The Case-Crossover Design Under Changing Baseline Outcome Risk: A Simulation of Ambient Temperature and Preterm Birth.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Carrion D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9156557 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The Case-Crossover Design Under Changing Baseline Outcome Risk: A Simulation of Ambient Temperature and Preterm Birth.
Carrión Daniel D Rush Johnathan J Colicino Elena E Just Allan C AC
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20220308 4
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Project description:Although effects of weather changes on human health have been widely reported, there is limited information regarding effects on pregnant women in developing countries.We investigated the association between maternal exposure to ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth (< 37 weeks of gestation) in Guangzhou, China.We used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate associations between preterm birth and average temperature during each week of gestation, with weekly temperature modeled as a time-varying exposure during four time windows: 1 week (the last week of the pregnancy), 4 weeks (the last 4 weeks of the pregnancy), late pregnancy (gestational week 20 onward), and the entire pregnancy. Information on singleton vaginal birth between 2001 and 2011 was collected. Daily meteorological data during the same period were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau.A total of 838,146 singleton vaginal births were included, among which 47,209 (5.6%) were preterm births. High mean temperatures during the 4 weeks, late pregnancy, and the entire pregnancy time windows were associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Compared with the median temperature (24.4°C), weekly exposures during the last 4 weeks of the pregnancy to extreme cold (7.6°C, the 1st percentile) and extreme heat (31.9°C, the 99th percentile) were associated with 17.9% (95% CI: 10.2, 26.2%) and 10.0% (95% CI: 2.9, 17.6%) increased risks of preterm birth, respectively. The association between extreme heat and preterm birth was stronger for preterm births during weeks 20-31 and 32-34 than those during weeks 35-36.These findings might have important implications in preventing preterm birth in Guangzhou as well as other areas with similar weather conditions.He JR, Liu Y, Xia XY, Ma WJ, Lin HL, Kan HD, Lu JH, Feng Q, Mo WJ, Wang P, Xia HM, Qiu X, Muglia LJ. 2016. Ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth in Guangzhou, China (2001-2011). Environ Health Perspect 124:1100-1106;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509778.
| S-EPMC4937853 | biostudies-other
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10882820 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDays of extreme temperature may be associated with transiently higher risk of preterm birth, but prior studies have been limited and results have been heterogeneous.ObjectivesTo evaluate the association between days of extreme heat and cold and risk of preterm birth among ~32 million live singleton births between 1989 and 2002 across 403 counties in the contiguous United States (US).MethodsWe used a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the association between population-weighted daily mean temperature and risk of preterm birth in each county and then pooled results across geographic regions and climate zones. We defined extreme heat and cold as the 95th and 5th percentile of the county-specific temperatures, respectively.ResultsPreterm birth accounted for 9.3% of deliveries. There was a monotonic association between ambient temperature and risk of preterm birth. Days of extreme heat and cold were associated with a relative risk of preterm birth of 1.025 (95% CI: 1.015, 1.036) and 0.985 (95% CI: 0.976, 0.993) over the subsequent four days, respectively, relative to the county-specific median temperature. If causal, the fraction of preterm births attributable to extreme heat was 0.17% (empirical 95% CI: 0.14%, 0.19%), corresponding to 154 (empirical 95% CI: 127, 173) preterm births per million births. Extreme heat was more strongly associated with preterm birth in regions with colder and drier climates, and among younger women. Days of extreme cold temperature were associated with lower rather than higher risk of preterm birth.ConclusionsDays of extreme heat, but not extreme cold, are associated with higher risk of preterm birth in the contiguous US. If causal, these results may have important implications for the management of pregnant women during forecasted periods of extreme heat.
| S-EPMC6441631 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The effects from rising temperatures, a symptom of climate change, have become a significant concern. This study finds that one additional day with a maximum temperature of 30-32 °C (86-89.6 °F), relative to a day with a temperature of 28-30 °C (82.4-86 °F), decreases the birth rate 9 months later by 0.24%, or 92 babies per month in South Korea. This result is robust to various specifications and samples. This study also found that the impact of the temperature bin did not vary according to the mother's characteristics, including education and age. That is, high temperature has no differential effect on mothers of different backgrounds. Finally, we found no significant temperature effect on birth outcomes, but we cannot rule out that children born 9 months after summer heat are a selected (healthy) group.
| S-EPMC7089350 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAn emerging body of evidence suggests that ambient levels of air pollution during pregnancy are associated with preterm birth.MethodsTo further investigate these relationships we used vital record data to construct a retrospective cohort of 476,489 births occurring between 1994 and 2004 in 5 central counties of metropolitan Atlanta. Using a time-series approach, we examined aggregated daily counts of preterm birth in relation to ambient levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, particulate matter <10 microm in diameter (PM10), particulate matter <2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5), and speciated PM measurements. Daily pollutant levels in 5-county Atlanta were characterized using a population-weighted spatial average of air quality monitors in the study area. We also examined ambient concentrations at individual monitors in analyses limited to mothers with residential geocodes within 4 miles of each monitor. Relationships between average pollution levels during 3 gestational windows of interest were modeled using Poisson generalized linear models. Results were adjusted for seasonal and long-term time trends.ResultsAlthough most results were null, there were 3 positive associations between ambient pollution levels and preterm birth in the 4-mile capture-area analyses. Daily preterm birth rates were associated with average NO2 concentrations in the preceding 6 weeks and with average PM2.5 sulfate and PM2.5 water-soluble metal concentrations in the preceding week.ConclusionsResults provide limited support for late-pregnancy effects of ambient air pollution on preterm birth.
| S-EPMC3780365 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth is a major perinatal health problem, but factors leading to it are still not completely understood.ObjectivesOur goal was to identify the relation between acute increase in ambient air pollution in a few hours before onset of labor and the risk of preterm birth.MethodsWe collected registered birth outcome data and hourly ambient air pollution measurements during 2009‒2013 in Brisbane, Australia. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models with natural cubic splines, we assessed the shape of air pollution-preterm birth curve, after controlling for potential confounders. We also examined the effect modification of other factors.ResultsThe association between air pollution [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)] and preterm birth was nonlinear. Threshold concentrations for the mean of 0‒24 hr NO2, 24‒48 hr SO2, and 24‒48 hr CO before onset of labor were 7.6 parts per billion (ppb), 3.8 ppb, and 162.5 ppb, respectively. Increases in air pollution concentrations above thresholds were associated with increased risks of preterm birth. The odds ratios of preterm birth at the 95th percentile of NO2, SO2, and CO against the thresholds were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.27), 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.04), and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.32), respectively. The associations were modified by demographic factors, such as maternal smoking and socioeconomic status.ConclusionAcute increases in ambient air pollution concentrations above certain levels before onset of labor may stimulate preterm birth.CitationLi S, Guo Y, Williams G. 2016. Acute impact of hourly ambient air pollution on preterm birth. Environ Health Perspect 124:1623-1629; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP200.
| S-EPMC5047774 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDue to climate change, the frequency and intensity of heat waves and other extreme weather events are rapidly increasing. Compared to the general population, pregnant women and fetuses are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures and are associated with the occurrence of adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth (PTB). However, its risk of preterm birth is currently uncertain. The objective of the research is to examine the effect of ambient temperature on PTB in pregnant women.MethodsThis study included 6,850 pregnant women from the Tongji-Shuangliu Birth Cohort. Meteorological data for Chengdu through the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The main exposure assessment was conducted during eight different exposure windows, including the first three months of pregnancy, 7 weeks periods during the first two trimesters, throughout pregnancy, 1-week preceding delivery, and 4 weeks preceding delivery. The effect of environmental temperature on PTB during different exposure windows was assessed using the logistic regression based on the percentile of the mean temperature in different exposure cycles. Additionally, the lagged effect of environmental temperature on preterm births throughout the study period was analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model.ResultsAmong the 6850 pregnant women, 301 (4.4%) were diagnosed with PTB. Compared to mild temperature (10th to 90th percentile), exposure to extreme cold (< 10th percentile) temperature during the 4 weeks preceding delivery (RR = 2.45, 95% CI:1.11,5.40) and throughout pregnancy (RR = 3.85, 95% CI:1.56,9.53) increased the risk of PTB. In addition, hot temperature (> 90th percentile) at 4 weeks preceding delivery (RR = 0.33, 95% CI:0.13,0.86) and 22-28 weeks of pregnancy (RR = 0.25, 95% CI:0.11,0.59), and cold exposure at 1-week preceding delivery(RR = 0.51, 95% CI:0.27,0.96), reduced risk of PTB. In the lagged model, compared with 18° C (50th percentile), 7 °C (10th percentile) had the strongest effect on lag day 21 and lag 22 (RR = 1.20, 95% CI:1.03,1.40; RR = 1.20, 95% CI:1.03,1.39). A temperature of 27° C (90th percentile) was protective for PTB from the 22nd day of lag(RR = 0.86, 95% CI:0.75,0.99).ConclusionsThis study indicates that high temperature may be a protective factor for PTB, while low temperature may be a risk factor, with an obvious lag effect.
| S-EPMC11761215 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRespiratory diseases contribute to global morbidity and mortality, and temperature is a significant factor. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and emergency department (ED) visits for various respiratory diseases in Seoul, South Korea.MethodsUsing data from the National Emergency Department Information System (2008-2017), we analysed 1,616,644 ED visits for respiratory diseases, categorised according to the Korean Standard Classification of Diseases 7th revision codes (J00-J99). Using a time-stratified case-crossover design and a distributed lag nonlinear model, we investigated the effect of temperature exposure on ED visits for respiratory diseases, calculating the relative risk (RR) for the maximum risk temperature (MaxRT) of both cold and hot extremes compared to the minimum risk temperature (MinRT).ResultsCold temperatures (MaxRT: -9.0 °C) resulted in a 2.68-fold increase (RR = 2.68, 95% CI = 2.26-3.14) in ED visits for total respiratory diseases, while hot temperatures (MaxRT: 29.4 °C) led to a 1.26-fold increase (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.11-1.42) compared to the MinRT (24.8 °C). Cold temperatures increased the risk of most respiratory diseases, except interstitial lung disease, whereas hot temperatures increased ED visits for acute upper respiratory infections and influenza. Cold temperatures increased ED visits for all age groups, especially those aged 18-64 (RR = 3.54, 95% CI = 2.90-4.33), while hot temperatures significantly affected those < 18 (RR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.27-1.66). The risk levels were similar in both males and females, regardless of hot and cold temperatures.ConclusionOur findings underscore the significant impact of both cold and heat exposure on ED visits for respiratory diseases, with varying intensities and risk profiles across different population groups.
| S-EPMC10845516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A limited number of studies suggest that ambient temperature contributes to suicide; these studies typically focus on a single nation and use temporally and spatially aggregated data.We evaluated the association between ambient temperature and suicide in multiple cities in three East Asian countries.A time-stratified case-crossover method was used to explore the relationship between temperature and suicide, adjusting for potential time-varying confounders and time-invariant individual characteristics. Sex- and age-specific associations of temperature with suicide were estimated, as were interactions between temperature and these variables. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate country-specific pooled associations of temperature with suicide.An increase in temperature corresponding to half of the city-specific standard deviation was positively associated with suicide in most cities, although average suicide rates varied substantially. Pooled country-level effect estimates were 7.8% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.8%) for a 2.3°C increase in ambient temperature in Taiwan, 6.8% (95% CI: 5.4, 8.2%) for a 4.7°C increase in Korea, and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.3, 5.7%) for a 4.2°C increase in Japan. The association between temperature and suicide was significant even after adjusting for sunshine duration; the association between sunshine and suicide was not significant. The associations were greater among men than women in 12 of the 15 cities although not significantly so. There was little evidence of a consistent pattern of associations with age. In general, associations were strongest with temperature on the same day or the previous day, with little evidence of associations with temperature over longer lags (up to 5 days).We estimated consistent positive associations between suicide and elevated ambient temperature in three East Asian countries, regardless of country, sex, and age.Kim Y, Kim H, Honda Y, Guo YL, Chen BY, Woo JM, Ebi KL. 2016. Suicide and ambient temperature in East Asian countries: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:75-80; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409392.
| S-EPMC4710603 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The World Health Organization has identified snakebite envenoming as a highest priority neglected tropical disease, yet there is a dearth of epidemiologic research on environmental risk factors, including outdoor temperature. Temperature may affect snakebites through human behavior or snake behavior; snakes are ectotherms, meaning outdoor temperatures influence their internal body temperature and thus their behavior. Here we investigate the relationship between short-term temperature and snakebites in Georgia, one of the most biodiverse US states in terms of herpetofauna. We acquired emergency department (ED) visit data for Georgia between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2020. Visits for venomous and non-venomous snakebites were identified using diagnosis codes. For comparison, we also considered visits for non-snake (e.g., insects, spiders, scorpions) envenomation. Daily meteorology from the Daymet 1 km product was linked to patient residential ZIP codes. We applied a case-crossover design to estimate associations of daily maximum temperature and snakebite ED visits. During the 7-year study period, there were 3,908 visits for venomous snakebites, 1,124 visits for non-venomous bites and 65,187 visits for non-snake envenomation. Across the entire period, a 1°C increase in same-day maximum temperature was associated with a 5.6% (95%CI: 4.0-7.3) increase in the odds of venomous snakebite and a 5.8% (95%CI: 3.0-8.8) increase in non-venomous snakebite. Associations were strongest in the spring. We also observed a positive and significant (p < 0.05) association for non-snake envenomation, albeit slightly smaller and more consistent across seasons compared to those for snakebites.
| S-EPMC10334880 | biostudies-literature