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Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing. OBJECTIVE:This study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England. METHODS:The study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections. RESULTS:We project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care. CONCLUSION:The numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased.

SUBMITTER: Wittenberg R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7047814 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.

Wittenberg Raphael R Hu Bo B Jagger Carol C Kingston Andrew A Knapp Martin M Comas-Herrera Adelina A King Derek D Rehill Amritpal A Banerjee Sube S

Age and ageing 20200201 2

<h4>Background</h4>The number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing.<h4>Objective</h4>This study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England.<h4>Methods</h4>The study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulat ...[more]

PMID: 31808792

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Project description:Objective To forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease.Design Modelling study.Setting General adult population of England and Wales.Participants The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) is a representative panel study with six waves of data across 2002-13. Men and women aged 50 or more years, selected randomly, and their cohabiting partners were recruited to the first wave of ELSA (2002-03). 11392 adults participated (response rate 67%). To maintain representativeness, refreshment participants were recruited to the study at subsequent waves. The total analytical sample constituted 17?906 people. Constant objective criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain dementia cases at each wave.Main outcome measures To estimate calendar trends in dementia incidence, correcting for bias due to loss to follow-up of study participants, a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data was fitted to ELSA data. To forecast future dementia prevalence, the probabilistic Markov model IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model) was developed. IMPACT-BAM models transitions of the population aged 35 or more years through states of cardiovascular disease, cognitive and functional impairment, and dementia, to death. It enables prediction of dementia prevalence while accounting for the growing pool of susceptible people as a result of increased life expectancy and the competing effects due to changes in mortality, and incidence of cardiovascular disease.Results In ELSA, dementia incidence was estimated at 14.3 per 1000 person years in men and 17.0/1000 person years in women aged 50 or more in 2010. Dementia incidence declined at a relative rate of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 2.9%) for each year during 2002-13. Using IMPACT-BAM, we estimated there were approximately 767?000 (95% uncertainty interval 735?000 to 797?000) people with dementia in England and Wales in 2016. Despite the decrease in incidence and age specific prevalence, the number of people with dementia is projected to increase to 872?000, 1?092?000, and 1?205?000 in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. A sensitivity analysis without the incidence decline gave a much larger projected growth, of more than 1.9 million people with dementia in 2040.Conclusions Age specific dementia incidence is declining. The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy.

Project description:Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries.We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure.By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need.If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.

Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about how multimorbidity, dementia and increasing age combine to influence health outcomes or utilization. Our objective was to examine the joint associations between age, dementia and burden of morbidity with mortality and other clinical outcomes.MethodsWe did a retrospective population-based cohort study of all adults aged 65 years and older residing in Alberta, Canada, between 2002 and 2013. We used validated algorithms applied to administrative and laboratory data from the provincial health ministry to assess the presence/absence of dementia and 29 other morbidities, and their associations with mortality (our primary outcome), other clinical outcomes (emergency department visits, all-cause hospital admissions) and a proxy for loss of independent living (discharge to long-term care). Cox and Poisson models were adjusted for year-varying covariates. A 3-way interaction was modelled for dementia, the number of comorbidities, and age.ResultsThere were 610 457 adults aged 65 years and older living in Alberta over the study period. Over median follow-up of 6.8 years, 153 125 (25.1%) participants died and 5569 (0.9%) were discharged to long-term care. The prevalence of people with at least 3 morbidities was 33.7% in 2003 and 50.2% in 2012. The prevalence of dementia rose from 6.2% in fiscal year 2003 to 8.3% in fiscal year 2012, representing a net increase of approximately 13 700 people. The likelihood of all 4 outcomes increased with age and with greater burden of morbidity; the presence of dementia further increased these risks. For example, the risk of mortality increased by 1.54 to 6.38 in the presence of dementia, depending on age and morbidity burden. The risk associated with dementia was attenuated by increasing comorbidity.InterpretationOlder age, multimorbidity and dementia are all strongly correlated with adverse health outcomes as well as a proxy for loss of independent living. The increasing prevalences of dementia and multimorbidity over time suggest the need for coordinated national strategies aimed at mitigating the health challenges associated with the aging of the population.

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Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.

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Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.

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