Personally Tailored Survival Prediction of Patients With Follicular Lymphoma Using Machine Learning Transcriptome-Based Models.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mosquera Orgueira A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8784530 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Transcriptome prediction methods such as PrediXcan and FUSION have become popular in complex trait mapping. Most transcriptome prediction models have been trained in European populations using methods that make parametric linear assumptions like the elastic net (EN). To potentially further optimize imputation performance of gene expression across global populations, we built transcriptome prediction models using both linear and non-linear machine learning (ML) algorithms and evaluated their performance in comparison to EN. We trained models using genotype and blood monocyte transcriptome data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) comprising individuals of African, Hispanic, and European ancestries and tested them using genotype and whole-blood transcriptome data from the Modeling the Epidemiology Transition Study (METS) comprising individuals of African ancestries. We show that the prediction performance is highest when the training and the testing population share similar ancestries regardless of the prediction algorithm used. While EN generally outperformed random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and K nearest neighbor (KNN), we found that RF outperformed EN for some genes, particularly between disparate ancestries, suggesting potential robustness and reduced variability of RF imputation performance across global populations. When applied to a high-density lipoprotein (HDL) phenotype, we show including RF prediction models in PrediXcan revealed potential gene associations missed by EN models. Therefore, by integrating other ML modeling into PrediXcan and diversifying our training populations to include more global ancestries, we may uncover new genes associated with complex traits.
| S-EPMC8087249 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPredicting survival of recipients after liver transplantation is regarded as one of the most important challenges in contemporary medicine. Hence, improving on current prediction models is of great interest.Nowadays, there is a strong discussion in the medical field about machine learning (ML) and whether it has greater potential than traditional regression models when dealing with complex data. Criticism to ML is related to unsuitable performance measures and lack of interpretability which is important for clinicians.MethodsIn this paper, ML techniques such as random forests and neural networks are applied to large data of 62294 patients from the United States with 97 predictors selected on clinical/statistical grounds, over more than 600, to predict survival from transplantation. Of particular interest is also the identification of potential risk factors. A comparison is performed between 3 different Cox models (with all variables, backward selection and LASSO) and 3 machine learning techniques: a random survival forest and 2 partial logistic artificial neural networks (PLANNs). For PLANNs, novel extensions to their original specification are tested. Emphasis is given on the advantages and pitfalls of each method and on the interpretability of the ML techniques.ResultsWell-established predictive measures are employed from the survival field (C-index, Brier score and Integrated Brier Score) and the strongest prognostic factors are identified for each model. Clinical endpoint is overall graft-survival defined as the time between transplantation and the date of graft-failure or death. The random survival forest shows slightly better predictive performance than Cox models based on the C-index. Neural networks show better performance than both Cox models and random survival forest based on the Integrated Brier Score at 10 years.ConclusionIn this work, it is shown that machine learning techniques can be a useful tool for both prediction and interpretation in the survival context. From the ML techniques examined here, PLANN with 1 hidden layer predicts survival probabilities the most accurately, being as calibrated as the Cox model with all variables.Trial registrationRetrospective data were provided by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients under Data Use Agreement number 9477 for analysis of risk factors after liver transplantation.
| S-EPMC7667810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The risk of osteoporosis in breast cancer patients is higher than that in healthy populations. The fracture and death rates increase after patients are diagnosed with osteoporosis. We aimed to develop machine learning-based models to predict the risk of osteoporosis as well as the relative fracture occurrence and prognosis. We selected 749 breast cancer patients from two independent Chinese centers and applied six different methods of machine learning to develop osteoporosis, fracture and survival risk assessment models. The performance of the models was compared with that of current models, such as FRAX, OSTA and TNM, by applying ROC, DCA curve analysis, and the calculation of accuracy and sensitivity in both internal and independent external cohorts. Three models were developed. The XGB model demonstrated the best discriminatory performance among the models. Internal and external validation revealed that the AUCs of the osteoporosis model were 0.86 and 0.87, compared with the FRAX model (0.84 and 0.72)/OSTA model (0.77 and 0.66), respectively. The fracture model had high AUCs in the internal and external cohorts of 0.93 and 0.92, which were higher than those of the FRAX model (0.89 and 0.86). The survival model was also assessed and showed high reliability via internal and external validation (AUC of 0.96 and 0.95), which was better than that of the TNM model (AUCs of 0.87 and 0.87). Our models offer a solid approach to help improve decision making.
| S-EPMC9417646 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), an incurable B-cell malignancy, benefit from accurate pretreatment disease stratification. We curated an extensive database of 862 patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2022. A machine learning (ML) gradient-boosted model incorporated baseline features from clinicopathologic, cytogenetic, and genomic data with high predictive power discriminating between patients with indolent or responsive MCL and those with aggressive disease (AUC ROC = 0.83). In addition, we utilized the gradient-boosted framework as a robust feature selection method for multivariate logistic and survival modeling. The best ML models incorporated features from clinical and genomic data types highlighting the need for correlative molecular studies in precision oncology. As proof of concept, we launched our most accurate and practical models using an application interface, which has potential for clinical implementation. We designated the 20-feature ML model-based index the "integrative MIPI" or iMIPI and a similar 10-feature ML index the "integrative simplified MIPI" or iMIPI-s. The top 10 baseline prognostic features represented in the iMIPI-s are: lactase dehydrogenase (LDH), Ki-67%, platelet count, bone marrow involvement percentage, hemoglobin levels, the total number of observed somatic mutations, TP53 mutational status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance level, beta-2 microglobulin, and morphology. Our findings emphasize that prognostic applications and indices should include molecular features, especially TP53 mutational status. This work demonstrates the clinical utility of complex ML models and provides further evidence for existing prognostic markers in MCL.SignificanceOur model is the first to integrate a dynamic algorithm with multiple clinical and molecular features, allowing for accurate predictions of MCL disease outcomes in a large patient cohort.
| S-EPMC10395375 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for turfgrass growth. Instead of pursuing the maximum yield, most turfgrass managers use nitrogen (N) to maintain a sub-maximal growth rate. Few tools or soil tests exist to help managers guide N fertilizer decisions. Turf growth prediction models have the potential to be useful, but the currently existing turf growth prediction model only takes temperature into account, limiting its accuracy. This study developed machine-learning-based turf growth models using the random forest (RF) algorithm to estimate short-term turfgrass clipping yield. To build the RF model, a large set of variables were extracted as predictors including the 7-day weather, traffic intensity, soil moisture content, N fertilization rate, and the normalized difference red edge (NDRE) vegetation index. In this study, the data were collected from two putting greens where the turfgrass received 0 to 1,800 round/week traffic rates, various irrigation rates to maintain the soil moisture content between 9 and 29%, and N fertilization rates of 0 to 17.5 kg ha-1 applied biweekly. The RF model agreed with the actual clipping yield collected from the experimental results. The temperature and relative humidity were the most important weather factors. Including NDRE improved the prediction accuracy of the model. The highest coefficient of determination (R2) of the RF model was 0.64 for the training dataset and was 0.47 for the testing data set upon the evaluation of the model. This represented a large improvement over the existing growth prediction model (R 2 = 0.01). However, the machine-learning models created were not able to accurately predict the clipping production at other locations. Individual golf courses can create customized growth prediction models using clipping volume to eliminate the deviation caused by temporal and spatial variability. Overall, this study demonstrated the feasibility of creating machine-learning-based yield prediction models that may be able to guide N fertilization decisions on golf course putting greens and presumably other turfgrass areas.
| S-EPMC8600360 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared.MethodsAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE).ResultsBy analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively.ConclusionsComparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number.
| S-EPMC7497991 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesRelapse occurs in ~20% of patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) despite treatment adaption based on 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography response. The objective was to evaluate pre-treatment FDG PET/CT-derived machine learning (ML) models for predicting outcome in patients with cHL.MethodsAll cHL patients undergoing pre-treatment PET/CT at our institution between 2008 and 2018 were retrospectively identified. A 1.5 × mean liver standardised uptake value (SUV) and a fixed 4.0 SUV threshold were used to segment PET/CT data. Feature extraction was performed using PyRadiomics with ComBat harmonisation. Training (80%) and test (20%) cohorts stratified around 2-year event-free survival (EFS), age, sex, ethnicity and disease stage were defined. Seven ML models were trained and hyperparameters tuned using stratified 5-fold cross-validation. Area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to assess performance.ResultsA total of 289 patients (153 males), median age 36 (range 16-88 years), were included. There was no significant difference between training (n = 231) and test cohorts (n = 58) (p value > 0.05). A ridge regression model using a 1.5 × mean liver SUV segmentation had the highest performance, with mean training, validation and test AUCs of 0.82 ± 0.002, 0.79 ± 0.01 and 0.81 ± 0.12. However, there was no significant difference between a logistic model derived from metabolic tumour volume and clinical features or the highest performing radiomic model.ConclusionsOutcome prediction using pre-treatment FDG PET/CT-derived ML models is feasible in cHL patients. Further work is needed to determine optimum predictive thresholds for clinical use.Key points• A fixed threshold segmentation method led to more robust radiomic features. • A radiomic-based model for predicting 2-year event-free survival in classical Hodgkin lymphoma patients is feasible. • A predictive model based on ridge regression was the best performing model on our dataset.
| S-EPMC9403224 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Uncertainty quantification in artificial intelligence (AI)-based predictions of material properties is of immense importance for the success and reliability of AI applications in materials science. While confidence intervals are commonly reported for machine learning (ML) models, prediction intervals, i.e., the evaluation of the uncertainty on each prediction, are not as frequently available. In this work, we compare three different approaches to obtain such individual uncertainty, testing them on 12 ML-physical properties. Specifically, we investigated using the quantile loss function, machine learning the prediction intervals directly, and using Gaussian processes. We identify each approach's advantages and disadvantages and end up slightly favoring the modeling of the individual uncertainties directly, as it is the easiest to fit and, in most of the cases, minimizes over- and underestimation of the predicted errors. All data for training and testing were taken from the publicly available JARVIS-DFT database, and the codes developed for computing the prediction intervals are available through the JARVIS-tools package.
| S-EPMC8655759 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccidental hypothermia is a critical condition with high risks of fatal arrhythmia, multiple organ failure, and mortality; however, there is no established model to predict the mortality. The present study aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models for predicting in-hospital mortality using easily available data at hospital admission among the patients with accidental hypothermia.MethodThis study was secondary analysis of multi-center retrospective cohort study (J-point registry) including patients with accidental hypothermia. Adult patients with body temperature 35.0 °C or less at emergency department were included. Prediction models for in-hospital mortality using machine learning (lasso, random forest, and gradient boosting tree) were made in development cohort from six hospitals, and the predictive performance were assessed in validation cohort from other six hospitals. As a reference, we compared the SOFA score and 5A score.ResultsWe included total 532 patients in the development cohort [N = 288, six hospitals, in-hospital mortality: 22.0% (64/288)], and the validation cohort [N = 244, six hospitals, in-hospital mortality 27.0% (66/244)]. The C-statistics [95% CI] of the models in validation cohorts were as follows: lasso 0.784 [0.717-0.851] , random forest 0.794[0.735-0.853], gradient boosting tree 0.780 [0.714-0.847], SOFA 0.787 [0.722-0.851], and 5A score 0.750[0.681-0.820]. The calibration plot showed that these models were well calibrated to observed in-hospital mortality. Decision curve analysis indicated that these models obtained clinical net-benefit.ConclusionThis multi-center retrospective cohort study indicated that machine learning-based prediction models could accurately predict in-hospital mortality in validation cohort among the accidental hypothermia patients. These models might be able to support physicians and patient's decision-making. However, the applicability to clinical settings, and the actual clinical utility is still unclear; thus, further prospective study is warranted to evaluate the clinical usefulness.
| S-EPMC7797142 | biostudies-literature