Project description:ObjectiveTo examine whether the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths and the share of deaths in nursing homes changed in the second versus the first pandemic wave.Eligible dataWe considered all countries that had at least 4000 COVID-19 deaths occurring as of January 14, 2021, at least 200 COVID-19 deaths occurring in each of the two epidemic wave periods; and which had sufficiently detailed information available on the age distribution of these deaths. We also considered countries with data available on COVID-19 deaths of nursing home residents for the two waves.Main outcome measuresChange in the second wave versus the first wave in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in people <50 years ("young deaths") among all COVID-19 deaths and among COVID-19 deaths in people <70 years old; and change in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents among all COVID-19 deaths.ResultsData on age distribution were available for 14 eligible countries. Individuals <50 years old had small absolute difference in their share of the total COVID-19 deaths in the two waves across 13 high-income countries (absolute differences 0.0-0.4%). Their proportion was higher in Ukraine, but it decreased markedly in the second wave. The proportion of young deaths was lower in the second versus the first wave (summary prevalence ratio 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) with large between-country heterogeneity. The proportion of young deaths among deaths <70 years did not differ significantly across the two waves (summary prevalence ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.06). Eligible data on nursing home COVID-19 deaths were available for 11 countries. The share of COVID-19 deaths that were accounted by nursing home residents decreased in the second wave significantly and substantially in 8 countries (prevalence ratio estimates: 0.36 to 0.78), remained the same in Denmark and Norway and markedly increased in Australia.ConclusionsIn the examined countries, age distribution of COVID-19 deaths has been fairly similar in the second versus the first wave, but the contribution of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents to total fatalities has decreased in most countries in the second wave.
Project description:BackgroundCompelling evidence has shown cardiac involvement in COVID-19 patients. However, the overall majority of these studies use data obtained during the first wave of the pandemic, while recently differences have been reported in disease course and mortality between first- and second wave COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study was to analyze and compare cardiac pathology between first- and second wave COVID-19 patients.MethodsAutopsied hearts from first- (n = 15) and second wave (n = 10) COVID-19 patients and from 18 non-COVID-19 control patients were (immuno)histochemically analyzed. CD45+ leukocyte, CD68+ macrophage and CD3+ T lymphocyte infiltration, cardiomyocyte necrosis and microvascular thrombosis were quantified. In addition, the procoagulant factors Tissue Factor (TF), Factor VII (FVII), Factor XII (FXII), the anticoagulant protein Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 (DPP4) and the advanced glycation end-product N(ε)-Carboxymethyllysine (CML), as markers of microvascular thrombogenicity and dysfunction, were quantified.ResultsCardiac inflammation was significantly decreased in second wave compared to first wave COVID-19 patients, predominantly related to a decrease in infiltrated lymphocytes and the occurrence of lymphocytic myocarditis. This was accompanied by significant decreases in cardiomyocyte injury and microvascular thrombosis. Moreover, microvascular deposits of FVII and CML were significantly lower in second wave compared to first wave COVID-19 patients.ConclusionsThese results show that in our cohort of fatal COVID-19 cases cardiac inflammation, cardiomyocyte injury and microvascular thrombogenicity were markedly decreased in second wave compared to first wave patients. This may reflect advances in COVID-19 treatment related to an increased use of steroids in the second COVID-19 wave.
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has kept the world in suspense for the past year. In most federal countries such as Germany, locally varying conditions demand for state- or county-level decisions to adapt to the disease dynamics. However, this requires a deep understanding of the mesoscale outbreak dynamics between microscale agent models and macroscale global models. Here, we use a reparameterized SIQRD network model that accounts for local political decisions to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the pandemic in Germany at county resolution. Our optimized model reproduces state-wise cumulative infections and deaths as reported by the Robert Koch Institute and predicts the development for individual counties at convincing accuracy during both waves in spring and fall of 2020. We demonstrate the dominating effect of local infection seeds and identify effective measures to attenuate the rapid spread. Our model has great potential to support decision makers on a state and community politics level to individually strategize their best way forward during the months to come.
Project description:IntroductionIn the first wave, thrombotic complications were common in COVID-19 patients. It is unknown whether state-of-the-art treatment has resulted in less thrombotic complications in the second wave.MethodsWe assessed the incidence of thrombotic complications and overall mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to eight Dutch hospitals between September 1st and November 30th 2020. Follow-up ended at discharge, transfer to another hospital, when they died, or on November 30th 2020, whichever came first. Cumulative incidences were estimated, adjusted for competing risk of death. These were compared to those observed in 579 patients admitted in the first wave, between February 24th and April 26th 2020, by means of Cox regression techniques adjusted for age, sex and weight.ResultsIn total 947 patients with COVID-19 were included in this analysis, of whom 358 patients were admitted to the ICU; 144 patients died (15%). The adjusted cumulative incidence of all thrombotic complications after 10, 20 and 30 days was 12% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.8-15%), 16% (13-19%) and 21% (17-25%), respectively. Patient characteristics between the first and second wave were comparable. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for overall mortality in the second wave versus the first wave was 0.53 (95%CI 0.41-0.70). The adjusted HR for any thrombotic complication in the second versus the first wave was 0.89 (95%CI 0.65-1.2).ConclusionsMortality was reduced by 47% in the second wave, but the thrombotic complication rate remained high, and comparable to the first wave. Careful attention to provision of adequate thromboprophylaxis is invariably warranted.
Project description:Viral infections are known to lead to serious respiratory complications in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Hypothesizing that CF patients were a population at high risk for severe respiratory complications from SARS-CoV-2 infection, we conducted a national study to describe the clinical expression of COVID-19 in French CF patients. This prospective observational study involves all 47 French CF centers caring for approximately 7500 CF patients. Between March 1st and June 30th 2020, 31 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19: 19 had positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs; 1 had negative RT-PCR but typical COVID-19 signs on a CT scan; and 11 had positive SARS-CoV-2 serology. Fifteen were males, median (range) age was 31 (9-60) years, and 12 patients were living with a lung transplant. The majority of the patients had CF-related diabetes (n = 19, 61.3%), and a mild lung disease (n = 19, 65%, with percent-predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) > 70). Three (10%) patients remained asymptomatic. For the 28 (90%) patients who displayed symptoms, most common symptoms at admission were fever (n = 22, 78.6%), fatigue (n = 14, 50%), and increased cough (n = 14, 50%). Nineteen were hospitalized (including 11 out of the 12 post-lung transplant patients), seven required oxygen therapy, and four (3 post-lung transplant patients) were admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Ten developed complications (including acute respiratory distress syndrome in two post-lung transplant patients), but all recovered and were discharged home without noticeable short-term sequelae. Overall, French CF patients were rarely diagnosed with COVID-19. Further research should establish whether they were not infected or remained asymptomatic upon infection. In diagnosed cases, the short-term evolution was favorable with rare acute respiratory distress syndrome and no death. Post-lung transplant patients had more severe outcomes and should be monitored more closely.
Project description:ObjectiveTo identify differences in the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients seen during the first and second waves of COVID-19 in the EsSalud-Lambayeque health care network, Peru.MethodAnalytical cross-sectional study in 53,912 patients attended during the first and second waves of COVID-19. Cluster analysis based on Clustering Large Applications (CLARA) was applied to clinical-epidemiological data presented at the time of care. The two pandemic waves were compared using clinical-epidemiological data from epidemiological surveillance.ResultsCluster analysis identified four COVID-19 groups with a characteristic pattern. Cluster 1 included the largest number of participants in both waves and was predominantly female. Cluster 2 included patients with gastrointestinal, respiratory, and systemic symptoms. Cluster 3 was the "severe" cluster, which was characterized by patients with dyspnea, older adults, and individuals with some comorbidity (cardiovascular, diabetes, obesity). Cluster 4 included asymptomatic, pregnant, and less severe patients. We found differences in all clinical-epidemiological characteristics according to the cluster to which they belonged.ConclusionsUsing cluster analysis, we identified characteristic patterns among each group. Respiratory, gastrointestinal, dyspnea, anosmia, and ageusia symptoms were higher in the second than in the first COVID-19 wave.
Project description:PurposeTo investigate the impact of COVID-19 in Sweden on rates of knee and hip surgeries.MethodsWe used healthcare data for the population of the southernmost region in Sweden (1.4 million inhabitants). We did an interrupted time-series analysis to estimate changes in rates and trends of joint replacements (JR), arthroscopies, and fracture surgeries for knee or hip in April-December 2020 compared to pre-COVID-19 levels adjusting for seasonal variations.ResultsWe found a drop of 54% (95% CI 42%; 68%) and 42% (95% CI 32%; 52%), respectively, in the rate of JRs and arthroscopies in April 2020 when compared to the counterfactual scenario. This was followed by an increase that brought the rates of JRs and arthroscopies back to their predicted levels also during the beginning of the second wave (November-December 2020). Acute fracture surgeries were largely unaffected, i.e. did not show any decrease as observed for the other surgeries.ConclusionsIn southern Sweden, we observed a marked decrease in elective knee and hip surgeries following the first wave of Covid-19. The rates remained close to normal during the beginning of the second wave suggesting that important elective surgeries for patients with end-stage osteoarthritis can still be offered despite an ongoing pandemic provided adequate routines and hospital resources.