Dataset Information

Real-Time Prediction of Mortality, Cardiac Arrest, and Thromboembolic Complications in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 infection carries significant morbidity and mortality. Current risk prediction for complications in COVID-19 is limited, and existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic course of the disease.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the COVID-HEART predictor, a novel continuously updating risk-prediction technology to forecast adverse events in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

Retrospective registry data from patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection admitted to 5 hospitals were used to train COVID-HEART to predict all-cause mortality/cardiac arrest (AM/CA) and imaging-confirmed thromboembolic events (TEs) (n = 2,550 and n = 1,854, respectively). To assess COVID-HEART's performance in the face of rapidly changing clinical treatment guidelines, an additional 1,100 and 796 patients, admitted after the completion of development data collection, were used for testing. Leave-hospital-out validation was performed.

Results

Over 20 iterations of temporally divided testing, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.917 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.916-0.919) and 0.757 (95% CI: 0.751-0.763) for prediction of AM/CA and TE, respectively. The interquartile ranges of median early warning times were 14 to 21 hours for AM/CA and 12 to 60 hours for TE. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the left-out hospitals were 0.956 (95% CI: 0.936-0.976) and 0.781 (95% CI: 0.642-0.919) for prediction of AM/CA and TE, respectively.

Conclusions

The continuously updating, fully interpretable COVID-HEART predictor accurately predicts AM/CA and TE within multiple time windows in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In its current implementation, the predictor can facilitate practical, meaningful changes in patient triage and resource allocation by providing real-time risk scores for these outcomes. The potential utility of the predictor extends to COVID-19 patients after hospitalization and beyond COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Shade JK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9080121 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Thromboembolic events, including venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thromboembolism (ATE), and mortality from subclinical thrombotic events occur frequently in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) inpatients. Whether the risk extends postdischarge has been controversial. Our prospective registry included consecutive patients with COVID-19 hospitalized within our multihospital system from 1 March to 31 May 2020. We captured demographics, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, medications, postdischarge thromboprophylaxis, and 90-day outcomes. Data from electronic health records, health informatics exchange, radiology database, and telephonic follow-up were merged. Primary outcome was a composite of adjudicated VTE, ATE, and all-cause mortality (ACM). Principal safety outcome was major bleeding (MB). Among 4906 patients (53.7% male), mean age was 61.7 years. Comorbidities included hypertension (38.6%), diabetes (25.1%), obesity (18.9%), and cancer history (13.1%). Postdischarge thromboprophylaxis was prescribed in 13.2%. VTE rate was 1.55%; ATE, 1.71%; ΑCM, 4.83%; and MB, 1.73%. Composite primary outcome rate was 7.13% and significantly associated with advanced age (odds ratio [OR], 3.66; 95% CI, 2.84-4.71), prior VTE (OR, 2.99; 95% CI, 2.00-4.47), intensive care unit (ICU) stay (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.78-2.93), chronic kidney disease (CKD; OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.47-3.0), peripheral arterial disease (OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.10-3.80), carotid occlusive disease (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.30-3.14), IMPROVE-DD VTE score ≥4 (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.06-2.14), and coronary artery disease (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04-2.17). Postdischarge anticoagulation was significantly associated with reduction in primary outcome (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.47-0.81). Postdischarge VTE, ATE, and ACM occurred frequently after COVID-19 hospitalization. Advanced age, cardiovascular risk factors, CKD, IMPROVE-DD VTE score ≥4, and ICU stay increased risk. Postdischarge anticoagulation reduced risk by 46%.