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Bubblewrap: Online tiling and real-time flow prediction on neural manifolds.

ABSTRACT: While most classic studies of function in experimental neuroscience have focused on the coding properties of individual neurons, recent developments in recording technologies have resulted in an increasing emphasis on the dynamics of neural populations. This has given rise to a wide variety of models for analyzing population activity in relation to experimental variables, but direct testing of many neural population hypotheses requires intervening in the system based on current neural state, necessitating models capable of inferring neural state online. Existing approaches, primarily based on dynamical systems, require strong parametric assumptions that are easily violated in the noise-dominated regime and do not scale well to the thousands of data channels in modern experiments. To address this problem, we propose a method that combines fast, stable dimensionality reduction with a soft tiling of the resulting neural manifold, allowing dynamics to be approximated as a probability flow between tiles. This method can be fit efficiently using online expectation maximization, scales to tens of thousands of tiles, and outperforms existing methods when dynamics are noise-dominated or feature multi-modal transition probabilities. The resulting model can be trained at kiloHertz data rates, produces accurate approximations of neural dynamics within minutes, and generates predictions on submillisecond time scales. It retains predictive performance throughout many time steps into the future and is fast enough to serve as a component of closed-loop causal experiments.

SUBMITTER: Draelos A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9247712 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:To evaluate Hotelling's T(2) statistic and the input variable squared prediction error (Q((X))) for detecting large respiratory surrogate-based tumor displacement prediction errors without directly measuring the tumor's position.Tumor and external marker positions from a database of 188 Cyberknife Synchrony™ lung, liver, and pancreas treatment fractions were analyzed. The first ten measurements of tumor position in each fraction were used to create fraction-specific models of tumor displacement using external surrogates as input; the models were used to predict tumor position from subsequent external marker measurements. A partial least squares (PLS) model with four scores was developed for each fraction to determine T(2) and Q((X)) confidence limits based on the first ten measurements in a fraction. The T(2) and Q((X)) statistics were then calculated for every set of external marker measurements. Correlations between model error and both T(2) and Q((X)) were determined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to evaluate sensitivities and specificities of T(2), Q((X)), and T(2)∪Q((X)) for predicting real-time tumor localization errors >3 mm over a range of T(2) and Q((X)) confidence limits.Sensitivity and specificity of detecting errors >3 mm varied with confidence limit selection. At 95% sensitivity, T(2)∪Q((X)) specificity was 15%, 2% higher than either T(2) or Q((X)) alone. The mean time to alarm for T(2)∪Q((X)) at 95% sensitivity was 5.3 min but varied with a standard deviation of 8.2 min. Results did not differ significantly by tumor site.The results of this study establish the feasibility of respiratory surrogate-based online monitoring of real-time respiration-induced tumor motion model accuracy for lung, liver, and pancreas tumors. The T(2) and Q((X)) statistics were able to indicate whether inferential model errors exceeded 3 mm with high sensitivity. Modest improvements in specificity were achieved by combining T(2) and Q((X)) results.

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Bubblewrap: Online tiling and real-time flow prediction on neural manifolds.

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