Dataset Information

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models. Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend. Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.

SUBMITTER: Briones J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9273740 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.

Briones Jamaica J Wang Yi Y Prawjaeng Juthamas J Wee Hwee Lin HL Kairu Angela A Orangi Stacey S Barasa Edwine E Teerawattananon Yot Y

International journal of public health 20220628

<b>Objective:</b> To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. <b>Methods:</b> We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The ch ...[more]

PMID: 35837381

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Project description:Graphical abstract Background As Covid-19 spread rapidly, many countries implemented a strict shelter-in-place to “flatten the curve” and build capacity to treat in the absence of effective preventative therapies or treatments. Policymakers and public health officials must balance the positive health effects of lockdowns with economic, social, and psychological costs. This study examined the economic impacts of state and county level restrictions during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic for two regions of Georgia. Methods Taking unemployment data from the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker with mandate information from various sites, we examined trends before and after a mandate's implementation and relaxation using joinpoint regression. Results We found mandates with the largest impact on unemployment claims rates were the shelters-in-place (SIPs) and closures of non-essential businesses. Specific to our study, mandates had an effect where first implemented, i.e., if the state implemented an SIP after the county, the state-wide SIP had no additional measurable effect on claims rates. School closures had a consistent impact on increasing unemployment claims rates, but to a lesser degree than SIPs or business closures. While closing businesses did have a deleterious effect, implementing social distancing for businesses and restricting gatherings did not. Notably, the Coastal region was less affected than the Metro Area. Additionally, our findings indicate that race ethnicity may be a larger predictor of adverse economic effects than education, poverty level, or geographic area. Conclusions Our findings coincided with other studies in some areas but showed differences in what indicators may best predict adverse effects and that coastal communities may not always be as impacted as other regions in a state. Ultimately, the most restrictive measures consistently had the largest negative economic impacts. Social distancing and mask mandates can be effective for containment while mitigating the economic impacts of strict SIPs and business closures.

Project description:Background and objectivesGlobally, a number of countries have developed guidelines that describe the design and conduct of economic evaluations as part of health technology assessment (HTA) or pharmacoeconomic analysis for decision making. The current scoping review was undertaken with an objective to summarize the recommendations made on methods of economic evaluation by the national healthcare economic evaluation (HEE) guidelines.MethodologyA comprehensive search was undertaken in the website repositories of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomic and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and Guide to Economic Analysis and Research (GEAR), and websites of national HTA agencies and ministries of health of individual countries. All guidelines in the English language were included in this review. Data were extracted with respect to general and methodological characteristics, and a descriptive analysis of recommendations made across the countries was undertaken.ResultsOverall, our review included 31 national HEE guidelines, published between 1997 and August 2020. Nearly half (45%) of the guidelines targeted the evaluation of pharmaceuticals. The nature of the guidelines was either mandatory (31%), recommendatory (42%), or voluntary (16%). There was a substantial consensus among the guidelines on several key principles, including type of economic evaluation (cost-utility analysis), time horizon of the analysis (long enough), health outcome measure (quality-adjusted life-years) and use of sensitivity analyses. The recommendations on study perspective, comparator, discount rate and type of costs to be included (particularly the inclusion of indirect costs) varied widely.ConclusionDespite similarity in the overall processes, variation in several recommendations given by various national HEE guidelines was observed. This is perhaps unsurprising given the differences in the health systems and financing mechanisms, capacity of local researchers, and data availability. This review offers important lessons and a starting point for countries that are planning to develop their own HEE guidelines.

Project description:BackgroundThis study estimated the cost-effectiveness of four strategies enhancing the quality and accessibility of Brief Intervention (BI) service for smoking cessation in Thailand during 2022-2030: (1) current-BI (status quo), (2) the effective-training standard-BI, (3) the current-BI plus the village health volunteers (VHV) mobilization, and (4) the effective-training BI plus VHV mobilization.MethodsBy interviewing five public health officers, nine healthcare professionals aiding these services, and fifteen BI service experts, we explored the status quo situation of the Thai smoking cessation service system, including main activities, their quantity assumptions, and activities' unit prices needed to operate the current cessation service system. Then, we modeled additional activities needed to implement the other three simulated scenarios. We estimated the costs and impacts of implementing these strategies over a nine-year operating horizon (2022-2030), covering 3 years of service system preparation and 6 years of full implementation. The modeled costs of these four strategies included intervention and program costs. The study focused on current smokers age 15 years or older. The assessed impact parameters encompassed smoking prevalence, deaths averted, and healthy life-years gained. An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis compared the four simulated strategies was employed. Data analysis was performed using the One Health Tool software, which the World Health Organization developed.ResultsThe findings of this investigation reveal that all three intervention strategies exhibited cost-effectiveness compared to the prevailing status quo. Among these strategies, Strategy 2, enhancing BI service quality, emerged as the most efficient and efficacious option. Therefore, the expansion of quality services should be synergistically aligned with augmented training, service delivery optimization, and managerial enhancements.ConclusionThis approach is particularly poised to enhance accessibility to and the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions across Thailand.

Project description:BackgroundEarly childhood development (ECD) programs can help address disadvantages for the 43% of children under 5 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing compromised development. However, very few studies from LMIC settings include information on their program's cost-effectiveness or potential returns to investment. We estimated the cost-effectiveness, benefit-cost ratios (BCRs), and returns on investment (ROIs) for 2 effective group-based delivery models of an ECD parenting intervention that utilized Kenya's network of local community health volunteers (CHVs).Methods and findingsBetween October 1 and November 12, 2018, 1,152 mothers with children aged 6 to 24 months were surveyed from 60 villages in rural western Kenya. After baseline, villages were randomly assigned to one of 3 intervention arms: a group-only delivery model with 16 fortnightly sessions, a mixed-delivery model combining 12 group sessions with 4 home visits, and a control group. At endline (August 5 to October 31, 2019), 1,070 children were retained and assessed for primary outcomes including cognitive and receptive language development (with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Third Edition) and socioemotional development (with the Wolke scale). Children in the 2 intervention arms showed better developmental outcomes than children in the control arm, although the group-only delivery model generally had larger effects on children. Total program costs included provider's implementation costs collected during the intervention period using financial reports from the local nongovernmental organization (NGO) implementer, as well as societal costs such as opportunity costs to mothers and delivery agents. We combined program impacts with these total costs to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), as well as BCRs and the program's ROI for the government based on predictions of future lifetime wages and societal costs. Total costs per child were US$140 in the group-only arm and US$145 in the mixed-delivery arm. Because of higher intention-to-treat (ITT) impacts at marginally lower costs, the group-only model was the most cost-effective across all child outcomes. Focusing on child cognition in this arm, we estimated an ICER of a 0.37 standard deviation (SD) improvement in cognition per US$100 invested, a BCR of 15.5, and an ROI of 127%. A limitation of our study is that our estimated BCR and ROI necessarily make assumptions about the discount rate, income tax rates, and predictions of intervention impacts on future wages and schooling. We examine the sensitivity of our results to these assumptions.ConclusionsTo the best of our knowledge, this study is the first economic evaluation of an effective ECD parenting intervention targeted to young children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the first to adopt a societal perspective in calculating cost-effectiveness that accounts for opportunity costs to delivery agents and program participants. Our cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost estimates are higher than most of the limited number of prior studies from LMIC settings providing information about costs. Our results represent a strong case for scaling similar interventions in impoverished rural settings, and, under reasonable assumptions about the future, demonstrate that the private and social returns of such investments are likely to largely outweigh their costs.Trial registrationThis trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03548558, June 7, 2018. American Economic Association RCT Registry trial AEARCTR-0002913.

Dataset Information

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.

Publications

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.

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