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Emulating Control Arms for Cancer Clinical Trials Using External Cohorts Created From Electronic Health Record-Derived Real-World Data.

ABSTRACT: Electronic health record (EHR)-derived real-world data (RWD) can be sourced to create external comparator cohorts to oncology clinical trials. This exploratory study assessed whether EHR-derived patient cohorts could emulate select clinical trial control arms across multiple tumor types. The impact of analytic decisions on emulation results was also evaluated. By digitizing Kaplan-Meier curves, we reconstructed published control arm results from 15 trials that supported drug approvals from January 1, 2016, to April 30, 2018. RWD cohorts were constructed using a nationwide EHR-derived de-identified database by aligning eligibility criteria and weighting to trial baseline characteristics. Trial data and RWD cohorts were compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS; individual cohorts) and multitumor random effects models of hazard ratios (HRs) for median endpoint correlations (across cohorts). Post hoc, the impact of specific analytic decisions on endpoints was assessed using a case study. Comparing trial data and weighted RWD cohorts, PFS results were more similar (HR range = 0.63-1.18, pooled HR = 0.84, correlation of median = 0.91) compared to OS (HR range = 0.36-1.09, pooled HR = 0.76, correlation of median = 0.85). OS HRs were more variable and trended toward worse for RWD cohorts. The post hoc case study had OS HR ranging from 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56-0.79) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78-1.09) depending on specific analytic decisions. EHR-derived RWD can emulate oncology clinical trial control arm results, although with variability. Visibility into clinical trial cohort characteristics may shape and refine analytic approaches.

SUBMITTER: Tan K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9292216 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundEmulating randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by real-world evidence (RWE) studies would benefit future clinical and regulatory decision-making by balancing the limitations of RCT. We aimed to evaluate whether the findings from RWE studies can support regulatory decisions derived from RCTs of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE).MethodsFive landmark trials (AMPLIFY, RE-COVER II, Hokusai-VTE, EINSTEIN-DVT, and EINSTEIN-PE) of NOACs were emulated using the South Korean nationwide claims database (January 2012 to August 2020). We applied an active comparator and new-user design to include patients who initiated oral anticoagulants within 28 days from their VTE diagnoses. The prespecified eligibility criteria, exposure (each NOAC, such as apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban), comparator (conventional therapy, defined as subcutaneous heparin followed by warfarin), and the definition of outcomes from RCTs were emulated as closely as possible in each separate emulation cohort. The primary outcome was identical to each trial, which was defined as recurrent VTE or VTE-related death. The safety outcome was major bleeding. Propensity score matching was conducted to balance 69 covariates between the exposure groups. Effect estimates for outcomes were estimated using the Mantel-Haenszel method and Cox proportional hazards model and subsequently compared with the corresponding RCT estimates.ResultsCompared to trial populations, real-world study populations were older (range: 63-69 years [RWE] vs. 54-59 years [RCT]), with more females (55-60.5% vs. 39-48.3%) and had a higher prevalence of active cancer (4.2-15.4% vs. 2.5-9.5%). The emulated estimates for effectiveness outcomes showed superior effectiveness of NOAC (AMPLIFY: relative risk 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.94; RE-COVER II: hazard ratio [HR] 0.60, 0.37-0.96; Hokusai-VTE: 0.49, 0.31-0.78; EINSTEIN-DVT: 0.54, 0.33-0.89; EINSTEIN-PE: 0.50, 0.34-0.74), when contrasted with trials that showed non-inferiority. For safety outcomes, all emulations except for AMPLIFY and EINSTEIN-DVT yielded results consistent with their corresponding RCTs.ConclusionsThis study revealed the feasibility of complementing RCTs with RWE studies by using claims data in patients with VTE. Future studies to consider the different demographic characteristics between RCT and RWE populations are needed.

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Emulating Control Arms for Cancer Clinical Trials Using External Cohorts Created From Electronic Health Record-Derived Real-World Data.

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