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Skip-Stop Strategy Patterns optimization to enhance mass transit operation under physical distancing policy due to COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

ABSTRACT: After the widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, all public transport, including urban rail transit, inevitably adopted a vigorous physical-distancing policy to prevent the disease from spreading among passengers. Adoption of this measure resulted in a substantial reduction in train service capability and required control of the risk contact exposure duration. Thus, this paper proposes the Skip-Stop Strategy Patterns (3S-P) decision-support model to incorporate social distancing constraints in train operations. The 3S-P model is a two-stage, multi-objective optimization model for scheduling train skip-stop patterns to satisfy the study's two main objectives of minimizing the average passenger travel time and unserved passengers. In the proposed model, the first optimization identifies the optimal train skip-stop patterns, while the second assigns these patterns to establish an hourly train schedule. The paper's case study uses data from the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) SkyTrain Silom Line in Bangkok, Thailand and considers the 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m social distancing schemes. The results reveal that the optimal train skip-stop patterns are superior to the all-stop alternative with, on average, a 13.4% faster travel time at the same level of unserved passengers. Furthermore, the non-dominated schedules from the second optimization decrease the numbers of unserved passengers given equal average passenger travel times.

SUBMITTER: Limsawasd C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9301585 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSince March 2020, when coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic, many countries have applied unprecedented restrictive measures to contain the spread of the virus. This study aimed to explore the optimal social distancing policy for COVID-19 control in South Korea to safely reopen the society.MethodsWe developed an age-specific, deterministic compartment epidemic model to examine the COVID-19 control decision-making process, including the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between 1 July 2021 and 30 December 2022. The model consists of the natural history of COVID-19, testing performance, vaccinations, and social distancing enforcement measures to detect and control SARS-CoV-2. We modelled potential intervention scenarios with three distinct components: 1) social distancing duration and level; 2) testing intensity; and 3) vaccination uptake rate. The primary and secondary outcomes were COVID-19 incidence and prevalence of severe patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care.ResultsFour (or more) months of social distancing (that can reduce 40-60% transmission) may mitigate epidemic resurgence and ICU demand in the future and keep the cases below the capacity limit if the testing intensity and vaccination rate remain constant or increase by 20% (with respect to the current level). In contrast, two months of strict social distancing enforcement may also successfully mitigate future epidemic surge and ICU demand as long as testing intensity and vaccination rates are increased by 20%.ConclusionIn South Korea, given the relatively high vaccination coverage and low incidence, four or more months of social distancing enforcement can effectively mitigate epidemic resurgence after lifting the social distancing measures. In addition, increasing the testing intensity and vaccination rate may help reduce necessary social distancing levels and duration to prevent a future epidemic resurgence and mitigate social and economic damage.

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Skip-Stop Strategy Patterns optimization to enhance mass transit operation under physical distancing policy due to COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

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