Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Background

With the accelerated global integration and the impact of climatic, ecological and social environmental changes, China will continue to face the challenge of the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases and traditional ones. This study aims to explore the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2007 to 2020, and to forecast the trend of it as well. Hopefully, it will provide a reference for the formulation of infectious disease prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Data on the incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2007 to 2020 were collected for the prediction of the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation as well as the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China based on global spatial autocorrelation and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).

Results

From 2007 to 2020, the national incidence rate of Class B notifiable infectious diseases (from 272.37 per 100,000 in 2007 to 190.35 per 100,000 in 2020) decreases year by year, and the spatial distribution shows an "east-central-west" stepwise increase. From 2007 to 2020, the spatial clustering of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases is significant and increasing year by year (Moran's I index values range from 0.189 to 0.332, p < 0.05). The forecasted incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases nationwide from 2021 to 2024 (205.26/100,000, 199.95/100,000, 194.74/100,000 and 189.62/100,000) as well as the forecasted values for most regions show a downward trend, with only some regions (Guangdong, Hunan, Hainan, Tibet, Guangxi and Guizhou) showing an increasing trend year by year.

Conclusions

The current study found that since there were significant regional disparities in the prevention and control of infectious diseases in China between 2007 and 2020, the reduction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases requires the joint efforts of the surrounding provinces. Besides, special attention should be paid to provinces with an increasing trend in the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases to prevent the re-emergence of certain traditional infectious diseases in a particular province or even the whole country, as well as the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Wang RN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9204078 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.

Wang Ruo-Nan RN Zhang Yue-Chi YC Yu Bo-Tao BT He Yan-Ting YT Li Bei B Zhang Yi-Li YL

BMC public health 20220617 1

<h4>Background</h4>With the accelerated global integration and the impact of climatic, ecological and social environmental changes, China will continue to face the challenge of the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases and traditional ones. This study aims to explore the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2007 to 2020, and to forecast the trend of it as well. Hopefully, it will provide a referen ...[more]

PMID: 35715790

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Project description:BackgroundChina is the largest developing country with a relatively developed public health system. To further prevent and eliminate the spread of infectious diseases, China has listed 39 notifiable infectious diseases characterized by wide prevalence or great harm, and classified them into classes A, B, and C, with severity decreasing across classes. Class A diseases have been almost eradicated in China, thus making class B diseases a priority in infectious disease prevention and control. In this retrospective study, we analyze the spatial distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases that remain active all over China.MethodsGlobal and local Moran's I and corresponding graphic tools are adopted to explore and visualize the global and local spatial distribution of the incidence of the selected epidemics, respectively. Inter-correlations of clustering patterns of each pair of diseases and a cumulative summary of the high/low cluster frequency of the provincial units are also provided by means of figures and maps.ResultsOf the 12 most commonly notifiable class B infectious diseases, viral hepatitis and tuberculosis show high incidence rates and account for more than half of the reported cases. Almost all the diseases, except pertussis, exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation at the provincial level. All diseases feature varying spatial concentrations. Nevertheless, associations exist between spatial distribution patterns, with some provincial units displaying the same type of cluster features for two or more infectious diseases. Overall, high-low (unit with high incidence surrounded by units with high incidence, the same below) and high-high spatial cluster areas tend to be prevalent in the provincial units located in western and southwest China, whereas low-low and low-high spatial cluster areas abound in provincial units in north and east China.ConclusionDespite the various distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases, certain similarities between their spatial distributions are present. Substantial evidence is available to support disease-specific, location-specific, and disease-combined interventions. Regarding provinces that show high-high/high-low patterns of multiple diseases, comprehensive interventions targeting different diseases should be established. As to the adjacent provincial units revealing similar patterns, coordinated actions need to be taken across borders.

Project description:BackgroundChina is the most populous country globally and has made significant achievements in the control of infectious diseases over the last decades. The 2003 SARS epidemic triggered the initiation of the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Since then, numerous studies have investigated the epidemiological features and trends of individual infectious diseases in China; however, few considered the changing spatiotemporal trends and seasonality of these infectious diseases over time.ObjectiveThis study aims to systematically review the spatiotemporal trends and seasonal characteristics of class A and class B notifiable infectious diseases in China during 2005-2020.MethodsWe extracted the incidence and mortality data of 8 types (27 diseases) of notifiable infectious diseases from the CISDCP. We used the Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods to investigate the diseases' temporal trends, Moran I statistic for their geographical distribution, and circular distribution analysis for their seasonality.ResultsBetween January 2005 and December 2020, 51,028,733 incident cases and 261,851 attributable deaths were recorded. Pertussis (P=.03), dengue fever (P=.01), brucellosis (P=.001), scarlet fever (P=.02), AIDS (P<.001), syphilis (P<.001), hepatitis C (P<.001) and hepatitis E (P=.04) exhibited significant upward trends. Furthermore, measles (P<.001), bacillary and amebic dysentery (P<.001), malaria (P=.04), dengue fever (P=.006), brucellosis (P=.03), and tuberculosis (P=.003) exhibited significant seasonal patterns. We observed marked disease burden-related geographic disparities and heterogeneities. Notably, high-risk areas for various infectious diseases have remained relatively unchanged since 2005. In particular, hemorrhagic fever and brucellosis were largely concentrated in Northeast China; neonatal tetanus, typhoid and paratyphoid, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, and AIDS in Southwest China; BAD in North China; schistosomiasis in Central China; anthrax, tuberculosis, and hepatitis A in Northwest China; rabies in South China; and gonorrhea in East China. However, the geographical distribution of syphilis, scarlet fever, and hepatitis E drifted from coastal to inland provinces during 2005-2020.ConclusionsThe overall infectious disease burden in China is declining; however, hepatitis C and E, bacterial infections, and sexually transmitted infections continue to multiply, many of which have spread from coastal to inland provinces.

Project description:BackgroundLittle comprehensive information on overall epidemic trend of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases is available in Shandong Province, China. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases.MethodsTime series was firstly performed to describe the temporal distribution feature of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases during 2005-2014 in Shandong Province. GIS Natural Breaks (Jenks) was applied to divide the average annual incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases into five grades. Spatial empirical Bayesian smoothed risk maps and excess risk maps were further used to investigate spatial patterns of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases. Global and local Moran's I statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation. Spatial-temporal scanning was used to detect spatiotemporal clusters and identify high-risk locations.ResultsA total of 537,506 cases of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Shandong Province during 2005-2014. The morbidity of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases had obvious seasonality with high morbidity in winter and spring. Local Moran's I analysis showed that there were 5, 23, 24, 4, 20, 8, 14, 10 and 7 high-risk counties determined for influenza A (H1N1), measles, tuberculosis, meningococcal meningitis, pertussis, scarlet fever, influenza, mumps and rubella, respectively. The spatial-temporal clustering analysis determined that the most likely cluster of influenza A (H1N1), measles, tuberculosis, meningococcal meningitis, pertussis, scarlet fever, influenza, mumps and rubella included 74, 66, 58, 56, 22, 64, 2, 75 and 56 counties, and the time frame was November 2009, March 2008, January 2007, February 2005, July 2007, December 2011, November 2009, June 2012 and May 2005, respectively.ConclusionsThere were obvious spatiotemporal clusters of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong during 2005-2014. More attention should be paid to the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases to establish new strategies for its control.

Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.

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