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Developing and validating a mortality prediction model for ICH in ITP: a nationwide representative multicenter study.

ABSTRACT: Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare and life-threatening hemorrhagic event in patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). However, its mortality and related risk factors remain unclear. Herein, we conducted a nationwide multicenter real-world study of ICH in adult ITP patients. According to data from 27 centers in China from 2005 to 2020, the mortality rate from ICH was 33.80% (48/142) in ITP adults. We identified risk factors by logistic univariate and multivariate logistic regression for 30-day mortality in a training cohort of 107 patients as follows: intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH), platelet count ≤10 × 109/L at ICH, a combination of serious infections, grade of preceding bleeding events, and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) level on admission. Accordingly, a prognostic model of 30-day mortality was developed based on the regression equation. Then, we evaluated the performance of the prognostic model through a bootstrap procedure for internal validation. Furthermore, an external validation with data from a test cohort with 35 patients from 11 other centers was conducted. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the internal and external validation were 0.954 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.910-0.998) and 0.942 (95% CI, 0.871-1.014), respectively. Both calibration plots illustrated a high degree of consistency in the estimated and observed risk. In addition, the decision curve analysis showed a considerable net benefit for patients. Thus, an application (47.94.162.105:8080/ich/) was established for users to predict 30-day mortality when ICH occurred in adult patients with ITP.

SUBMITTER: Chong S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9327537 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing and validating a mortality prediction model for ICH in ITP: a nationwide representative multicenter study.

Chong Shan S Zhao Peng P Huang Rui-Bin RB Zhou Hu H Zhang Jia-Ning JN Hou Ming M Liu Yi Y Yao Hong-Xia HX Niu Ting T Peng Jun J Jiang Ming M Han Yan-Qiu YQ Hu Jian-Da JD Zhou Ze-Ping ZP Qiu Lin L Zhang Lian-Sheng LS Wang Xin X Wang Hua-Quan HQ Feng Ru R Yang Lin-Hua LH Ma Liang-Ming LM Wang Shun-Qing SQ Kong Pei-Yan PY Wang Wen-Sheng WS Sun Hui-Ping HP Sun Jing J Zhou He-Bing HB Zhu Tie-Nan TN Wang Li-Ru LR Zhang Jing-Yu JY Huang Qiu-Sha QS Fu Hai-Xia HX Wu Ye-Jun YJ Li Yue-Ying YY Wang Qian-Fei QF Jiang Qian Q Jiang Hao H Lu Jin J Huang Xiao-Jun XJ Zhang Xiao-Hui XH

Blood advances 20220701 14

Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare and life-threatening hemorrhagic event in patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). However, its mortality and related risk factors remain unclear. Herein, we conducted a nationwide multicenter real-world study of ICH in adult ITP patients. According to data from 27 centers in China from 2005 to 2020, the mortality rate from ICH was 33.80% (48/142) in ITP adults. We identified risk factors by logistic univariate and multivariate logistic regression for ...[more]

PMID: 35679462

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Developing and validating a mortality prediction model for ICH in ITP: a nationwide representative multicenter study.

Publications

Developing and validating a mortality prediction model for ICH in ITP: a nationwide representative multicenter study.

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