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Quantifying political influence on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic was severely aggravated in Brazil due to its politicization by the country’s federal government. However, the impact of diffuse political forces on the fatality of an epidemic is notoriously difficult to quantify. Here we introduce a method to measure this effect in the Brazilian case, based on the inhomogeneous distribution throughout the national territory of political support for the federal government. This political support is quantified by the voting rates in the last general election in Brazil. This data is correlated with the fatality rates by COVID-19 in each Brazilian state as the number of deaths grows over time. We show that the correlation between fatality rate and political support grows as the government’s misinformation campaign is developed. This led to the dominance of such political factor for the pandemic impact in Brazil in 2021. Once this dominance is established, this correlation allows for an estimation of the total number of deaths due to political influence as 350±70 thousand up to the end of 2021, corresponding to (57±11)% of the total number of deaths.

SUBMITTER: de Almeida L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9275831 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) became the deadliest pandemic of the new millennium. One year after it became a pandemic, the current COVID-19 situation in Brazil is an example of how the impacts of a pandemic are beyond health outcomes and how health, social, and political actions are intertwined.ObjectivesWe aimed to provide an overview of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, from a social and political point of view, and to discuss the perspectives from now on.MethodsThis is a narrative review using official, scientific (PubMed, Medline, and SciELO databases) and publicly available data. Press articles were also used that contain important information not found in these databases.FindingsWe address the impacts of COVID-19 in different regions of Brazil, on indigenous populations, health care workers, and how internal social contrasts impacted the pandemics advance across the country. We also discuss key points that culminated in the countrys failed management of the COVID-19 spread, such as poor management of the public health care system, disparities between public and private health care infrastructure, lack of mass testing and viral spread tracking, lack of preparedness and planning to implement strict isolation and social distancing measures, and, most importantly, political instability, a deteriorating Health Ministry and sabotaging attitudes of the countrys president, including anti-scientific actions, underplaying COVID-19 severity, spreading and powering fake news about the pandemic, promoting knowingly inefficient medications for COVID-19 treatment, and interference in collective health policies, including the countrys vaccination plan.ConclusionsAfter one year of COVID-19 and a disastrous management of the disease, Brazil has more than 11 million cases, 270,000 deaths, and the highest number of daily deaths due to COVID-19 in the world, most of which could have been avoided and can be credited to negligence of municipal, state, and federal authorities, especially President Jair Messias Bolsonaro. Unfortunately, the country is an example of what not to do in a pandemic setting.Key pointsOne year after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Brazil had the second higher number of cases and deaths, and the highest number of daily deaths due to the disease. Lack of massive testing, non-stringent and ineffective collective health policies, poor management of the public health care system, and political instability were the main drivers of the countrys flawed management of the COVID-19 advancement. Anti-science and sabotaging actions by government had a pivotal role in the countrys current situation. Brazil has a large territory and is marked by social contrasts among different regions and states, which showed contrasting data regarding the impact caused by COVID-19. COVID-19 databases and data sharing are important to provide an overview of epidemiological aspects of the disease; however, Brazil lacks standardization in these datasets.

Project description:The Human Development Index measures a region's development and is a step for development debate beyond the traditional, economic perspective. It can also determine the success of a country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly affecting the case fatality rate among severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to associate the Human Development Index with the case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in each Brazilian state and the Federal District, taking into account comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. We also evaluated the influence of the GINI index, number of intensive care unit beds, and occupied households in subnormal clusters on the case fatality rate. We performed an ecological study including two populations: COVID-19 individuals that did not require the mechanical ventilation protocol; and COVID-19 individuals under invasive mechanical ventilation. We performed a Pearson correlation test and a univariate linear regression analysis on the relationship between Human Development Index, Human Development Index-Education Level, Human Development Index-Life Expectancy, and Human Development Index-Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 deaths. The same analyses were performed using the other markers. We grouped the patients with COVID-19 according to comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Alpha = 0.05. We included 848,501 COVID-19 individuals, out of which 153,710 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 314,164 died, and 280,533 COVID-19 individuals without comorbidity, out of which 33,312 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 73,723 died. We observed a low negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and death and a moderate negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and deaths of individuals on invasive mechanical ventilation, with or without comorbidity. The univariate linear analysis showed the case fatality rate depends on at least 20-40% of the Human Development Index. In Brazil, regions with a low Human Development Index demonstrated a higher case fatality rate due to COVID-19, mainly in individuals who needed invasive mechanical ventilation, than regions with a higher Human Development Index. Although other indexes studied, such as intensive care unit beds and GINI, were also associated with the COVID-19 case fatality rate, they were not as relevant as the Human Development Index. Brazil is a vast territory comprising cultural, social, and economic diversity, which mirrors the diversity of the Human Development Index. Brazil is a model nation for the study of the Human Development Index's influence on aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its impact on the case fatality rate.

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Quantifying political influence on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil

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