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Surprisingness and Occupational Engagement Influence Affective Forecasting in Career-Relevant Contexts

ABSTRACT: People tend to misestimate their future emotions. This phenomenon is thought to be associated with information accessibility. However, few studies have demonstrated the impact of context-specific information accessibility on affective forecasting. This research investigated the effects of information accessibility on affective forecasting in career context (i.e., occupational engagement was seen as information accessibility), during which surprise or not surprise context was played simultaneously. We found that affective forecasting appeared stably across emotional response types. Specifically, there was an underestimation in interest appraisals and an overestimation in satisfaction. These biases were influenced by occupational engagement, which only worked in career interest appraisals. High occupational engagement made people estimate their future emotions more accurately and overcome their forecasting bias. Surprisingness was then manipulated further to explain whether it could impact the effect of occupational engagement on affective forecasting. The emotional responses in both prediction and experience were affected by surprisingness, thus causing no affective forecasting biases. These results suggest the role of occupational engagement in affective forecasting and provide evidence supporting the information accessibility model about the mechanism in affective forecasting.

SUBMITTER: Lu D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9284276 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Social scientists have postulated that the discrepancy between achievements and expectations affects individuals' subjective well-being. Still, little has been done to qualify and quantify such a psychological effect. Our empirical analysis assesses the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors-the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being-on the subsequent level of subjective well-being.We use longitudinal data on a representative sample of 13,431 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel. In our sample, 52% of individuals are females, average age is 43 years, average years of education is 11.4 and 27% of our sample lives in East Germany. Subjective well-being (measured by self-reported life satisfaction) is assessed on a 0-10 discrete scale and its sample average is equal to 6.75 points.We develop a simple theoretical framework to assess the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors-the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being-on the subsequent level of subjective well-being, properly accounting for the endogenous adjustment of expectations to positive and negative affective forecasting errors, and use it to derive testable predictions. Given the theoretical framework, we estimate two panel-data equations, the first depicting the association between positive and negative affective forecasting errors and the successive level of subjective well-being and the second describing the correlation between subjective well-being expectations for the future and hedonic failures and successes. Our models control for individual fixed effects and a large battery of time-varying demographic characteristics, health and socio-economic status.While surpassing expectations is uncorrelated with subjective well-being, failing to match expectations is negatively associated with subsequent realizations of subjective well-being. Expectations are positively (negatively) correlated to positive (negative) forecasting errors. We speculate that in the first case the positive adjustment in expectations is strong enough to cancel out the potential positive effects on subjective well-being of beaten expectations, while in the second case it is not, and individuals persistently bear the negative emotional consequences of not achieving expectations.

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Surprisingness and Occupational Engagement Influence Affective Forecasting in Career-Relevant Contexts

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