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Malignancy rates in thyroid nodules - a long-term cohort study of 17,592 patients.

ABSTRACT: Objectives Ultrasound diagnosis of thyroid nodules has greatly increased their detection rate. Their risk for malignancy is estimated between 7 and 15% in data from specialized centers which are used for guidelines recommendations. This high rate causes considerable anxiety to patients upon first diagnosis. Here we retrospectively analyzed the malignancy rate of sonographically diagnosed nodules larger 1cm from a primary/secondary care center when long-term longitudinal follow-up was included. Patients/Methods 17,592 patients were diagnosed with a thyroid nodule larger than 1cm, of whom 7,776 were assessed by fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) and 9,816 by sonography alone. 9568 patients were discharged following initial diagnosis due to innocent results of FNAC and/or ultrasound. In 1,904 patients definitive histology was obtained and 6,731 cases were included in long-term follow-up (up to 23 years with a median of 5 years). Results Malignancy was histologically confirmed in 189 patients (1.1% of all) when excluding accidentally diagnosed papillary microcarcinomas. 155 were diagnosed during the first year of management, 25 in years 2-5 of follow-up, 9 in years 6-10 and nil in 1,165 patients followed beyond 10 years. Conclusions Malignancy rate of thyroid nodules from primary/secondary care was much lower than that previously reported. During follow-up for more than 5 years their rate rapidly dropped to less than 1/1000 cases. This low malignancy rate may help to reassure patients first confronted with the diagnosis of a thyroid nodule, substantially reduce their anxiety and avoid unwarranted diagnostic and therapeutic procedures.

SUBMITTER: Grussendorf M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9254276 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Gene panels are routinely used to assess predisposition to hereditary cancers by simultaneously testing multiple susceptibility genes and/or variants. More recently, genetic panels have been implemented as part of solid tumor malignancy testing assessing somatic alterations. One example is targeted variant panels for thyroid nodules that are not conclusively malignant or benign upon fine-needle aspiration (FNA). We systematically reviewed published studies from 2009 to 2018 that contained genetic data from preoperative FNA specimens on cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) that subsequently underwent surgical resection. Pooled prevalence estimates per gene and variant, along with their respective positive predictive values (PPVs) for malignancy, were calculated. Summary: Our systematic search identified 540 studies that were supplemented by 18 studies from bibliographies or personal files. Sixty-one studies met all inclusion criteria and included >4600 ITNs. Overall, 26% of nodules contained at least 1 variant or fusion. However, half of them did not include details on the specific gene, variant, and/or complete fusion pair reported for inclusion toward PPV calculations. The PPVs of genomic alterations reported at least 10 times were limited to BRAFV600E (98%, 95% confidence interval [CI 96-99%]), PAX8/PPARG (55% [CI 34-78%]), HRASQ61R (45% [CI 22-72%]), BRAFK601E (42% [CI 19-68%]), and NRASQ61R (38% [CI 23-55%]). Excluding BRAFV600E, the pooled PPV for all other specified variants and fusions was 47%. Multiple variants within the same nodule were identified in ∼1% of ITN and carried a cumulative PPV of 77%. Conclusions: The chance that a genomic alteration predicts malignancy depends on the individual variant or fusion detected. Only five alterations were reported at least 10 times; BRAFV600E had a PPV of 98%, while the remaining four had individual PPVs ranging from 38% to 55%. The small sample size of most variants and fusion pairs found among ITNs, however, limits confidence in their individual PPV point estimates. Better specific reporting of genomic alterations with cytological category, histological subtype, and cancer staging would facilitate better understanding of cancer prediction, and the independent contribution of the genomic profile to prognosis.

Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the ability of the currently used ultrasound-based malignancy risk stratification systems for thyroid neoplasms (ATA, AACE/ACE/AME, K-TIRADS, EU-TIRADS, ACR-TIRADS and C-TIRADS) in distinguishing follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) from follicular thyroid adenoma (FTA). Additionally, we evaluated the ability of these systems in correctly determining the indication for biopsy.MethodsThree hundred twenty-nine follicular neoplasms with definitive postoperative histopathology were included. The nodules were categorized according to each of six stratification systems, based on ultrasound findings. We dichotomized nodules into the positive predictive group of FTC (high and intermediate risk) and negative group of FTC based on the classification results. Missed biopsy was defined as neoplasms that were diagnosed as FTCs but for which biopsy was not indicated based on lesion classification. Unnecessary biopsy was defined as neoplasms that were diagnosed as FTAs but for whom biopsy was considered indicated based on classification. The diagnostic performance and missed and unnecessary biopsy rates were evaluated for each stratification system.ResultsThe area under the curve of each system for distinguishing follicular neoplasms was < 0.700 (range, 0.511-0.611). The missed biopsy rates were 9.0-22.4%. The missed biopsy rates for lesions ≤ 4 cm and lesions sized 2-4 cm were 16.2-35.1% and 0-20.0%, respectively. Unnecessary biopsy rates were 65.3-93.1%. In ≤ 4 cm group, the unnecessary biopsy rates were 62.2-89.7%.ConclusionThe malignancy risk stratification systems can select appropriate nodules for biopsy in follicular neoplasms, while they have limitations in distinguishing follicular neoplasms and reducing unnecessary biopsy. Specific stratification systems and recommendations should be established for follicular neoplasms.Key points• Current ultrasound-based malignancy risk stratification systems of thyroid nodules had low efficiency in the characterization of follicular neoplasms. • The adopted stratification systems showed acceptable performance for selecting FTC for biopsy but unsatisfactory performance for reducing unnecessary biopsy.

Project description:BackgroundFine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) is a recognized technique for the basic, preoperative cytological diagnosis of thyroid nodules.Aim of the studyTo analyze the accuracy of FNAB in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in patients with solitary and multiple thyroid nodules and to compare the demographic, clinical and pathological characteristics of patients with thyroid carcinoma in solitary and multiple tumors.Materials and methodsThe case records of 2,403 patients with solitary and multiple thyroid tumors treated consecutively between 2008 and 2013 were analyzed retrospectively. We selected 1,645 for further analysis. A solitary thyroid nodule was observed in 493 patients, and multiple nodules were detected in 1,152 patients. Further classification of the patients in these two groups was performed on the basis of the FNAB results, type of surgery performed and histopathology. TC was histopathologically confirmed in 166 patients, and benign disease was found in 1,479. The TC patients were assigned to the study group, and those with benign thyroid disease were placed into the control group. The study group was divided into two subgroups according to the presence of cancer in a single thyroid nodule or in multiple nodules. Malignancy in a solitary thyroid nodule was diagnosed in 98 (59.0%) patients, and cancer in multiple nodules was diagnosed in 68 (41.0%). Comparative analyses of the demographic, clinical and histopathological characteristics were performed for both subgroups. The following statistical analyses were performed: comparative characteristic of subgroups, ROC analysis for study group and subgroup of patients, and multivariable logistic regression analysis for study group.ResultsThe rate of prediction of TC by FNAB was three times higher in the patients with a solitary thyroid nodule compared with those with multiple thyroid nodules and it was statistically significant (p<0.001). The rate of total thyroid resection and lack of necessity for reoperation were also significantly higher in the TC patients with a solitary nodule. The histopathological results showed that significantly more patients with a solitary nodule had advanced-stage TC (stage III or IV) and tumor progression (pT3 or pT4) (p = 0.002 for both). ROC analysis demonstrated that the overall accuracy of FNAB as a predictor of thyroid cancer presence was high, especially for the subgroup of patients with a solitary thyroid nodule (AUC = 0.958, p<0.0001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis confirmed that a positive FNAB result was the sole predictor of the performance of total resection in the TC study group (p<0.0001), while a negative FNAB result and the presence of a papillary cancer type were independent predictors of the risk of reoperation (p<0.0001 and p = 0.002, respectively).ConclusionsFNAB often produces false-negative results in patients with multiple malignant thyroid tumors, which results in reoperation in many cases. False-negative FNAB results are rare in patients with a solitary tumor. Because of the low predictive capacity of FNAB for thyroid cancer in patients with multiple thyroid tumors, total thyroid excision should be considered in most cases despite a "negative" (no malignant) FNAB result.

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Malignancy rates in thyroid nodules - a long-term cohort study of 17,592 patients.

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