Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 reached Latin-American countries slightly later than European countries, around February/March, allowing some emergency preparedness response in countries characterized by low health system capacities and socioeconomic disparities.ObjectiveThis paper focuses on the first months of the pandemic in five Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. It analyses how the pre-pandemic context, and the government's responses to contain and mitigate the spread together with economic measures have affected the COVID-19 health outcomes.MethodsExtensive qualitative document analysis was conducted focused on publicly-available epidemiological data and federal and state/regional policy documents since the beginning of the pandemic.ResultsThe countries were quick to implement stringent COVID-19 measures and incrementally scaled up their health systems capacity, although tracing and tracking have been poor. All five countries have experienced a large number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. The analysis on the excess deaths also shows that the impact in deaths is far higher than the official numbers reported to date for some countries.ConclusionDespite the introduction of stringent measures of containment and mitigation, and the scale up of health system capacities, pre-pandemic conditions that characterize these countries (high informal employment, and social inequalities) have undermined the effectiveness of the countries' responses to the pandemic. The economic support measures put in place were found to be too timid for some countries and introduced too late in most of them. Additionally, the lack of a comprehensive strategy for testing and tracking has also contributed to the failure to contain the spread of the virus.
Project description:BackgroundThe rising prevalence of cognitive impairment is an increasing challenge with the ageing of our populations but little is known about the burden in low- and middle- income Latin American and Caribbean countries (LAC) that are aging more rapidly than their developed counterparts. We examined life expectancies with cognitive impairment (CILE) and free of cognitive impairment (CIFLE) in seven developing LAC countries.MethodsData from The Survey on Health, Well-being and Ageing in LAC (N = 10,597) was utilised and cognitive status was assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The Sullivan Method was applied to estimate CILE and CIFLE. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of age, gender and education on cognitive outcome. Meta-regression models were fitted for all 7 countries together to investigate the relationship between CIFLE and education in men and women at age 60.ResultsThe prevalence of CI increased with age in all countries except Uruguay and with a significant gender effect observed only in Mexico where men had lower odds of CI compared to women [OR = 0.464 95% CInt (0.268 - 0.806)]. Low education was associated with increased prevalence of CI in Brazil [OR = 4.848 (1.173-20.044)], Chile [OR = 3.107 (1.098-8.793), Cuba [OR = 2.295 (1.247-4.225)] and Mexico [OR = 3.838 (1.368-10.765). For males, total life expectancy (TLE) at age 60 was highest in Cuba (19.7 years) and lowest in Brazil and Uruguay (17.6 years). TLE for females at age 60 was highest for Chileans (22.8 years) and lowest for Brazilians (20.2 years). CIFLE for men was greatest in Cuba (19.0 years) and least in Brazil (16.7 years). These differences did not appear to be explained by educational level (Men: p = 0.408, women: p = 0.695).ConclusionIncreasing age, female sex and low education were associated with higher CI in LAC reflecting patterns found in other countries.
Project description:In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.
Project description:Background and objectivesThe confinement by COVID-19 has affected the food chain and environments, which added to factors such as anxiety, frustration, fear and stress have modified the quality of the diet in the population around the world. The purpose of this study was to explore diet quality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 11 Latin American countries.MethodologyMulticentric, cross-sectional study. An online survey was applied to residents of 11 Latin-American countries, during April and May 2020, when confinement was mandatory. Diet quality was evaluated using a validated questionnaire.Result10,573 people participated in the study. The quality of the food by country shows that Colombia presented the best quality, while Chile and Paraguay presented the lowest. When comparing the overall results of diet quality by gender, schooling and age, women, people with more schooling and people under 30 years of age, presented better diet quality. The regression model showed that the variables associated with diet quality were: age (df = 3, F = 4. 57, p < 0.001), sex (df = 1, F = 131.01, p < 0.001), level of education (df = 1, F = 38.29, p < 0.001), perception of weight change (df = 2, F = 135.31, p < 0.001), basis services (df = 1, F = 8.63, p = 0.003), and quarantine (df = 1, F = 12.14, p = 0.001).ConclusionIt is necessary for governments to intervene to reverse these indicators, considering that inadequate feeding favors the appearance of no communicable diseases, which favor a higher risk of infection and worse prognosis with COVID-19.
Project description:The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population’s behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers’ decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.
Project description:Social isolation is extremely important to minimize the effects of a pandemic. Latin American countries have similar socioeconomic characteristics and health system infrastructures. These countries face difficulties in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of them have very high death rates. The government stringency index (GSI) of 12 Latin American countries was gathered from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project. The GSI is calculated by considering nine social distancing and isolation measures. Population data from the United Nations Population Fund and number-of-deaths data were collected from the dashboard of the WHO. We performed an analysis of the data collected from March through December 2020 using a mixed linear model. Peru, Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Argentina, and Ecuador had the highest death rates, with an increasing trend over time. Suriname, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Guyana had the lowest death rates, and these rates remained steady. The GSI in most countries followed the same pattern during the months analyzed. In other words, high indices at the beginning of the pandemic and lower indices in the latter months, whereas the number of deaths increased during the entire period. Almost no country kept its GSI high for a long time, especially from October to December. Time and GSI, as well as their interaction, were highly significant. As their interaction increases, the death rate decreases. In conclusion, a greater GSI at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decrease in the number of deaths over time in Latin American countries.
Project description:As safe and effective vaccines become widely available, attaining herd immunity and limiting the spread of COVID-19 will depend on individuals choosing to vaccinate-and doing so quickly enough to outpace mutations. Using online surveys conducted across six Latin American countries in January 2021, we experimentally assess messages designed to counteract informational deficiencies and collective action problems that may drive hesitancy. We first find that basic vaccine information persuades around 8% of hesitant individuals to become willing to vaccinate, reduces intended wait to vaccinate by 0.4 months, and increases willingness to encourage others to vaccinate. Rather than facilitating free riding, learning, or social conformity, additional information about others' behavior increases vaccine acceptance when respondents expect herd immunity will be achieved. Finally, priming the social approval benefits of vaccinating also increases vaccine acceptance. These results suggest that providing information and shaping social expectations and incentives could both significantly increase vaccine uptake.
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted the Americas, the continent with the highest number of COVID-related deaths according to WHO statistics. In Latin America, strict confinement conditions at the beginning of the pandemic put recycling activity to a halt and augmented the consumption of plastic as a barrier to stop the spread of the virus. The lack of data to understand waste management dynamics complicates waste management strategy adjustments aimed at coping with COVID-19. As a novel contribution to the waste management data gap for Latin America, this study uses a virtual and participatory methodology that collects and generates information on household solid waste generation and composition. Data was collected between June and November 2021 in six countries in Latin America, with a total of 503 participants. Participants indicated that the pandemic motivated them to initiate or increase waste reduction (41%), waste separation (40%), and waste recovery (33%) activities. Forty-three percent of participants perceived an increase in total volume of their waste; however, the quantitative data showed a decrease in household waste generation in Peru (−31%), Honduras (−25%), and Venezuela (−82%). No changes in waste composition were observed. Despite the limited sample size, this data provides a much-needed approximation of household waste generation and composition in the pandemic situation during 2021. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10661-022-10771-9.
Project description:BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age.MethodsWe obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death.ResultsThe estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2-59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%-35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%-41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%-18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0-34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%-47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2-59 months since introduction.ConclusionsAlthough the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.
Project description:Population-wide sodium reduction is a cost-effective approach to address the adverse health effects associated with excess sodium consumption. Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries consume excess dietary sodium. Packaged foods are a major contributor to sodium intake and a target for sodium reduction interventions. This study examined sodium levels in 12 categories of packaged foods sold in 14 LAC (n = 16,357). Mean sodium levels and percentiles were examined. Sodium levels were compared to regional sodium reduction targets. In this baseline analysis, 82% of foods met the regional target and 47% met the lower target. The greatest proportion of products meeting the regional target were uncooked pasta and noodles (98%), flavored cookies/crackers (97%), seasonings for sides/main dishes (96%), mayonnaise (94%), and cured/preserved meats (91%). A large proportion of foods met the lower target among uncooked pasta and noodles (88%), cooked pasta and noodles (88%), and meat/fish seasonings (88%). The highest the highest median sodium levels were among condiments (7778 mg/100 g), processed meats (870 mg/100 g), mayonnaise (755 mg/100 g), bread products (458 mg/100 g), cheese (643 mg/100 g), and snack foods (625 mg/100 g). These baseline data suggest that sodium reduction targets may need to be more stringent to enable effective lowering of sodium intake.