Dataset Information

Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the main drivers of uncertainties in simulated irrigated maize yield under historical conditions as well as scenarios of increased temperatures and altered irrigation water availability. Using APSIM, MONICA, and SIMPLACE crop models, we quantified the relative contributions of three irrigation water allocation strategies, three sowing dates, and three maize cultivars to the uncertainty in simulated yields. The water allocation strategies were derived from historical records of farmer's allocation patterns in drip-irrigation scheme of the Genil-Cabra region, Spain (2014-2017). By considering combinations of allocation strategies, the adjusted R² values (showing the degree of agreement between simulated and observed yields) increased by 29% compared to unrealistic assumptions of considering only near optimal or deficit irrigation scheduling. The factor decomposition analysis based on historic climate showed that irrigation strategies was the main driver of uncertainty in simulated yields (66%). However, under temperature increase scenarios, the contribution of crop model and cultivar choice to uncertainty in simulated yields were as important as irrigation strategy. This was partially due to different model structure in processes related to the temperature responses. Our study calls for including information on irrigation strategies conducted by farmers to reduce the uncertainty in simulated yields at field scale.

SUBMITTER: Kamali B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8904498 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain.

Kamali Bahareh B Lorite Ignacio J IJ Webber Heidi A HA Rezaei Ehsan Eyshi EE Gabaldon-Leal Clara C Nendel Claas C Siebert Stefan S Ramirez-Cuesta Juan Miguel JM Ewert Frank F Ojeda Jonathan J JJ

Scientific reports 20220308 1

This study investigates the main drivers of uncertainties in simulated irrigated maize yield under historical conditions as well as scenarios of increased temperatures and altered irrigation water availability. Using APSIM, MONICA, and SIMPLACE crop models, we quantified the relative contributions of three irrigation water allocation strategies, three sowing dates, and three maize cultivars to the uncertainty in simulated yields. The water allocation strategies were derived from historical recor ...[more]

PMID: 35260727

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Project description:Energy and carbon (C) footprints of agricultural production practices have garnered high attention due to rising energy costs and increasing global warming. However, the contribution of conservation and regenerative farming practices, including cover cropping, on energy and C footprints have not yet been documented for cropping systems in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluated the energy and C footprint of cover crop integrated silage maize (Zea mays L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) production systems in the semi-arid region of the southwestern US. The treatments were mixtures of winter cover crops: i) grasses and legumes (GL), ii) grasses, brassicas, and legumes (GBL), iii) grasses and brassicas (GB), and iv) no cover crops (NCC) control for each crop production system. Results showed cover crops had 24.1-24.5% greater energy input than NCC. In silage maize rotation, energy output was 17-22% greater in GBL and GL than in NCC. In silage sorghum rotation, the energy output was 15-24% greater in all cover crops than in NCC. The resulting net energy was 16-21% greater in GBL and GL than in NCC under silage maize, while it was 18-24% greater in GBL and GB than in NCC under silage sorghum. In the silage maize system, the C-footprint per kg yield was not different among treatments, whereas in silage sorghum, it was 58% greater in GBL than in NCC. The benefit-to-cost ratio was greater than one for all treatments, but the additional revenue through C credit programs could make cover cropping a more feasible and beneficial approach, improving economic and environmental sustainability while producing silage crops. While the C footprint was crop rotation specific, cover cropping should be encouraged over crop-fallow systems to producers in semi-arid environments to reduce energy usage and increase C-credit benefits. Clear national and state policy on the C credit program will also enhance economic and environmental benefits by adopting cover cropping and other regenerative farming practices.

Dataset Information

Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain.

Publications

Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain.

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