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Using Google Trends to Predict COVID-19 Vaccinations and Monitor Search Behaviours about Vaccines: A Retrospective Analysis of Italian Data.

ABSTRACT: Google Trends data are an efficient source for analysing internet search behaviour and providing valuable insights into community dynamics and health-related problems. In this article, we aimed to evaluate if Google Trends data could help monitor the COVID-19 vaccination trend over time and if the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines modified the interest of pregnant women in vaccination. Data related to Google internet searches and the number of vaccine doses administered in Italy were used. We found moderate to strong correlations between search volumes of vaccine-related terms and the number of vaccines administered. In particular, a model based on Google Trends with a 3-week lag showed the best performance in fitting the number of COVID-19 vaccinations over time. We also observed that the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines affected the search interest for the argument "vaccination in pregnancy" both quantitatively and qualitatively. There was a significant increase in the search interest after the launch of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. Qualitative analysis suggested that this increase was probably due to concerns about COVID-19 vaccines. Thus, our study suggests the benefits of using Google Trends data to predict the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, and to monitor feelings about vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Maugeri A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8778420 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSince the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, there has been much information about the disease and the virus has been in the spotlight, shared and commented upon on the Internet. However, much of this information is infodemics and can interfere with the advancement of the disease and that way that populations act. Thus, Brazil is a country that requires attention, as despite the fact that in almost two years of pandemic it has shown a devastating numbers of deaths and number of cases, and generates false, distorted and malicious news about the pandemic. This work intends to understand the attitudes of the Brazilian population using infodemic queries from the Google Trends search tool and social and income variables.MethodsData from infodemic research carried out on Google Trends, between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with socioeconomic data, such as income and education, were unified in a single database: standardization and exploratory and multivalued techniques based on grouping were used in the study.ResultsIn the analysis of the search trend of infodemic terms, it is clear that the categories of Prevention and Beliefs should stand out in Brazil, where there is a diverse culture. It is followed by the COVID-19 Treatment category, with treatments that were not those recommended by the authorities. Income transfer programs and information on socioeconomic variables did not have much impact on infodemic surveys, but it was observed that states where President Bolsonaro has more supporters had researched more infodemic information.ConclusionsIn a country as geographically large as Brazil, it is important that political authorities go to great lengths to disseminate reliable information and monitor the infodemic in the media and on the internet. It was concluded that the denial of the pandemic and the influence of political leaders influenced the search for infodemic information, contributing to a disorganization in the control of the disease and prevention measures.

Dataset Information

Using Google Trends to Predict COVID-19 Vaccinations and Monitor Search Behaviours about Vaccines: A Retrospective Analysis of Italian Data.

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