Fertility decline in the United States, 1850-1930: New Evidence from Complete-Count Datasets.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hacker JD
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9255892 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.
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Project description:PurposeTo describe the association between daily activity (i.e., daily step counts and accelerometer intensity measures) and serum TT levels in a representative sample of US adults aged 18 years or older.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was carried out utilizing the NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) 2003-2004 cycle. Physical activity was measured with a waist-worn uniaxial accelerometer (AM-7164; ActiGraph) for up to 7 days using a standardized protocol. Using linear and multivariable logistic regression controlling for relevant social, demographic, lifestyle, and comorbidity characteristics, we assessed the association between daily step counts and TT.ResultsA total of 279 subjects with a median age 46 (IQR: 33-56) were included in the analysis. 23.3% of the cohort had a low serum TT level (TT < 350 ng/dl). Compared to men who took <4000 steps per day, men who took >4000 or >8000 steps/day had a lower odd of being hypogonadal (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.07-0.49 and 0.08, 95%CI: 0.02-0.44, respectively). While a threshold effect was noted on average, TT increased 7 ng/dL for each additional 1000 steps taken daily (β-estimate: 0.007, 95% CI: 0.002-0.013).ConclusionsPatients with the lowest daily step counts had higher odds of being hypogonadal. The current work supports a possible association between daily steps, total testosterone, and hypogonadism for men in the US.
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