Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

11 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India.

Methods

We have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed.

Results

The model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as 'all-or-nothing' (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%.

Conclusion

The proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease.

SUBMITTER: Yaladanda N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9068602 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Similar Datasets

People favour imperfect catching by assuming a stable world.

Project description:The visual angle that is projected by an object (e.g. a ball) on the retina depends on the object's size and distance. Without further information, however, the visual angle is ambiguous with respect to size and distance, because equal visual angles can be obtained from a big ball at a longer distance and a smaller one at a correspondingly shorter distance. Failure to recover the true 3D structure of the object (e.g. a ball's physical size) causing the ambiguous retinal image can lead to a timing error when catching the ball. Two opposing views are currently prevailing on how people resolve this ambiguity when estimating time to contact. One explanation challenges any inference about what causes the retinal image (i.e. the necessity to recover this 3D structure), and instead favors a direct analysis of optic flow. In contrast, the second view suggests that action timing could be rather based on obtaining an estimate of the 3D structure of the scene. With the latter, systematic errors will be predicted if our inference of the 3D structure fails to reveal the underlying cause of the retinal image. Here we show that hand closure in catching virtual balls is triggered by visual angle, using an assumption of a constant ball size. As a consequence of this assumption, hand closure starts when the ball is at similar distance across trials. From that distance on, the remaining arrival time, therefore, depends on ball's speed. In order to time the catch successfully, closing time was coupled with ball's speed during the motor phase. This strategy led to an increased precision in catching but at the cost of committing systematic errors.

| S-EPMC3338450 | biostudies-literature

Imperfect vaccine aggravates the long-standing dilemma of voluntary vaccination.

Project description:Achieving widespread population immunity by voluntary vaccination poses a major challenge for public health administration and practice. The situation is complicated even more by imperfect vaccines. How the vaccine efficacy affects individuals' vaccination behavior has yet to be fully answered. To address this issue, we combine a simple yet effective game theoretic model of vaccination behavior with an epidemiological process. Our analysis shows that, in a population of self-interested individuals, there exists an overshooting of vaccine uptake levels as the effectiveness of vaccination increases. Moreover, when the basic reproductive number, R0, exceeds a certain threshold, all individuals opt for vaccination for an intermediate region of vaccine efficacy. We further show that increasing effectiveness of vaccination always increases the number of effectively vaccinated individuals and therefore attenuates the epidemic strain. The results suggest that 'number is traded for efficiency': although increases in vaccination effectiveness lead to uptake drops due to free-riding effects, the impact of the epidemic can be better mitigated.

| S-EPMC3110791 | biostudies-literature

Perfect crystals grown from imperfect interfaces.

Project description:The fabrication of advanced devices increasingly requires materials with different properties to be combined in the form of monolithic heterostructures. In practice this means growing epitaxial semiconductor layers on substrates often greatly differing in lattice parameters and thermal expansion coefficients. With increasing layer thickness the relaxation of misfit and thermal strains may cause dislocations, substrate bowing and even layer cracking. Minimizing these drawbacks is therefore essential for heterostructures based on thick layers to be of any use for device fabrication. Here we prove by scanning X-ray nanodiffraction that mismatched Ge crystals epitaxially grown on deeply patterned Si substrates evolve into perfect structures away from the heavily dislocated interface. We show that relaxing thermal and misfit strains result just in lattice bending and tiny crystal tilts. We may thus expect a new concept in which continuous layers are replaced by quasi-continuous crystal arrays to lead to dramatically improved physical properties.

| S-EPMC3721082 | biostudies-other

Recursive construction of perfect DNA molecules from imperfect oligonucleotides.

Project description:Making faultless complex objects from potentially faulty building blocks is a fundamental challenge in computer engineering, nanotechnology and synthetic biology. Here, we show for the first time how recursion can be used to address this challenge and demonstrate a recursive procedure that constructs error-free DNA molecules and their libraries from error-prone oligonucleotides. Divide and Conquer (D&C), the quintessential recursive problem-solving technique, is applied in silico to divide the target DNA sequence into overlapping oligonucleotides short enough to be synthesized directly, albeit with errors; error-prone oligonucleotides are recursively combined in vitro, forming error-prone DNA molecules; error-free fragments of these molecules are then identified, extracted and used as new, typically longer and more accurate, inputs to another iteration of the recursive construction procedure; the entire process repeats until an error-free target molecule is formed. Our recursive construction procedure surpasses existing methods for de novo DNA synthesis in speed, precision, amenability to automation, ease of combining synthetic and natural DNA fragments, and ability to construct designer DNA libraries. It thus provides a novel and robust foundation for the design and construction of synthetic biological molecules and organisms.

| S-EPMC2424292 | biostudies-literature

Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy.

Project description:Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the most common human viruses and the cause of pathologies such as infectious mononucleosis (IM) and certain cancers. No vaccine against EBV infection currently exists, but such vaccines are in development. Knowledge of how EBV is transmitted at the population level is critical to the development of target product profiles (TPPs) for such vaccines and future vaccination strategies. We present the first mathematical model of EBV transmission, parameterised using data from England, and use it to compare hypothetical prophylactic vaccines with different characteristics and the impact of vaccinating different age groups. We found that vaccine duration had more impact than vaccine efficacy on modelled EBV and IM prevalence. The age group vaccinated also had an important effect: vaccinating at a younger age led to a greater reduction in seroprevalence but an increase in IM cases associated with delayed infection. Vaccination had impact on cancer incidence only in the long run, because in England most EBV-related cancers arise in later life. Durability of protection should be a key factor to prioritise in EBV vaccine development and included in vaccine TPPs. These findings are timely and important for vaccine developers and policy-makers alike.

| S-EPMC6594949 | biostudies-literature

Imperfect vaccine and hysteresis.

Project description:Addressing vaccine compliance problems is of particular relevance and significance to public health. Despite resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases and public awareness of vaccine importance, why is it so challenging to boost population vaccination coverage to desired levels especially in the wake of declining vaccine uptake? To understand this puzzling phenomenon, here we study how social imitation dynamics of vaccination can be impacted by the presence of imperfect vaccine, which only confers partial protection against the disease. Besides weighing the perceived cost of vaccination with the risk of infection, the effectiveness of vaccination is also an important factor driving vaccination decisions. We discover that there can exist multiple stable vaccination equilibria if vaccine efficacy is below a certain threshold. Furthermore, our bifurcation analysis reveals the occurrence of hysteresis loops of vaccination rate with respect to changes in the perceived vaccination cost as well as in the vaccination effectiveness. Moreover, we find that hysteresis is more likely to arise in spatial populations than in well-mixed populations, even for parameter choices that do not allow for bifurcation in the latter. Our work shows that hysteresis can appear as an unprecedented roadblock for the recovery of vaccination uptake, thereby helping explain the persistence of vaccine compliance problem.

| S-EPMC6367186 | biostudies-literature

Pathogen adaptation under imperfect vaccination: implications for pertussis.

Project description:Mass vaccination campaigns have drastically reduced the burden of infectious diseases. Unfortunately, in recent years several infectious diseases have re-emerged. Pertussis poses a well-known example. Inspired by pertussis, we study, by means of an epidemic model, the population and evolutionary dynamics of a pathogen population under the pressure of vaccination. A distinction is made between infection in immunologically naive individuals (primary infection) and infection in individuals whose immune system has been primed by vaccination or infection (secondary infection). The results show that (i) vaccination with an imperfect vaccine may not succeed in reducing the infection pressure if the transmissibility of secondary infections is higher than that of primary infections; (ii) pathogen strains that are able to evade the immunity induced by vaccination can only spread if escape mutants incur no or only a modest fitness cost and (iii) the direction of evolution depends crucially on the distribution of the different types of susceptibles in the population. We discuss the implications of these results for the design and use of vaccines that provide temporary immunity.

| S-EPMC1559845 | biostudies-other

Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.

Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.

| S-EPMC8101958 | biostudies-literature

Imperfect vaccination: some epidemiological and evolutionary consequences.

Project description:An aim of some vaccination programmes is to reduce the prevalence of an infectious disease and ultimately to eradicate it. We show that eradication success depends on the type of vaccine as well as on the vaccination coverage. Vaccines that reduce the parasite within-host growth rate select for higher parasite virulence and this evolution may both increase the prevalence of the disease and prevent disease eradication. By contrast, vaccines that reduce the probability of infection select against virulence and may lead more easily to eradication. In some cases, epidemiological feedback on parasite evolution yields an evolutionary bistable situation where, for intermediate vaccination coverage, parasites can evolve towards either high or low virulence, depending on the initial conditions. These results have practical implications for the design and use of imperfect vaccines in public- and animal-health programmes.

| S-EPMC1691350 | biostudies-literature

Student of Games: A unified learning algorithm for both perfect and imperfect information games.

Project description:Games have a long history as benchmarks for progress in artificial intelligence. Approaches using search and learning produced strong performance across many perfect information games, and approaches using game-theoretic reasoning and learning demonstrated strong performance for specific imperfect information poker variants. We introduce Student of Games, a general-purpose algorithm that unifies previous approaches, combining guided search, self-play learning, and game-theoretic reasoning. Student of Games achieves strong empirical performance in large perfect and imperfect information games-an important step toward truly general algorithms for arbitrary environments. We prove that Student of Games is sound, converging to perfect play as available computation and approximation capacity increases. Student of Games reaches strong performance in chess and Go, beats the strongest openly available agent in heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em poker, and defeats the state-of-the-art agent in Scotland Yard, an imperfect information game that illustrates the value of guided search, learning, and game-theoretic reasoning.

| S-EPMC10651118 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data