Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8806194 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:PurposeAlthough veterans represent a significant proportion (7%) of the USA population, the COVID-19 disease impact within this group has been underreported. To bridge this gap, this study was undertaken.MethodA total of 419,559 veterans, who tested positive for COVID-19 disease in the Veterans Affairs hospital system from March 1st, 2020 to December 31st, 2021 with 60-days follow-up, was included in this retrospective review. Primary outcome measures included age-adjusted incidences and relative incidences of COVID-19 hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and case-fatality outcomes.ResultsOf this veteran cohort with COVID-19 disease, predominately 85.7% were male, 59.1% were White veterans, 27.5% were ages 50-64, and 40.5% were obese. Although Black veterans were at 63% higher relative risk (RR) for hospitalization incidences, they had a similar risk RR for in-hospital deaths compared to the White-veteran referent. Asian, American Indian/Alaska Native races, advanced age ≥65, and the underweight were at high RR for mechanical ventilator and/or in-hospital deaths compared to respective referent groups. Veterans who are ≥85 years old had a nearly 5-fold higher incidence of death compared respective referent group. The monthly outcomes for hospitalization, ventilation, and case-fatality data showed decreasing trends with time.ConclusionAn increased incidence of death was associated with age ≥65 years and underweight veterans compared to the referent group. Age-adjusted data, however, did not show any increased incidence of death in Black veterans compared to White veterans.Ratings of the quality of the evidence3 (Case-control studies; retrospective cohort study).
| S-EPMC9021125 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Monocytes may contribute to secondary injury after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We tested the association of absolute monocyte count with 30-day ICH case fatality in a multiethnic cohort.Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ERICH) study is a prospective, multicenter, case-control study of ICH among white, black, and Hispanic patients. In 240 adults with nontraumatic ICH within 24 hours of symptom onset, we evaluated the influence of ICH score and complete blood count components on 30-day case fatality using generalized linear models.Mean age was 62.8 years (SD, 14 years); 61.7% were men, 33.3% black, and 29.6% Hispanic. Median ICH volume was 9.9 mL (interquartile range, 4.4-26.7). After adjusting for patient age and initial hemoglobin, higher total white blood cell count (P=0.0011), driven by higher absolute neutrophil count (P=0.002), was associated with larger ICH volume, whereas absolute monocyte count was not (P=0.15). After adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale, ICH volume, location, and the presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage, baseline absolute monocyte count was independently associated with higher 30-day case-fatality (odds ratio, 5.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.87-15.49; P=0.0018), whereas absolute neutrophil count (odds ratio, 1.04; 0.46-2.32; P=0.93) and white blood cell count (odds ratio, 1.62; 0.58-4.54; P=0.36) were not.These data support an independent association between higher admission absolute monocyte count and 30-day case-fatality in ICH. Inquiry into monocyte-mediated pathways of inflammation and apoptosis may elucidate the basis for the observed association and may be targets for ICH neuroprotection.
| S-EPMC4519364 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundA reduction in mortality risk of COVID-19 throughout the first wave of the pandemic has been reported, but less is known about later waves. This study aimed to describe changes in hospitalizations and mortality of patients receiving inpatient geriatric care for COVID-19 or other causes during the pandemic.MethodsPatients 70 years and older hospitalized in geriatric hospitals in Stockholm for COVID-19 or other causes between March 2020-July 2021 were included. Data on the incidence of COVID-positive cases and 30-day mortality of the total ≥ 70-year-old population, in relation to weekly hospitalizations and mortality after hospital admissions were analyzed. Findings The total number of hospitalizations was 5,320 for COVID-19 and 32,243 for non-COVID-cases. In COVID-patients, the 30-day mortality rate was highest at the beginning of the first wave (29% in March-April 2020), reached 17% at the second wave peak (November-December) followed by 11-13% in the third wave (March-July 2021). The mortality in non-COVID geriatric patients showed a similar trend, but of lower magnitude (5-10%). During the incidence peaks, COVID-19 hospitalizations displaced non-COVID geriatric patients.InterpretationHospital admissions and 30-day mortality after hospitalizations for COVID-19 increased in periods of high community transmission, albeit with decreasing mortality rates from wave 1 to 3, with a probable vaccination effect in wave 3. Thus, the healthcare system could not compensate for the high community spread of COVID-19 during the pandemic peaks, which also led to displacing care for non-COVID geriatric patients.
| S-EPMC10501674 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We describe a dataset of account information and detailed transaction records for a digital complementary currency in Kenya. This "Sarafu system" initially encompassed several local, physical community currencies, which began transitioning to a feature-phone mobile interface in 2017. One unit of "Sarafu" is roughly equivalent in value to a Kenyan shilling. The published data includes anonymized account information for around 55,000 users and records of all Sarafu transactions conducted from January 25, 2020 to June 15, 2021. Transactions totaling around 300 million Sarafu capture various economic and financial activities such as purchases, transfers, and participation in savings and lending groups. So-called "chamas" are key to the operation of the Sarafu system and many such groups are labeled in the data. Describing this data contributes to research on the operation of community currencies, monetary systems, and economic networks in marginalized, food insecure areas. The observation period includes the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and several documented pilot projects and interventions.
| S-EPMC9298170 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate the benefits of vaccination on the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 infections.Design, setting and participantsThe US Department of Veterans Affairs has 130 medical centres. We created multivariate models from these data-339 772 patients with COVID-19-as of 30 September 2021.Outcome measuresThe primary outcome for all models was death within 60 days of the diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to derive adjusted ORs for vaccination and infection with Delta versus earlier variants. Models were adjusted for confounding factors, including demographics, comorbidity indices and novel parameters representing prior diagnoses, vital signs/baseline laboratory tests and outpatient treatments. Patients with a Delta infection were divided into eight cohorts based on the time from vaccination to diagnosis. A common model was used to estimate the odds of death associated with vaccination for each cohort relative to that of unvaccinated patients.Results9.1% of subjects were vaccinated. 21.5% had the Delta variant. 18 120 patients (5.33%) died within 60 days of their diagnoses. The adjusted OR for a Delta infection was 1.87±0.05, which corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 1.78. The overall adjusted OR for prior vaccination was 0.280±0.011 corresponding to an RR of 0.291. Raw CFR rose steadily after 10-14 weeks. The OR for vaccination remained stable for 10-34 weeks.ConclusionsOur CFR model controls for the severity of confounding factors and priority of vaccination, rather than solely using the presence of comorbidities. Our results confirm that Delta was more lethal than earlier variants and that vaccination is an effective means of preventing death. After adjusting for major selection biases, we found no evidence that the benefits of vaccination on CFR declined over 34 weeks. We suggest that this model can be used to evaluate vaccines designed for emerging variants.
| S-EPMC9791110 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the United States (US), Medical Examiners and Coroners (ME/Cs) have the legal authority for the management of mass fatality incidents (MFI). Yet, preparedness and operational capabilities in this sector remain largely unknown. The purpose of this study was twofold; first, to identify appropriate measures of preparedness, and second, to assess preparedness levels and factors significantly associated with preparedness.MethodsThree separate checklists were developed to measure different aspects of preparedness: MFI Plan Elements, Operational Capabilities, and Pre-existing Resource Networks. Using a cross-sectional study design, data on these and other variables of interest were collected in 2014 from a national convenience sample of ME/C using an internet-based, anonymous survey. Preparedness levels were determined and compared across Federal Regions and in relation to the number of Presidential Disaster Declarations, also by Federal Region. Bivariate logistic and multivariable models estimated the associations between organizational characteristics and relative preparedness.ResultsA large proportion (42%) of respondents reported that less than 25 additional fatalities over a 48-hour period would exceed their response capacities. The preparedness constructs measured three related, yet distinct, aspects of preparedness, with scores highly variable and generally suboptimal. Median scores for the three preparedness measures also varied across Federal Regions and as compared to the number of Presidential Declared Disasters, also by Federal Region. Capacity was especially limited for activating missing persons call centers, launching public communications, especially via social media, and identifying temporary interment sites. The provision of staff training was the only factor studied that was significantly (positively) associated (p < .05) with all three preparedness measures. Although ME/Cs ranked local partners, such as Offices of Emergency Management, first responders, and funeral homes, as the most important sources of assistance, a sizeable proportion (72%) expected federal assistance.ConclusionsThe three measures of MFI preparedness allowed for a broad and comprehensive assessment of preparedness. In the future, these measures can serve as useful benchmarks or criteria for assessing ME/Cs preparedness. The study findings suggest multiple opportunities for improvement, including the development and implementation of national strategies to ensure uniform standards for MFI management across all jurisdictions.
| S-EPMC4320632 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have suggested that elevated neutrophils, monocytes, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) may be associated with poor outcomes in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We sought to determine whether white blood cell (WBC) types were independently associated with poor outcome in ICH in a large cohort.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of primary ICH at two academic centers. Cases were identified via ICD-9 code and verified via physician review. We included only those patients with WBC types obtained within 24 h of ICH onset.ResultsWe identified 593 patients with primary ICH and WBC differentials in the first 24 h. Independent factors (OR, 95% CI) associated with 30-day case fatality were age > 80 (2.4 (1.4, 4.2)), p = 0.0023; NIHSS greater than median (3.9 (2.4, 6.3)), p < 0.0001; ICH volume quartiles (Q1: ref, Q2: 1.5 (0.7, 3.0), Q3: 3.2 (1.6, 6.6), Q4: 11.9 (5.3, 26.4)), p < 0.0001; non-lobar location (3.3 (1.9, 5.9)), p ≤ 0.0001; IVH (2.3 (1.4, 3.6)), p = 0.0005, monocytes greater than median (1.6 (1.0, 2.4)), p = 0.0457, and anticoagulant use (3.2 (1.8, 5.6)), p < 0.0001. Elevated NLR was not associated with higher case fatality.ConclusionsWe found that elevated monocytes were independently associated with 30-day case fatality. Future studies will investigate whether there are subgroups of ICH patients, including those with particular blood or imaging biomarkers, in which WBC types might help predict poor outcome and provide targets for intervention.
| S-EPMC7791001 | biostudies-literature
Project description:On January 26 2020, the first Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) case was reported in Arizona of an individual with travel history (3rd case in the US). Here, we report on early SARS-CoV-2 sentinel surveillance in Tempe, Arizona. Genomic characterization identified an isolate encoding a 27 amino acid in-frame deletion in accessory protein ORF7a, the ortholog of SARS-CoV immune antagonist ORF7a/X4 .
| S-EPMC7276018 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Yellow fever virus remains a major threat in low resource countries in South America and Africa despite the existence of an effective vaccine. In Senegal and particularly in the eastern part of the country, periodic sylvatic circulation has been demonstrated with varying degrees of impact on populations in perpetual renewal. We report an outbreak that occurred from October 2020 to February 2021 in eastern Senegal, notified and managed through the synergistic effort yellow fever national surveillance implemented by the Senegalese Ministry of Health in collaboration with the World Health Organization, the countrywide 4S network set up by the Ministry of Health, the Institut Pasteur de Dakar, and the surveillance of arboviruses and hemorrhagic fever viruses in human and vector populations implemented since mid 2020 in eastern Senegal. Virological analyses highlighted the implication of sylvatic mosquito species in virus transmission. Genomic analysis showed a close relationship between the circulating strain in eastern Senegal, 2020, and another one from the West African lineage previously detected and sequenced two years ago from an unvaccinated Dutch traveler who visited the Gambia and Senegal before developing signs after returning to Europe. Moreover, genome analysis identified a 6-nucleotide deletion in the variable domain of the 3'UTR with potential impact on the biology of the viral strain that merits further investigations. Integrated surveillance of yellow fever virus but also of other arboviruses of public health interest is crucial in an ecosystem such as eastern Senegal.
| S-EPMC8402698 | biostudies-literature