Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*
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ABSTRACT: Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1.
SUBMITTER: Siklos P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8782715 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from three representative cities of Peru-Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast-to characterize the temporal, age and geographic patterns of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in this country. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917-1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. RESULTS:A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920-March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918-1920 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918-1919 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918-1919 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918-1920 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3-1.5. CONCLUSIONS:We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.
| S-EPMC3144394 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918-1919, and continued during winter 1919-1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.
| S-EPMC2704924 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20-40 million people worldwide, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.
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Project description:Influenza vaccines capable of inducing cross-reactive or heterotypic immunity could be an important first line of prevention against a novel subtype virus. Influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) displaying functional viral proteins are effective vaccines against replication-competent homologous virus, but their ability to induce heterotypic immunity has not been adequately tested. To measure VLP vaccine efficacy against a known influenza pandemic virus, recombinant VLPs were generated from structural proteins of the 1918 H1N1 virus. Mucosal and traditional parenteral administrations of H1N1 VLPs were compared for the ability to protect against the reconstructed 1918 virus and a highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus isolated from a fatal human case. Mice that received two intranasal immunizations of H1N1 VLPs were largely protected against a lethal challenge with both the 1918 virus and the H5N1 virus. In contrast, mice that received two intramuscular immunizations of 1918 VLPs were only protected against a homologous virus challenge. Mucosal vaccination of mice with 1918 VLPs induced higher levels of cross-reactive immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA antibodies than did parenteral vaccination. Similarly, ferrets mucosally vaccinated with 1918 VLPs completely survived a lethal challenge with the H5N1 virus, while only a 50% survival rate was observed in parenterally vaccinated animals. These results suggest a strategy of VLP vaccination against a pandemic virus and one that stimulates heterotypic immunity against an influenza virus strain with threatening pandemic potential.
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Project description:Infections with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian (HPAI) and 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses cause uncontrolled local and systemic inflammation. The mechanism for this response is poorly understood, despite its importance as a determinant of virulence. Therefore we profiled cellular microRNAs of lung tissue from cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) infected with a HPAI and a less pathogenic 1918 H1N1 reassortant virus to understand microRNA contribution to host response. We identified 23 microRNAs associated with the extreme virulence of HPAI, with expression patterns inversely correlated with that of predicted gene targets. Pathway analyses confirmed that these targets were associated with aberrant and uncontrolled inflammatory responses and increased cell death. Importantly, similar microRNAs were associated with lethal 1918 pandemic virus infections in mice. This study suggests that virulence of highly pathogenic influenza viruses may be mediated in part by cellular microRNA through dysregulation of genes critical to the inflammatory process.
| S-EPMC3210927 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Analysis of historical data has strongly shaped our understanding of the epidemiology of pandemic influenza and informs analysis of current and future epidemics. Here, the authors analyzed previously unpublished documents from a large household survey of the "Spanish" H1N1 influenza pandemic, conducted in 1918, for the first time quantifying influenza transmissibility at the person-to-person level during that most lethal of pandemics. The authors estimated a low probability of person-to-person transmission relative to comparable estimates from seasonal influenza and other directly transmitted infections but similar to recent estimates from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The authors estimated a very low probability of asymptomatic infection, a previously unknown parameter for this pandemic, consistent with an unusually virulent virus. The authors estimated a high frequency of prior immunity that they attributed to a largely unreported influenza epidemic in the spring of 1918 (or perhaps to cross-reactive immunity). Extrapolating from this finding, the authors hypothesize that prior immunity partially protected some populations from the worst of the fall pandemic and helps explain differences in attack rates between populations. Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable.
| S-EPMC3695637 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To quantify age-specific excess-mortality rates and transmissibility patterns for the 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia, we reviewed archival mortality records. We identified a severe pandemic wave during October 1918-January1919 associated with 40 excess deaths per 10,000 population. The age profile for excess deaths was W shaped; highest mortality rates were among infants (<5 y of age), followed by elderly persons (>60 y) and young adults (25-29 y). Mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.4-1.7, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals. Boyacá, unlike cities in Europe, the United States, or Mexico, experienced neither a herald pandemic wave of deaths early in 1918 nor a recrudescent wave in 1920. In agreement with reports from Mexico, our study found no death-sparing effect for elderly persons in Colombia. We found regional disparities in prior immunity and timing of introduction of the 1918 pandemic virus across populations.
| S-EPMC3310082 | biostudies-literature
Project description:One of the most well-known yet least understood aspects of the 1918 influenza pandemic is the disproportionately high mortality among young adults. Contemporary accounts further describe the victims as healthy young adults, which is contrary to the understanding of selective mortality, which posits that individuals with the highest frailty within a group are at the greatest risk of death. We use a bioarchaeological approach, combining individual-level information on health and stress gleaned from the skeletal remains of individuals who died in 1918 to determine whether healthy individuals were dying during the 1918 pandemic or whether underlying frailty contributed to an increased risk of mortality. Skeletal data on tibial periosteal new bone formation were obtained from 369 individuals from the Hamann-Todd documented osteological collection in Cleveland, Ohio. Skeletal data were analyzed alongside known age at death using Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards analysis. The results suggest that frail or unhealthy individuals were more likely to die during the pandemic than those who were not frail. During the flu, the estimated hazards for individuals with periosteal lesions that were active at the time of death were over two times higher compared to the control group. The results contradict prior assumptions about selective mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Even among young adults, not everyone was equally likely to die-those with evidence of systemic stress suffered greater mortality. These findings provide time depth to our understanding of how variation in life experiences can impact morbidity and mortality even during a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen.
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Project description:In commemoration of the centennial of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the American Journal of Epidemiology has convened a collection of 12 articles that further illuminate the epidemiology of that pandemic and consider whether we would be more prepared if an equally deadly influenza virus were to emerge again. In the present commentary, we place these 12 articles in the context of a growing body of work on the archeo-epidemiology of past pandemics, the socioeconomic and geographic drivers of influenza mortality and natality impact, and renewed interest in immune imprinting mechanisms and the development of novel influenza vaccines. We also highlight persisting mysteries in the origins and severity of the 1918 pandemic and the need to preserve rapidly decaying information that may provide treasure troves for future generations.
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Project description:The incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is expected to more than double between 2010 and 2030. Accordingly, the use of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) agents for thromboembolic stroke prevention is anticipated to increase. The development of effective and safe antidotes is needed to address the unmet need for rapid anticoagulation reversal. The immediate role for these novel antidotes is for reversal of NOAC activity in life threatening bleeding and urgent surgical intervention. In addition, reversal agents may play an important role in simplifying bridging protocols in the peri-procedural period for catheter ablation of AF and elective surgery. Currently, novel reversal agents are either decoy drug receptors or small molecule non-specific anticoagulant activity inhibitors. These agents are at various stages of FDA investigation and approval, with emerging prospective data for safety and efficacy. The purpose of this review is to outline the currently developed NOAC molecular antagonists, their potential clinical roles and future directions.
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