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Future energy: in search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

ABSTRACT: Growing societal pressures, technological trends and government and industry actions are moving the world toward decarbonization and away from the “business-as-usual”. As such, the concept of a single/obvious “business as usual” or “reference” scenario is no longer relevant. Instead, there are multiple plausible futures that should be explored. We contribute one such scenario that carefully considers emission-reduction trends and actions that are likely in the future, absent globally coordinated mitigation effort. We explore the long-term implications for energy, emissions, and temperature outcomes if the world continues to address climate change in the way it has so far—through piecemeal actions and growing social and technological pressures. This Growing Pressures scenario results in a central scenario outcome of about 3 °C of surface temperature warming, which is higher than the “well below 2 °C” level aspired by the Paris Agreement, but lower than many widely used “no-policy” scenarios. Ongoing and growing pressures of change, the roots of which are clearly visible today, could deliver a plausible energy transition scenario to near zero emissions that plays out over the coming century. While a more aggressive transition is clearly required, this finding highlights the need to bring actions forward in time to achieve an improved outcome making use of clearly identifiable policies and technologies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10018-021-00339-1.

SUBMITTER: Morris J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8853390 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Every year, the life science field spends billions of dollars on educational activities worldwide. The continuing professional development of employees, especially in this field, encompasses great challenges. Emerging technologies appear to offer opportunity, but relatively little research has been done on the effectiveness of pedagogies and tools that have been used in the life sciences, and even less research has been devoted to understanding the potential power of emerging options that might determine the field's future. OBJECTIVE:In collaboration with the Life Sciences Trainers & Educators Network (LTEN), this study investigated the current state of the pedagogies and tools currently adopted by corporate training professionals in the life sciences as well as the professionals' perceptions of the impacts of emerging technologies on training. METHODS:This study adopted a mixed methods approach that included a survey and a follow-up interview. The survey consists of 18 broad questions with 15 subquestions in each of the five specific sectors of the life sciences field. Interviews were conducted by phone and lasted approximately 40 minutes, covering 18 questions designed to follow-up on findings from the survey items. RESULTS:Both survey and interview results indicated that the professionals were not satisfied with the status quo and that training and education in this field need to change. Most of the techniques and tools currently used have been used for some time. The professionals surveyed were not satisfied with the current techniques and tools and did not find them cost-effective. In addition, the respondents pictured the future of training in this field to be more engaging and effective. CONCLUSIONS:This is the first study in a series designed to better understand education and training in the life sciences on a macro level, in order to build a foundation for progress and evolution of the future landscape. Next steps involve developing strategies for how to extend this vision throughout individual organizations.

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Future energy: in search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

Supplementary Information

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