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Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: Relationships between viral load, severity of illness, and transmissibility of virus are fundamental to understanding pathogenesis and devising better therapeutic and prevention strategies for COVID-19. Here we present within-host modelling of viral load dynamics observed in the upper respiratory tract (URT), drawing upon 2172 serial measurements from 605 subjects, collected from 17 different studies. We developed a mechanistic model to describe viral load dynamics and host response and contrast this with simpler mixed-effects regression analysis of peak viral load and its subsequent decline. We observed wide variation in URT viral load between individuals, over 5 orders of magnitude, at any given point in time since symptom onset. This variation was not explained by age, sex, or severity of illness, and these variables were not associated with the modelled early or late phases of immune-mediated control of viral load. We explored the application of the mechanistic model to identify measured immune responses associated with the control of the viral load. Neutralising antibodies correlated strongly with modelled immune-mediated control of viral load amongst subjects who produced neutralising antibodies. Our models can be used to identify host and viral factors which control URT viral load dynamics, informing future treatment and transmission blocking interventions.

SUBMITTER: Challenger JD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8755404 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundViral load kinetics and duration of viral shedding are important determinants for disease transmission. We aimed to characterise viral load dynamics, duration of viral RNA shedding, and viable virus shedding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in various body fluids, and to compare SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) viral dynamics.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched databases, including MEDLINE, Embase, Europe PubMed Central, medRxiv, and bioRxiv, and the grey literature, for research articles published between Jan 1, 2003, and June 6, 2020. We included case series (with five or more participants), cohort studies, and randomised controlled trials that reported SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, or MERS-CoV infection, and reported viral load kinetics, duration of viral shedding, or viable virus. Two authors independently extracted data from published studies, or contacted authors to request data, and assessed study quality and risk of bias using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist tools. We calculated the mean duration of viral shedding and 95% CIs for every study included and applied the random-effects model to estimate a pooled effect size. We used a weighted meta-regression with an unrestricted maximum likelihood model to assess the effect of potential moderators on the pooled effect size. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020181914.Findings79 studies (5340 individuals) on SARS-CoV-2, eight studies (1858 individuals) on SARS-CoV, and 11 studies (799 individuals) on MERS-CoV were included. Mean duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding was 17·0 days (95% CI 15·5-18·6; 43 studies, 3229 individuals) in upper respiratory tract, 14·6 days (9·3-20·0; seven studies, 260 individuals) in lower respiratory tract, 17·2 days (14·4-20·1; 13 studies, 586 individuals) in stool, and 16·6 days (3·6-29·7; two studies, 108 individuals) in serum samples. Maximum shedding duration was 83 days in the upper respiratory tract, 59 days in the lower respiratory tract, 126 days in stools, and 60 days in serum. Pooled mean SARS-CoV-2 shedding duration was positively associated with age (slope 0·304 [95% CI 0·115-0·493]; p=0·0016). No study detected live virus beyond day 9 of illness, despite persistently high viral loads, which were inferred from cycle threshold values. SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract appeared to peak in the first week of illness, whereas that of SARS-CoV peaked at days 10-14 and that of MERS-CoV peaked at days 7-10.InterpretationAlthough SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in respiratory and stool samples can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. SARS-CoV-2 titres in the upper respiratory tract peak in the first week of illness. Early case finding and isolation, and public education on the spectrum of illness and period of infectiousness are key to the effective containment of SARS-CoV-2.FundingNone.

Project description:The distribution of upper respiratory viral loads (VL) in asymptomatic children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unknown. We assessed PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values and estimated VL in infected asymptomatic children diagnosed in nine pediatric hospital testing programs. Records for asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with positive clinical SARS-CoV-2 tests were reviewed. Ct values were (i) adjusted by centering each value around the institutional median Ct value from symptomatic children tested with that assay and (ii) converted to estimated VL (numbers of copies per milliliter) using internal or manufacturer data. Adjusted Ct values and estimated VL for asymptomatic versus symptomatic children (118 asymptomatic versus 197 symptomatic children aged 0 to 4 years, 79 asymptomatic versus 97 symptomatic children aged 5 to 9 years, 69 asymptomatic versus 75 symptomatic children aged 10 to 13 years, 73 asymptomatic versus 109 symptomatic children aged 14 to 17 years) were compared. The median adjusted Ct value for asymptomatic children was 10.3 cycles higher than for symptomatic children (P < 0.0001), and VL were 3 to 4 logs lower than for symptomatic children (P < 0.0001); differences were consistent (P < 0.0001) across all four age brackets. These differences were consistent across all institutions and by sex, ethnicity, and race. Asymptomatic children with diabetes (odds ratio [OR], 6.5; P = 0.01), a recent contact (OR, 2.3; P = 0.02), and testing for surveillance (OR, 2.7; P = 0.005) had higher estimated risks of having a Ct value in the lowest quartile than children without, while an immunocompromised status had no effect. Children with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection had lower levels of virus in their nasopharynx/oropharynx than symptomatic children, but the timing of infection relative to diagnosis likely impacted levels in asymptomatic children. Caution is recommended when choosing diagnostic tests for screening of asymptomatic children.

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Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

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