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Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy.

ABSTRACT: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the most common human viruses and the cause of pathologies such as infectious mononucleosis (IM) and certain cancers. No vaccine against EBV infection currently exists, but such vaccines are in development. Knowledge of how EBV is transmitted at the population level is critical to the development of target product profiles (TPPs) for such vaccines and future vaccination strategies. We present the first mathematical model of EBV transmission, parameterised using data from England, and use it to compare hypothetical prophylactic vaccines with different characteristics and the impact of vaccinating different age groups. We found that vaccine duration had more impact than vaccine efficacy on modelled EBV and IM prevalence. The age group vaccinated also had an important effect: vaccinating at a younger age led to a greater reduction in seroprevalence but an increase in IM cases associated with delayed infection. Vaccination had impact on cancer incidence only in the long run, because in England most EBV-related cancers arise in later life. Durability of protection should be a key factor to prioritise in EBV vaccine development and included in vaccine TPPs. These findings are timely and important for vaccine developers and policy-makers alike.

SUBMITTER: Gosce L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6594949 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine for Plasmodium falciparum malaria demonstrated moderate efficacy in 5-17-month-old children in phase 3 trials, and from 2018, the vaccine will be evaluated through a large-scale pilot implementation program. Work is ongoing to optimise this vaccine, with higher efficacy for a different schedule demonstrated in a phase 2a challenge study. The objective of our study was to investigate the population-level impact of a modified RTS,S/AS01 schedule and dose amount in order to inform the target product profile for a second-generation malaria vaccine.MethodsWe used a mathematical modelling approach as the basis for our study. We simulated the changing anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre following vaccination and related the titre to vaccine efficacy. We then implemented this efficacy profile within an individual-based model of malaria transmission. We compared initial efficacy, duration and dose timing, and evaluated the potential public health impact of a modified vaccine in children aged 5-17 months, measuring clinical cases averted in children younger than 5 years.ResultsIn the first decade of delivery, initial efficacy was associated with a higher reduction in childhood clinical cases compared to vaccine duration. This effect was more pronounced in high transmission settings and was due to the efficacy benefit occurring in younger ages where disease burden is highest. However, the low initial efficacy and long duration schedule averted more cases across all age cohorts if a longer time horizon was considered. We observed an age-shifting effect due to the changing immunological profile in higher transmission settings, in scenarios where initial efficacy was higher, and the fourth dose administered earlier.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that, for an imperfect childhood malaria vaccine with suboptimal efficacy, it may be advantageous to prioritise initial efficacy over duration. We predict that a modified vaccine could outperform the current RTS,S/AS01, although fourth dose timing will affect the age group that derives the greatest benefit. Further, the outcome measure and timeframe over which a vaccine is assessed are important when prioritising vaccine elements. This study provides insight into the most important characteristics of a malaria vaccine for at-risk groups and shows how distinct vaccine properties translate to public health outcomes. These findings may be used to prioritise target product profile elements for second-generation childhood malaria vaccines.

Project description:As part of the Vaccine Innovation Prioritisation Strategy (VIPS), three immunization-stakeholder consultations were conducted between September 2018 and February 2020 to ensure that countries' needs drove the prioritization of vaccine product innovations. All consultations targeted respondents with immunization program experience. They included: (1) an online survey to identify immunization implementation barriers and desired vaccine attributes in three use settings, (2) an online survey to identify and evaluate the most important immunization challenges for ten exemplar vaccines, and (3) in-depth interviews to better understand the perceived programmatic benefits and challenges that could be addressed by nine innovations and to rank the innovations that could best address current challenges. The first consultation included responses from 442 participants in 61 countries, representing 89% of the 496 respondents who correctly completed at least one section of the online survey. For facility-based settings, missed opportunities for vaccination due to reluctance to open multidose vaccine vials was the barrier most frequently selected by respondents. In community-based (outreach) and campaign settings, limited access to immunization services due to geographic barriers was most frequently selected. Multidose presentations with preservative or single-dose presentations were most frequently selected as desired vaccine attributes for facility-based settings while improved thermostability was most frequently selected for outreach and campaign settings. The second online survey was completed by 220 respondents in 54 countries. For the exemplar vaccines, vaccine ineffectiveness or wastage due to heat or freeze exposure and missed opportunities due to multidose vial presentations were identified as the greatest vaccine-specific challenges. In-depth interviews with 84 respondents in six countries ranked microarray patches, dual-chamber delivery devices, and heat-stable/controlled temperature chain qualified liquid vaccines as the three innovations that could have the greatest impact in helping address current immunization program challenges. These findings informed the VIPS prioritization and provided broader application to designing immunization interventions to better meet country needs.

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Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy.

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