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Changing sensitivity to cold weather in Texas power demand.

ABSTRACT: We estimate the effect of heightened temperature sensitivity on electricity demand in Texas during the February 2021 blackout event. Using 20 years of hourly data, we estimate the relationship between temperature and electricity demand; finding demand has become more responsive to cold temperatures over time. This is consistent with the fact electric heating has similarly increased over the past 20 years in Texas. We find during the February 2021 event, average electricity demand was 8% higher, and approximately 10,000 MW higher during the peak hour, than it would have been had temperature sensitivity remained unchanged at early 2000s levels. Our results highlight that Texas's increased sensitivity to cold weather extremes is not limited to the supply side, but the demand side as well. These findings have implications to other regions that are seeking to reduce carbon emissions through the electrification of heating.

SUBMITTER: Shaffer B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9010639 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Changing sensitivity to cold weather in Texas power demand.

Shaffer Blake B Quintero Daniel D Rhodes Joshua J

iScience 20220329 4

We estimate the effect of heightened temperature sensitivity on electricity demand in Texas during the February 2021 blackout event. Using 20 years of hourly data, we estimate the relationship between temperature and electricity demand; finding demand has become more responsive to cold temperatures over time. This is consistent with the fact electric heating has similarly increased over the past 20 years in Texas. We find during the February 2021 event, average electricity demand was 8% higher, ...[more]

PMID: 35434549

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Project description:BackgroundPrecipitated by an unusual winter storm, the 2021 Texas Power Crisis lasted February 10 to 27 leaving millions of customers without power. Such large-scale outages can have severe health consequences, especially among vulnerable subpopulations such as those reliant on electricity to power medical equipment, but limited studies have evaluated sociodemographic disparities associated with outages.ObjectiveTo characterize the 2021 Texas Power Crisis in relation to distribution, duration, preparedness, and issues of environmental justice.MethodsWe used hourly Texas-wide county-level power outage data to estimate geographic clustering and association between outage exposure (distribution and duration) and six measures of racial, social, political, and/or medical vulnerability: Black and Hispanic populations, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), Medicare electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (DME) usage, nursing homes, and hospitals. To examine individual-level experience and preparedness, we used a preexisting and non-representative internet survey.ResultsAt the peak of the Texas Power Crisis, nearly 1/3 of customers statewide (N = 4,011,776 households/businesses) lost power. We identified multiple counties that faced a dual burden of racial/social/medical vulnerability and power outage exposure, after accounting for multiple comparisons. County-level spatial analyses indicated that counties where more Hispanic residents resided tended to endure more severe outages (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.40). We did not observe socioeconomic or medical disparities. With individual-level survey data among 1038 respondents, we found that Black respondents were more likely to report outages lasting 24+ hours and that younger individuals and those with lower educational attainment were less likely to be prepared for outages.SignificancePower outages can be deadly, and medically vulnerable, socioeconomically vulnerable, and marginalized groups may be disproportionately impacted or less prepared. Climate and energy policy must equitably address power outages, future grid improvements, and disaster preparedness and management.

Dataset Information

Changing sensitivity to cold weather in Texas power demand.

Publications

Changing sensitivity to cold weather in Texas power demand.

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