Trends in colon and rectal cancer mortality in Australia from 1972 to 2015 and associated projections to 2040.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Luo Q
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8900106 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Trends in colon and rectal cancer mortality in Australia from 1972 to 2015 and associated projections to 2040.
Luo Qingwei Q Lew Jie-Bin JB Steinberg Julia J Worthington Joachim J Yu Xue Qin XQ Caruana Michael M Soerjomataram Isabelle I Bray Freddie F Lawrance Sheena S Arcorace Maria M O'Connell Dianne L DL Canfell Karen K Feletto Eleonora E
Scientific reports 20220307 1
Previously published sub-site Australian projections for colon and rectal cancers to 2035 using the World Health Organization's mortality database sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) predicted mortality rate decreases for colon cancer and increases for rectal cancer. There are complexities related to the interpretation of ABS's Australian colon and rectal cancer mortality rates, which could lead to possible inaccuracies in mortality rates for these sub-sites. The largest Austr ...[more]
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Project description:ImportanceThe burden of liver cancer varies worldwide. An upward trend in both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality in the past 2 decades has been observed.ObjectiveTo assess observed HCC-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) in the US for 2006 to 2022 and provide ASMR projections through 2040.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the National Vital Statistics System, which is accessible through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research website. Data on deaths attributed to HCC (from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2022) were obtained for adults 25 years or older and were stratified by liver disease etiology, age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Etiologies included alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes were (1) observed ASMRs of HCC per 100 000 persons using Joinpoint regression (National Cancer Institute) to assess trends during 2006 to 2022 and (2) ASMRs projected for 2023 to 2040 using Prophet and AutoARIMA modeling.ResultsThis study included 188 280 HCC-related deaths from 2006 to 2022. Most deaths occurred among males (77.4%). The annual percentage change was 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2% to 7.7%) for 2006 to 2009 and decreased to 1.8% (95% CI, 0.7% to 2.0%) for 2009 to 2022, with an overall observed ASMR of 5.03 per 100 000 persons in 2022 and a projected ASMR of 6.39 per 100 000 persons by 2040, with consistent trends for both sexes. By etiology, ASMRs decreased for HCV- and HBV-related mortality but increased for ALD- and MASLD-related mortality. In 2022, MASLD surpassed HBV as the third-leading cause of HCC-related death and was projected to overtake HCV in 2032 as the second-leading cause; ALD was projected to be the leading cause of HCC-related death in 2026. In 2022, the ASMR was higher among individuals aged 65 years or older compared with those aged 25 to 64 years (18.37 vs 1.79 per 100 000 persons). The American Indian or Alaska Native population had the largest increase in projected ASMR by 2040 (14.71 per 100 000 persons) compared with the Asian population (3.03 per 100 000 persons).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, ASMRs for ALD- and MASLD-related HCC death increased rapidly from 2006 to 2022; ALD-related HCC was projected to be the leading cause by 2026, with MASLD as the second-leading cause by 2032. These findings may serve as a reference for public health decision-making and timely identification of groups at high risk of HCC death.
| S-EPMC11574689 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing.ObjectiveThis study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England.MethodsThe study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections.ResultsWe project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care.ConclusionThe numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased.
| S-EPMC7047814 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors.MethodsData on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years.ResultsGlobally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≥70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040.ConclusionsThe burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend.
| S-EPMC11257875 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Aims: To examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000-2020 and make projections of perceived work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. Methods: Ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland between 2000 and 2020 were used (overall N = 61,087, range 817-18,956). Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person's lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten (0-10) were classified into three groups: limited (0-5), intermediate (6-7), and good (8-10). Multiple imputation was used in projecting work ability. Results: Examining past trends by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined steadily over time among older birth-cohorts, while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was seen. Trends by 5-year age groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20-44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45-54-year-olds, and an improving trend among 55-year-olds and older was observed for the period 2000-2020. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55-59-year-olds, 58% among the 60-69-year-olds and 49% among the 70-74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggested a declining work ability in the future among all age groups included (30-74 years). By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline by 10 to 15 percentage points among 45-74-year-olds. Conclusions: The projections suggest declining work ability in the future. Efforts to counteract the decline in work ability are needed.
| S-EPMC11742703 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLong-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes.MethodsWe examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044.FindingsOver the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases.InterpretationDespite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions.FundingNo funding was provided for this study.
| S-EPMC10920049 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGastric cancer (GC) is a common malignancy of the digestive system, with significant geographical variation in its disease burden.MethodsThis study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to analyze three key indicators: incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Initially, a detailed analysis of the GC burden was conducted from global, regional, national, gender, and age perspectives. Subsequently, the percentage change and average annual percent change (AAPC) of GC were calculated to understand the trends in disease burden. Decomposition analysis and frontier analysis were then performed. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends in age-standardized rates (ASRs) of GC up to 2040.ResultsIn 2021, there were 1.23 million (95% UI: 1.05-1.41 million) new cases of GC globally, with 0.95 million (95% UI: 0.82-1.10million) deaths and 22.79 million (95% UI: 19.58-26.12 million) DALYs. Compared to 1990, the global ASRs of GC has declined, but new cases and deaths have increased. For females, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate were 8.6, 7.1, and 165.6 per 100,000, with AAPCs of -2.1, -2.4, and -2.6. For males, they were 20.9, 16.0, and 371.2 per 100,000, with AAPCs of -1.6, -2.1, and -2.3. ASRs fluctuated with increasing Socio-demographic Index (SDI), being higher in middle and high-middle SDI regions. Decomposition analysis indicated negative effects from epidemiological trends on GC burden, while population growth and aging had positive effects. Frontier analysis showed that middle and high-middle SDI regions had more potential for reducing ASRs. Predictions indicate a continued decline in ASRs for both genders by 2040.ConclusionDespite progress in controlling GC, the number of new cases and deaths globally is rising due to population growth and aging. This highlights the need for effective prevention and control strategies.
| S-EPMC11669584 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBetween 1990 and 2017, Nepal experienced a shift in the burden of disease from communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional (CMNN) diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). With an increasing ageing population and life-style changes including tobacco use, harmful alcohol consumption, unhealthy diets, and insufficient physical activity, the proportion of total deaths from NCDs will continue to increase. An analysis of current diseases pattern and projections of the trends informs planning of health interventions. This analysis aims to project the mortality and risk factor of disease until 2040, based on past trends.MethodsThis study uses secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study which analyses historic data from 1990 to 2016 to predict key variables such as, the mortality rates, life expectancy and Years of Life Lost for different causes of death from 2017 to 2040. 'GBD Foresight Visualization', a visualisation tool publicly available in the webpage of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was the source of data for this analysis. GBD forecasting uses three-component modelling process: the first component captures variations due to risk factors and interventions, the second takes into consideration the variation due to measures of development quantified as social development index and the third uses an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. We extracted Nepal specific data from it and reported number of deaths, mortality rates (per 100,000 population) as well as causes of death for the period 1990 to 2040.ResultsIn 1990, CMNN diseases were responsible for approximately two-thirds (63.6%) of total deaths in Nepal. The proportion of the deaths from the CMNN diseases has reduced to 26.8% in 2015 and is estimated to be about a fifth of the 1990 figure (12.47%) in 2040. Conversely, deaths from NCDs reflect an upward trend. NCDs claimed a third of total deaths (29.91%) in the country in 1990, while in 2015, were responsible for about two-thirds of the total deaths (63.31%). In 2040, it is predicted that NCDs will contribute to over two-thirds (78.64%) of total deaths in the country. Less than a tenth (6.49%) of the total deaths in Nepal in 1990 were associated with injuries which increased to 13.04% in 2015 but is projected to decrease to 8.89% in 2040. In 1990, metabolic risk factors including high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index and impaired kidney functions collectively contributed to a tenth of the total deaths (10.38%) in Nepal, whereas, in 2040 more than a third (37.31%) of the total deaths in the country could be attributed to it.ConclusionA reverse of the situation in 1990, NCDs are predicted to be the leading cause of deaths and metabolic risk factors are predicted to contribute to the highest proportion of deaths in 2040. NCDs could demand a major share of resources within the health sector requiring extensive multi-sectoral prevention measures, re-allocation of resources and re-organisation of the health system to cater for long-term care.
| S-EPMC7714223 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBladder cancer (BCa) is one of the most common urological malignancies worldwide. This study examines the global epidemiological profile of BCa incidence and mortality in 2020 and the projected burden to 2040.MethodsThe estimated number of BCa cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using the world standard. The predicted BCa incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections.ResultsGlobally, approximately 573 000 new BCa cases and 213 000 deaths occurred in 2020, corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 5.6 and 1.9 per 100 000, respectively. The incidence and mortality rates were approximately 4-fold higher in men (9.5 and 3.3 per 100 000, respectively) than women (2.4 and 0.9, respectively). Across world regions, incidence rates varied at least 12-fold among men and 8-fold among women, with the highest ASIRs for both men and women detected in Southern Europe (26.5 and 5.8 per 100 000, respectively) and Western Europe (21.5 and 5.8, respectively) and the lowest in Middle Africa (2.2) in men and South-Central Asia (0.7) in women. The highest ASMRs for both men and women were found in Northern Africa (9.2 and 1.8 per 100 000, respectively). By 2040, the annual number of new BCa cases and deaths will increase to 991 000 (72.8% increase from 2020) and 397 000 (86.6% increase), respectively.ConclusionsGeographical distributions of BCa incidence and mortality uncovered higher risk of BCa incidence in Southern and Western European populations and higher risk of mortality in Northern African populations. Considering the predicted 73% and 87% increase in annual BCa cases and deaths by 2040 globally, respectively, there is an urgent need to develop and accelerate BCa control initiatives for high-risk populations to tackle global BCa burden and narrow its geographical disparities.
| S-EPMC10502766 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the main risk factor for skin cancer. Denmark has one of the highest incidences of skin cancer in the world. In 2007, a long-term sun safety campaign was launched in Denmark. We have evaluated the effects on prevalence of sunburn and modeled the effects on future melanoma incidence.Sunburn was evaluated by annual cross-sectional surveys representative for the Danish population on age, gender, and region. During 2007-2015, survey data were collected for 33.315 Danes. Cutaneous Melanoma incidences were modeled in the Prevent program, using population projections, historic incidence, sunburn exposure, and relative risk of sunburn on melanoma.The prevalence of sunburn in Denmark was reduced with 1% annually during 2007 to 2015. The campaign is estimated to have reduced the number of skin cancer cases with 664 annually in 2040 and 14.326 totally during 2007 to 2040. If the campaign was terminated in 2015 and sunburn rates return to precampaign level there would be no annual reduction in 2040 while in total the reduction would be 4.024 cases for 2007 to 2040. A continuous campaign until 2040 would yield annual reductions of 2.121 cases by 2040 and a total of 29.729 cases for the entire period.We have showed the value of prevention and the value of long-term planning in prevention campaigning. Sunburn use was reduced significantly during 2007-2015 and further reductions are possible. Consequently, we predict significant fewer skin cancer cases as anticipated.
| S-EPMC6203499 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignancy with notable recent shifts in its burden distribution. Current data on CRC burden can guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies for efficient resource allocation.MethodsThis study utilized data from the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study. Initially, a series of descriptive statistics were performed on the incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CRC. Percentage changes and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were then calculated to understand the trends in CRC disease burden. Decomposition and frontier analyses were conducted, and finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict changes in ASRs up to 2040.ResultsThe GBD 2021 estimates indicate a significant increase in the global incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of CRC from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased (AAPC: 0.2), while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC: -0.72) and age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC: -0.73) decreased. Males bore a higher disease burden than females, though the trends in disease burden changes were similar for both sexes. Although developed regions had higher incident cases, deaths, and DALYs, they showed more significant declines in ASRs. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary drivers of the increased disease burden. Frontier analysis showed that as the Socio-demographic Index increased, the disparity in CRC ASRs among countries widened, with developed regions having greater potential to reduce these rates. The By 2040, the BAPC model projects significant declines in global ASMR and age-standardized DALYs rates, while ASIR is expected to decrease in females but increase in males and across both sexes.ConclusionCRC remains a significant public health issue with regional and gender differences, necessitating region- and population-specific prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC11779618 | biostudies-literature