Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Walter JA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9204848 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.
| S-EPMC4013088 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.
| S-EPMC4081720 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C) and pCO2 (+400 µatm) projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2) and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.
| S-EPMC3572969 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes' 'ecological resilience', or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of 'engineering resilience', the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas.
| S-EPMC4584006 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Invasive plants are an ongoing subject of interest in North American forests, owing to their impacts on forest structure and regeneration, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. An important component of studying and managing forest invaders involves knowing where the species are, or could be, geographically located. Temporal and environmental context, in conjunction with spatially-explicit species occurrence information, can be used to address this need. Here, we predict the potential current and future distributions of four forest plant invaders in Minnesota: common buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica), glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus), garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), and multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora). We assessed the impact of two different climate change scenarios (IPCC RCP 6.0 and 8.5) at two future timepoints (2050s and 2070s) as well as the importance of occurrence data sources on the potential distribution of each species. Our results suggest that climate change scenarios considered here could result in a potential loss of suitable habitat in Minnesota for both buckthorn species and a potential gain for R. multiflora and A. petiolata. Differences in predictions as a result of input occurrence data source were most pronounced in future climate projections.
| S-EPMC7392769 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Forest production efficiency (FPE) metric describes how efficiently the assimilated carbon is partitioned into plants organs (biomass production, BP) or-more generally-for the production of organic matter (net primary production, NPP). We present a global analysis of the relationship of FPE to stand-age and climate, based on a large compilation of data on gross primary production and either BP or NPP. FPE is important for both forest production and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake. We find that FPE increases with absolute latitude, precipitation and (all else equal) with temperature. Earlier findings-FPE declining with age-are also supported by this analysis. However, the temperature effect is opposite to what would be expected based on the short-term physiological response of respiration rates to temperature, implying a top-down regulation of carbon loss, perhaps reflecting the higher carbon costs of nutrient acquisition in colder climates. Current ecosystem models do not reproduce this phenomenon. They consistently predict lower FPE in warmer climates, and are therefore likely to overestimate carbon losses in a warming climate.
| S-EPMC7578801 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Short term variation in environmental conditions requires individuals to adapt via changes in behavior and/or physiology. In particular variation in temperature and humidity are common, and the physiological adaptation to changes in temperature and humidity often involves alterations in gene expression, in particular that of heat-shock proteins. However, not only traits involved in the resistance to environmental stresses, but also other traits, such as immune defenses, may be influenced indirectly by changes in temperature and humidity. Here we investigated the response of the ant F. exsecta to two temperature regimes (20°C & 25°C), and two humidity regimes (50% & 75%), for two populations. We measured the survival and the expression of six metabolism- and immunity-related genes, and furthermore compared the expression levels in each condition with the pre-experiment expression levels. Both populations survived equally well at the two humidities, but one population showed higher mortality at 25°C than 20°, at 50% humidity. Similarly, the two populations showed striking differences in their gene expression before the experiment, and in their responses to the environmental conditions. Surprisingly, instead of converging to similar expression levels in the same environmental conditions, gene expression diverged further apart. This indicates different reaction norms to both temperature and humidity for the two populations. Furthermore, our results suggest that also immune defenses are indirectly affected by environmental conditions.
| S-EPMC5536355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change-induced spatial and temporal variability of stremflow has significant implications for hydrological processes and water supplies at basin scale. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Kurau River Basin in Malaysia using a Climate-Smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) to predict future climate sequences. For this, we used 25 reliazations consisting from 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The generated climate sequences were used as input to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate projected changes in hydrological processes in the basin over the period 2021-2080. The model performed fairly well for the Kurau River Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) of 0.65, 0.65 and -3.0, respectively for calibration period (1981-1998) and 0.60, 0.59 and -4.6, respectively for validation period (1996-2005). Future projections over 2021-2080 period show an increase in rainfall during August to January (relatively wet season, called the main irrigation season) but a decrease in rainfall during February to July (relatively dry season, called the off season). Temperature projections show increase in both the maximum and minimum temperatures under the three RCP scenarios, with a maximum increase of 2.5?°C by 2021-2080 relative to baseline period of 1976-2005 under RCP8.5 scenario. The model predicted reduced streamflow under all RCP scenarios compared to the baseline period. Compared to 2021-2050 period, the projected streamflow will be higher during 2051-2080 period by 1.5 m3/s except in February for RCP8.5. The highest streamflow is predicted during August to December for both future periods under RCP8.5. The seasonal changes in streamflow range between -2.8% and -4.3% during the off season, and between 0% (nil) and -3.8% during the main season. The assessment of the impacts of climatic variabilities on the available water resources is necessary to identify adaptation strategies. It is supposed that such assessment on the Kurau River Basin under changing climate would improve operation policy for the Bukit Merah reservoir located at downstream of the basin. Thus, the predicted streamflow of the basin would be of importance to quantify potential impacts of climate change on the Bukit Merah reservoir and to determine the best possible operational strategies for irrigation release.
| S-EPMC7239930 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.
| S-EPMC5884431 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In a warming climate, rising seawater temperatures and declining primary and secondary production will drastically affect growth and fitness of marine invertebrates in the northern Atlantic Ocean. To study the ecological performance of juvenile hydroids Hydractinia echinata we exposed them to current and predicted water temperatures which reflect the conditions in the inter- and subtidal in combination with changing food availability (high and low) in laboratory experiments. Here we show, that the interplay between temperature stress and diminished nutrition affected growth and vitality of juvenile hydroids more than either factor alone, while high food availability mitigated their stress responses. Our numerical growth model indicated that the growth of juvenile hydroids at temperatures beyond their optimum is a saturation function of energy availability. We demonstrated that the combined effects of environmental stressors should be taken into consideration when evaluating consequences of climate change. Interactive effects of ocean warming, decreasing resource availability and increasing organismal energy demand may have major impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.
| S-EPMC8021570 | biostudies-literature