted in significantly higher values during night. Concerning the HB parameter, we identified the commuting flows of the population as the main driver in the resulting metric.ConclusionsThis indirect exposure assessment methodology provides tools to support policy makers and health authorities in planning intervention and mitigation measures. The study was carried out in Lombardy, Italy, one of the most polluted regions in Europe, but the incorporation of satellite data makes our approach valuable for studying global health.
| S-EPMC10196305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding how people move within a geographical area, e.g. a city, a country or the whole world, is fundamental in several applications, from predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of an epidemic to inferring migration patterns. Mobile phone records provide an excellent proxy of human mobility, showing that movements exhibit a high level of memory. However, the precise role of memory in widely adopted proxies of mobility, as mobile phone records, is unknown. Here we use 560 million call detail records from Senegal to show that standard Markovian approaches, including higher order ones, fail in capturing real mobility patterns and introduce spurious movements never observed in reality. We introduce an adaptive memory-driven approach to overcome such issues. At variance with Markovian models, it is able to realistically model conditional waiting times, i.e. the probability to stay in a specific area depending on individuals' historical movements. Our results demonstrate that in standard mobility models the individuals tend to diffuse faster than observed in reality, whereas the predictions of the adaptive memory approach significantly agree with observations. We show that, as a consequence, the incidence and the geographical spread of a disease could be inadequately estimated when standard approaches are used, with crucial implications on resources deployment and policy-making during an epidemic outbreak.
| S-EPMC5014054 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although the impact of deaths occurring during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic has been assessed in many archeo-epidemiologic studies, detailed estimates are not available for Portugal. We applied negative binomial models to monthly data on respiratory-related and all-cause deaths at the national and district levels from Portugal for 1916-1922. Influenza-related excess mortality was computed as the difference between observed and expected deaths. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association of geographic and sociodemographic factors with excess mortality. Two waves of pandemic influenza-July 1918 to January 1919 and April to May 1919-were identified, for which the excess all-cause death rate was 195.7 per 10,000 persons. All districts of Portugal were affected. The pandemic hit earlier in southeastern districts and the main cities, but excess mortality was highest in the northeast, in line with the high death burden experienced by northern Spanish provinces. During the period of intense excess mortality (fall/winter 1918-1919), population density was negatively associated with pandemic impact. This pattern changed during the March 1919 to June 1920 wave, when excess mortality increased with population density and in northern and western directions. Portuguese islands were less and later affected. Given the geographic heterogeneity evidenced in our study, subnational sociodemographic characteristics and connectivity should be integrated in pandemic preparedness plans.
| S-EPMC7314274 | biostudies-literature