Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for 2018 FIGO stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer: a large multicenter study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Nomograms are predictive tools widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. We aimed to develop/validate a nomogram to predict the postsurgical 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) probability for patients with stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer [2018 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO 2018)].

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled cervical cancer patients at 47 hospitals with stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 disease from the Clinical Diagnosis and Treatment for Cervical Cancer in China database. All patients were assigned to either the development or validation cohort (75% of patients used for model construction and 25% used for validation). OS and DFS were defined as the clinical endpoints. Clinicopathological variables were analyzed based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. A nomogram was established and validated internally (with bootstrapping) and externally, and its performance was assessed according to the concordance index (C-index), receiver-operating characteristic curve, and calibration plot.

Results

In total, 4,065 patients were enrolled and assigned to the development cohort (n=3,074) or validation cohort (n=991). The OS nomogram was constructed based on age, FIGO stage, stromal invasion, and lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI). The DFS nomogram was constructed based on the FIGO stage, histological type, stromal invasion, and LVSI. Both nomograms showed greater discrimination than the FIGO 2018 staging system in the development cohort [OS nomogram vs. FIGO 2018: C-index =0.69 vs. 0.61, area under the curve (AUC): 69.8 vs. 60.3; DFS nomogram vs. FIGO 2018: C-index =0.64 vs. 0.57, AUC: 62.6 vs. 56.9], and the same results were observed the definition in the validation cohort. Calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities of 5-year OS/DFS in the development and validation cohorts. We stratified the patients into 3 subgroups with differences in OS/DFS. Each risk subgroup presented a distinct prognosis.

Conclusions

We successfully developed a robust and powerful model for predicting 5-year OS/DFS in stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer (FIGO 2018) for the first time. Internal and external validation showed that the model had great prediction performance and was superior to the currently utilized FIGO staging system.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8848419 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for 2018 FIGO stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer: a large multicenter study.

Chen Xiaolin X Duan Hui H Liu Ping P Lin Lihong L Ni Yan Y Li Donglin D Dai Encheng E Zhan Xuemei X Li Pengfei P Huo Zhifeng Z Bin Xiaonong X Lang Jinghe J Chen Chunlin C

Annals of translational medicine 20220101 2

<h4>Background</h4>Nomograms are predictive tools widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. We aimed to develop/validate a nomogram to predict the postsurgical 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) probability for patients with stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer [2018 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO 2018)].<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively enrolled cervical cancer patients at 47 hospitals with stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 disease from th ...[more]

PMID: 35282114

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Project description:BackgroundAccording to international guidelines, standard treatment (ST) with curative intent in cervical cancer (CC) comprises radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy in early stages (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2009 IB1, IIA1), adjuvant chemoradiation is recommended based on risk factors upon final pathology. Definitive chemoradiation is recommended in locally advanced stages (FIGO 2009 IB2, IIA2, IIB). Total mesometrial resection (TMMR) with therapeutic lymph node dissection (tLND) without adjuvant radiation has emerged as a promising treatment. Here we compare oncologic outcome by TMMR + tLND or ST.MethodsIn this observational cohort study, women treated according to international guidelines were identified in the population-based registries from Sweden and women treated with TMMR were identified in the Leipzig Mesometrial Resection (MMR) Study Database (DRKS 0001517) 2011-2020. Relevant clinical and tumour related variables were extracted. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) by ST or TMMR was analysed with log-rank test, cumulative incidence function and proportional hazard regression yielding hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for relevant confounders.FindingsBetween 2011 and 2020, 1007 women were included in the final analysis. 733 women were treated according to ST and 274 with TMMR. RFS at five years was 77.9% (95% CI 74.3-81.1) and 82.6% (95% CI 77.2-86.9) for the ST and TMMR cohorts respectively (p = 0.053). In early-stage CC, RFS was higher after TMMR as compared to ST, 91.2% vs 81.8% (p = 0.002). In the adjusted analysis, TMMR was associated with a lower hazard of recurrence (HR 0.39; 95% CI 0.22-0.69) and death (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.21-0.86) compared to ST. The absolute difference in risk of recurrence at 5 years was 9.4% (95% CI 3.2-15.7) in favor of TMMR. In locally advanced CC, no significant differences in RFS or OS was observed.InterpretationCompared to ST, TMMR without radiation therapy was associated with superior oncologic outcomes in women with early-stage cervical cancer whereas no difference was observed in locally advanced disease. Our findings together with previous evidence suggest that TMMR may be considered the primary option for both early-stage and locally advanced cervical cancer confined to the Müllerian compartment.FundingThis study was supported by grants from Centre for Clinical Research Sörmland (Sweden) and Region Stockholm (Sweden).

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Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for 2018 FIGO stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer: a large multicenter study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for 2018 FIGO stages IB1, IB2, and IIA1 cervical cancer: a large multicenter study.

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