Dataset Information

Evolution-based mathematical models significantly prolong response to abiraterone in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer and identify strategies to further improve outcomes.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Abiraterone acetate is an effective treatment for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), but evolution of resistance inevitably leads to progression. We present a pilot study in which abiraterone dosing is guided by evolution-informed mathematical models to delay onset of resistance.

Methods

In the study cohort, abiraterone was stopped when PSA was <50% of pretreatment value and resumed when PSA returned to baseline. Results are compared to a contemporaneous cohort who had >50% PSA decline after initial abiraterone administration and met trial eligibility requirements but chose standard of care (SOC) dosing.

Results

17 subjects were enrolled in the adaptive therapy group and 16 in the SOC group. All SOC subjects have progressed, but four patients in the study cohort remain stably cycling (range 53-70 months). The study cohort had significantly improved median time to progression (TTP; 33.5 months; p<0.001) and median overall survival (OS; 58.5 months; hazard ratio, 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.20-0.83, p<0.001) compared to 14.3 and 31.3 months in the SOC cohort. On average, study subjects received no abiraterone during 46% of time on trial. Longitudinal trial data demonstrated the competition coefficient ratio (α_RS/α_SR) of sensitive and resistant populations, a critical factor in intratumoral evolution, was two- to threefold higher than pre-trial estimates. Computer simulations of intratumoral evolutionary dynamics in the four long-term survivors found that, due to the larger value for α_RS/α_SR, cycled therapy significantly decreased the resistant population. Simulations in subjects who progressed predicted further increases in OS could be achieved with prompt abiraterone withdrawal after achieving 50% PSA reduction.

Conclusions

Incorporation of evolution-based mathematical models into abiraterone monotherapy for mCRPC significantly increases TTP and OS. Computer simulations with updated parameters from longitudinal trial data can estimate intratumoral evolutionary dynamics in each subject and identify strategies to improve outcomes.

Funding

Moffitt internal grants and NIH/NCI U54CA143970-05 (Physical Science Oncology Network).

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9239688 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Docetaxel (D) at the time of starting androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for metastatic castrate naive prostate cancer shows a clear survival benefit for patients with high-volume (HV) disease. It is unclear whether patients with low-volume (LV) disease benefit from early D. OBJECTIVE:To define the overall survival (OS) of aggregate data of patient subgroups from the CHAARTED and GETUG-AFU15 studies, defined by metastatic burden (HV and LV) and time of metastasis occurrence (at diagnosis or after prior local treatment [PRLT]). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Data were accessed from two independent phase III trials of ADT alone or ADT+D-GETUG-AFU15 (N=385) and CHAARTED (N=790), with median follow-ups for survivors of 83.2 and 48.2 mo, respectively. The definition of HV and LV disease was harmonized. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:The primary end point was OS. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Meta-analysis results of the aggregate data showed significant heterogeneity in ADT+D versus ADT effect sizes between HV and LV subgroups (p=0.017), and failed to detect heterogeneity in ADT+D versus ADT effect sizes between upfront and PRLT subgroups (p=0.4). Adding D in patients with HV disease has a consistent effect in improving median OS (HV-ADT: 34.4 and 35.1 mo, HV-ADT+D: 51.2 and 39.8 mo in CHAARTED and GETUG-AFU15, respectively; pooled average hazard ratio or HR (95% confidence interval [CI]) 0.68 ([95% CI 0.56; 0.82], p<0.001). Patients with LV disease showed much longer OS, without evidence that D improved OS (LV-ADT: not reached [NR] and 83.4; LV-ADT+D: 63.5 and NR in CHAARTED and GETUG-AFU15, respectively; pooled HR (95% CI) 1.03 (95% CI 0.77; 1.38). Aggregate data showed no evidence of heterogeneity of early D in LV and HV subgroups irrespective of whether patients had PRLT or not. Post hoc subgroup analysis was based on aggregated data from two independent phase III randomized trials. CONCLUSIONS:There was no apparent survival benefit in the CHAARTED and GETUG-AFU15 studies with D for LV. Across both studies, early D showed consistent effect and improved OS in HV patients. PATIENT SUMMARY:Patients with a higher burden of metastatic prostate cancer starting androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) have a poorer prognosis and are more likely to benefit from early docetaxel. Low-volume patients have longer overall survival with ADT alone, and the toxicity of docetaxel may outweigh its benefits.

Project description:BackgroundBoth abiraterone and enzalutamide have shown to improve overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) regardless of previous treatment with chemotherapy (COU-AA3011, COU-AA3022, AFFIRM3 and PREVAIL4). The data regarding the impact of these treatments in the real world setting is scarce. This study assessed the real world survival and disease outcomes in mCRPC patients in a regional health service in Victoria with the use of abiraterone and enzalutamide.MethodsThis retrospective clinical audit included 75 patients with diagnosis of mCRPC treated with either abiraterone or enzalutamide between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2019, at Goulburn Valley Health. Patients were stratified according to the drug received, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Gleason score, burden of disease at diagnosis, presence of visceral metastases and use of previous chemotherapy. The primary end point was PSA response (defined as a reduction in the PSA level from baseline by 50% or more). The secondary outcomes were PSA PFS, radiographic PFS, and OS.ResultsThirty-seven patients received enzalutamide, and the other 38 received abiraterone. Only 20% of patients in either group had visceral metastases. 32% of patients receiving enzalutamide had a high burden of disease, compared to 53% receiving abiraterone. 38% of patients in the enzalutamide group and 53% in the abiraterone group had received prior chemotherapy. PSA response rates were higher in the enzalutamide group than abiraterone group (70.3% vs 37.8%). Both PSA and radiographic PFS were longer in the enzalutamide group than abiraterone group; 7 months vs 5 months for both end points. OS was also found to be longer in patients receiving enzalutamide; 30 months compared to only 13 months in patients receiving abiraterone.ConclusionBoth abiraterone and enzalutamide have shown to result in significant PSA response rates, as well as PFS and OS benefit in mCRPC patients in the real world setting. The difference in responses and survival benefit are probably impacted by the unbalanced burden of disease.

Project description:Phase III randomized trial data have confirmed the activity for olaparib in homologous recombination repair (HRR) mutated metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) post next-generation hormonal agent (NHA) progression. Preclinical data have suggested the potential for a combined effect between olaparib and NHAs irrespective of whether an HRR gene alteration was present. NCT01972217 was a randomised double-blind Phase II study which evaluated olaparib and abiraterone versus placebo and abiraterone in mCRPC patients who had received prior chemotherapy containing docetaxel. The study showed that radiologic progression was significantly delayed by the combination of olaparib and abiraterone regardless of homologous recombination repair mutation (HRRm) status. The study utilized tumour, blood (germline), and circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) analysis to profile patient HRRm status, but tumour tissue provision was not mandated, leading to relatively low tissue acquisition and DNA sequencing success rates not representative of real-world testing. Further analysis of germline and ctDNA samples has been performed for the trial to characterize HRRm status more fully and robustly analyse patient response to treatment. Germline and plasma testing increased the HRRm characterized population from 27% to 68% of 142 randomized patients. Tumour-derived variants were detectable with high confidence in 78% of patients with a baseline plasma sample (71% of randomized patients). There was high concordance across methodologies (plasma vs. tumour; plasma vs. germline). The HR for the exploratory analysis of radiographic progression-free survival was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.32-0.93) in favour of olaparib and abiraterone in the updated HRR wild type (HRRwt) group (n = 73) and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.23-1.65) in the HRRm group (n = 23). Our results confirm the value of plasma testing for HRRm status when there is insufficient high-quality tissue for multi-gene molecular testing. We show that patients with mCRPC benefit from the combination of olaparib and abiraterone treatment regardless of HRRm status. The combination is currently being further investigated in the Phase III PROpel trial.