Recent Decline in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Rates in the United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Shiels MS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7146982 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Recent Decline in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Rates in the United States.
Shiels Meredith S MS O'Brien Thomas R TR
Gastroenterology 20200119 5
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Project description:Background and aimsHCC is characterized by racial/ethnic disparities in rates. Recent USA reports suggest that incidence has begun to decline, but it is not clear whether the declines have occurred among all groups, nor whether mortality has declined. Thus, the current study examined USA incidence and mortality between 1992 and 2018.Approach & resultsHCC incidence and incidence-based mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were used to calculate age-standardized rates by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC). Age-period-cohort models assessed the effects on trends of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Overall, HCC incidence significantly declined between 2015 and 2018 (APC, -5.6%). Whereas most groups experienced incidence declines, the trends were most evident among Asians/Pacific Islanders, women, and persons <50 years old. Exceptions were the rates among non-Hispanic Black persons, which did not significantly decline (APC, -0.7), and among American Indians/Alaska Natives, which significantly increased (APC, +4.3%). Age-period-cohort modeling found that birth cohort had a greater effect on rates than calendar period. Among the baby boom cohorts, the 1950-1954 cohort had the highest rates. Similar to the overall incidence decline, HCC mortality rates declined between 2013 and 2018 (APC, -2.2%).ConclusionsHCC incidence and mortality rates began to decline for most groups in 2015, but persistent differences in rates continued to exist. Rates among non-Hispanic Black persons did not decline significantly, and rates among American Indians/Alaska Natives significantly increased, suggesting that greater effort is needed to reduce the HCC burden among these vulnerable groups.
| S-EPMC9352816 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prostate cancer incidence is sensitive to screening practices, however the impact of recent screening recommendations from the United States Preventative Services Task Force on prostate cancer incidence by age, stage, race, and Gleason score is unknown. This study described the timing and magnitude of changes in prostate cancer incidence trends in the United States by month of diagnosis, and evaluated trends by age, Gleason score, and stage at diagnosis. We analyzed prostate cancer incidence trends using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data for men diagnosed with invasive prostate cancer from 2007 through 2012. JoinPoint analysis was used to detect changes in the rate of annual percent change (APC) in prostate cancer incidence for all diagnoses and by age, Gleason score, race, and stage. Prostate cancer incidence declined at an estimated -19.6% APC beginning May 2011. This decline was observed in all age groups. Low-grade tumors (Gleason score ≤6) showed a steeper decline (-29.1% APC) than high-grade tumors (Gleason score 8-10: -10.8% APC). Only stage I/II and stage III tumors saw declines (-24.2% and -16.7% APC, respectively). A sharp decline in prostate cancer incidence began before release of the United States Preventative Services Task Force October 2011 draft and May 2012 final screening recommendation. The greatest change occurred with incidence of low-grade tumors, although there is concern that some high-grade tumors may now go undetected.
| S-EPMC4708896 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background: Circadian misalignment may increase the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to examine the association between distance from time zone meridian, a proxy for circadian misalignment, and HCC risk in the United States adjusting for known HCC risk factors.Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) provided information on 56,347 HCC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 from 16 population-based cancer registries in the United States. Distance from time zone meridian was estimated using the location of each SEER county's Center of Population in a geographic information system. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between distance from time zone meridian and HCC risk adjusting for individual-level age at diagnosis, sex, race/ethnicity, year of diagnosis, SEER registry, and county-level prevalence of health conditions, lifestyle factors, shift work occupation, socioeconomic status, and demographic and environmental factors.Results: A 5-degree increase in longitude moving east to west within a time zone was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for HCC (IRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14, P = 0.03). A statistically significant positive association was observed among those <65 years old, while no association was observed among individuals ≥65 years old (Pfor interaction < 0.01).Conclusions: Circadian misalignment from residing in the western region of a time zone may impact hepatocarcinogenesis.Impact: Circadian misalignment may be an independent risk factor for HCC. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(7); 719-27. ©2018 AACR.
| S-EPMC6035064 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With recent improvements in the treatment of end-stage liver disease (ESLD), a better understanding of the burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is needed in the United States. A population-based study using the US Census and national mortality database was performed. We identified the age-standardized etiology-specific mortality rates for cirrhosis and HCC among US adults ages 20 years or older from 2007 to 2016. We determined temporal mortality rate patterns by joinpoint analysis with estimates of annual percentage change (APC). Age-standardized cirrhosis-related mortality rates increased from 19.77/100,000 persons in 2007 to 23.67 in 2016 with an annual increase of 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0-2.7). The APC in mortality rates for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-cirrhosis shifted from a 2.9% increase per year during 2007 to 2014 to a 6.5% decline per year during 2014 to 2016. Meanwhile, mortality for cirrhosis from alcoholic liver disease (ALD, APC 4.5%) and NAFLD (APC 15.4%) increased over the same period, whereas mortality for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-cirrhosis decreased with an average APC of -1.1%. HCC-related mortality increased from 3.48/100,000 persons in 2007 to 4.41 in 2016 at an annual rate of 2.0% (95% CI 1.3-2.6). Etiology-specific mortality rates of HCC were largely consistent with cirrhosis-related mortality. Minority populations had a higher burden of HCC-related mortality. Conclusion: Cirrhosis-related and HCC-related mortality rates increased between 2007 and 2016 in the United States. However, mortality rates in HCV-cirrhosis demonstrated a significant decline from 2014 to 2016, during the direct-acting antiviral era. Mortality rates for ALD/NAFLD-cirrhosis and HCC have continued to increase, whereas HBV-cirrhosis-related mortality declined during the 10-year period. Importantly, minorities had a disproportionately higher burden of ESLD-related mortality.
| S-EPMC6709988 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has been increasing in the United States for several decades; and, as the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection declines and the prevalence of metabolic disorders rises, the proportion of HCC attributable to various risk factors may be changing.Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linkage were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each risk factor over time. Patients with HCC (n = 10,708) who were diagnosed during the years 2000 through 2011 were compared with a 5% random sample of cancer-free controls (n = 332,107) residing in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results areas. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and PAFs were calculated for HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), metabolic disorders, alcohol-related disorders, smoking, and genetic disorders.Overall, the PAF was greatest for metabolic disorders (32%), followed by HCV (20.5%), alcohol (13.4%), smoking (9%), HBV (4.3%), and genetic disorders (1.5%). The PAF for all factors combined was 59.5%. PAFs differed by race/ethnicity and sex. Metabolic disorders had the largest PAF among Hispanics (PAF, 39.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 31.9%-46.7%) and whites (PAF, 34.8%; 95% CI, 33.1%-36.5%), whereas HCV had the largest PAF among blacks (PAF, 36.1%; 95% CI, 31.8%-40.4%) and Asians (PAF, 29.7%; 95% CI, 25.9%-33.4%). Between 2000 and 2011, the PAF of metabolic disorders increased from 25.8% (95% CI, 22.8%-28.9%) to 36% (95% CI, 33.6%-38.5%). In contrast, the PAFs of alcohol-related disorders and HCV remained stable.Among US Medicare recipients, metabolic disorders contribute more to the burden of HCC than any other risk factor, and the fraction of HCC caused by metabolic disorders has increased in the last decade. Cancer 2016;122:1757-65. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA..
| S-EPMC5548177 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most commonly occurring type of primary liver cancer, has been increasing in incidence worldwide. Vitamin D, acquired from sunlight exposure, diet, and dietary supplements, has been hypothesized to impact hepatocarcinogenesis. However, previous epidemiologic studies examining the associations between dietary and serum vitamin D reported mixed results. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between ambient ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and HCC risk in the U.S.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database provided information on HCC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 from 16 population-based cancer registries across the U.S. Ambient UV exposure was estimated by linking the SEER county with a spatiotemporal UV exposure model using a geographic information system. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between ambient UV exposure per interquartile range (IQR) increase (32.4 mW/m2) and HCC risk adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, race, year of diagnosis, SEER registry, and county-level information on prevalence of health conditions, lifestyle, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.ResultsHigher levels of ambient UV exposure were associated with statistically significant lower HCC risk (n = 56,245 cases; adjusted IRR per IQR increase: 0.83, 95% CI 0.77, 0.90; p < 0.01). A statistically significant inverse association between ambient UV and HCC risk was observed among males (p for interaction = 0.01) and whites (p for interaction = 0.01).ConclusionsHigher ambient UV exposure was associated with a decreased risk of HCC in the U.S. UV exposure may be a potential modifiable risk factor for HCC that should be explored in future research.
| S-EPMC5562984 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates have been increasing in the United States for the past 35 years. Because HCC has a poor prognosis, quantitative forecasts could help to inform prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the incidence and burden of HCC.MethodsSingle-year HCC incident case and population data for the years 2000 to 2012 and ages 35 to 84 years were obtained from the SEER 18 Registry Database. We forecast incident HCC cases through 2030, using novel age-period-cohort models and stratifying by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Rates are presented because absolute numbers may be influenced by population increases.ResultsRates of HCC increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959. However, rates began to decrease with the 1960 to 1969 birth cohorts. Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs) have had the highest HCC rates in the United States for many years, but the rates have stabilized and begun to decline in recent years. Between 2013 and 2030, rates among APIs are forecast to decline further, with estimated annual percentage changes of -1.59% among men and -2.20% among women. Thus, by 2030, Asians are forecast to have the lowest incidence rates among men, and Hispanics are forecast to have the highest rates among men (age-standardized rate, 44.2). Blacks are forecast to have the highest rate among women (age-standardized rate, 12.82).ConclusionAlthough liver cancer has long had some of the most rapidly increasing incidence rates, the decreasing rates seen among APIs, individuals younger than 65 years, and cohorts born after 1960 suggest that there will be declines in incidence of HCC in future years. Prevention efforts should be focused on individuals in the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts, Hispanics, and blacks.
| S-EPMC4966339 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsIncidence rates for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) increased rapidly in the United States since the 1990s, but have plateaued or started to decrease in other industrialized countries. It unclear if and when a similar trend will be observed in the United States. We examined trends in HCC incidence rates in the United States by age, sex, and race/ethnicity of patients.MethodsWe calculated age-adjusted HCC incidence rates using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of cancer registries from 1992 through 2015. We estimated incidence rates by 10-year age group and used joinpoint regression to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander).ResultsHCC incidence increased by 4.8% per year from 1992 through 2010 (from 4.1 per 100,000 to 9.4 per 100,000) but then started to plateau (annual percentage change, -0.7; 95% CI, -2.0 to 0.7). Incidence rates steadily increased among persons 60 years or older in all racial/ethnic groups except Asian/Pacific Islanders 70 to 79 years old. In contrast, incidence rates decreased in younger and middle-aged adults, in men and women of all races/ethnicities, beginning in the mid-2000s. Rates decreased by 6.2% per year in persons 40 to 49 years old and by 10.3% per year in persons 50 to 59 years old. Annual decreases in incidence were larger among middle-aged blacks (17.2% decrease per year since 2012) compared with adults of the same age in other racial/ethnic groups.ConclusionsIn an analysis of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of cancer registries from 1992 through 2015, we found the incidence of HCC to be decreasing among younger and middle-aged adults in the United States, regardless of sex, race, or ethnicity. It is unclear whether current decreases in incidence will reduce the burden of HCC in the future.
| S-EPMC6817412 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a poor prognosis. Liver transplantation (LT) is potentially curative for localized HCC. We evaluated the impact of LT on U.S. general population HCC-specific mortality rates.MethodsThe Transplant Cancer Match Study links the U.S. transplant registry with 17 cancer registries. We calculated age-standardized incidence (1987-2017) and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates (1991-2017) for adult HCCs. We partitioned population-level IBM rates by cancer stage and calculated counterfactual IBM rates assuming transplanted cases had not received a transplant.ResultsAmong 129,487 HCC cases, 45.9% had localized cancer. HCC incidence increased on average 4.0% annually [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.5]. IBM also increased for HCC overall (2.9% annually; 95% CI = 1.7-4.2) and specifically for localized stage HCC (4.8% annually; 95% CI = 4.0-5.5). The proportion of HCC-related transplants jumped sharply from 6.7% (2001) to 18.0% (2002), and further increased to 40.0% (2017). HCC-specific mortality declined among both nontransplanted and transplanted cases over time. In the absence of transplants, IBM for localized HCC would have increased at 5.3% instead of 4.8% annually.ConclusionsLT has provided survival benefit to patients with localized HCC. However, diagnosis of many cases at advanced stages, limited availability of donor livers, and improved mortality for patients without transplants have limited the impact of transplantation on general population HCC-specific mortality rates.ImpactAlthough LT rates continue to rise, better screening and treatment modalities are needed to halt the rising HCC mortality rates in the United States.See related commentary by Zhang and Thrift, p. 435.
| S-EPMC8052263 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite a rise in the prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), data on HCC-related hospitalizations and financial burden are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate temporal trends of HCC-related hospitalizations and evaluate its financial influence.Materials and methodsPatients with the diagnosis of HCC, as reported by International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision code, were identified from the National Inpatient Sample databases from 2002-2011. The national estimates of hospitalizations were derived using appropriate sample weights. The change in total average charges per each hospitalization over the study period was calculated after adjusting for inflation.ResultsHospitalizations related to HCC have increased from 24,024 in 2002 to 50,609 in 2011. Of these admissions, HCC was the principal diagnosis in 10,762 and 16,350 subjects in 2002 and 2011, respectively. Most were white males (male: 70%; white: 55%). The overall inpatient mortality was significantly decreased from 13.5% in 2002 to 9.9% in 2011 (P < 0.01). The same trend was also observed for the length of hospital stay (6.5 versus 5.6 days in 2002 and 2011, respectively). The inflation-adjusted cost per hospitalization increased by approximately 47% during the study period.ConclusionsDespite the decrease in mortality rate and length-of-stay, hospitalizations and financial burden associated with HCC continued to increase between 2002 and 2011 in the United States.
| S-EPMC5986560 | biostudies-literature