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Assessing agreement between different polygenic risk scores in the UK Biobank.

ABSTRACT: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are proposed for use in clinical and research settings for risk stratification. However, there are limited investigations on how different PRS diverge from each other in risk prediction of individuals. We compared two recently published PRS for each of three conditions, breast cancer, hypertension and dementia, to assess the stability of using these algorithms for risk prediction in a single large population. We used imputed genotyping data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort, limited to the White British subset. We found that: (1) 20% or more of SNPs in the first PRS were not represented in the more recent PRS for all three diseases, by the same SNP or a surrogate with R² > 0.8 by linkage disequilibrium (LD). (2) Although the difference in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) obtained using the two PRS is hardly appreciable for all three diseases, there were large differences in individual risk prediction between the two PRS. For instance, for each disease, of those classified in the top 5% of risk by the first PRS, over 60% were not so classified by the second PRS. We found substantial discordance between different PRS for the same disease, indicating that individuals could receive different medical advice depending on which PRS is used to assess their genetic susceptibility. It is desirable to resolve this uncertainty before using PRS for risk stratification in clinical settings.

SUBMITTER: Clifton L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9329440 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSchizophrenia is a heritable psychiatric disorder with a polygenic architecture. Genome-wide association studies have reported that an increasing number of risk-associated variants and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) explain 17% of the variance in the disorder. Substantial heterogeneity exists in the effect of these variants, and aggregating them based on biologically relevant functions may provide mechanistic insight into the disorder.MethodsUsing the largest schizophrenia genome-wide association study conducted to date, we associated PRSs based on 5 gene sets previously found to contribute to schizophrenia pathophysiology-postsynaptic density of excitatory synapses, postsynaptic membrane, dendritic spine, axon, and histone H3-K4 methylation-along with respective whole-genome PRSs, with neuroimaging (n > 29,000) and reported psychotic-like experiences (n > 119,000) variables in healthy UK Biobank subjects.ResultsSeveral variables were significantly associated with the axon gene-set (psychotic-like communications, parahippocampal gyrus volume, fractional anisotropy thalamic radiations, and fractional anisotropy posterior thalamic radiations (β range -0.016 to 0.0916, false discovery rate-corrected p [pFDR] ≤ .05), postsynaptic density gene-set (psychotic-like experiences distress, global surface area, and cingulate lobe surface area [β range -0.014 to 0.0588, pFDR ≤ .05]), and histone gene set (entorhinal surface area: β = -0.016, pFDR = .035). From these, whole-genome PRSs were significantly associated with psychotic-like communications (β = 0.2218, pFDR = 1.34 × 10-7), distress (β = 0.1943, pFDR = 7.28 × 10-16), and fractional anisotropy thalamic radiations (β = -0.0143, pFDR = .036). Permutation analysis revealed that these associations were not due to chance.ConclusionsOur results indicate that genetic variation in 3 gene sets relevant to schizophrenia may confer risk for the disorder through effects on previously implicated neuroimaging variables. Because associations were stronger overall for whole-genome PRSs, findings here highlight that selection of biologically relevant variants is not yet sufficient to address the heterogeneity of the disorder.

Project description:Background and objectivesAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) causes profound impairments in neurological function and a cure for this devastating disease remains elusive. Early detection and risk stratification are crucial for timely intervention and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify predisposing genetic, phenotypic, and exposure-related factors for Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using multi-modal data and assess their joint predictive potential.MethodsUtilizing data from the UK Biobank, we analyzed an unrelated set of 292 ALS cases and 408,831 controls of European descent. Two polygenic risk scores (PRS) are constructed: "GWAS Hits PRS" and "PRS-CS," reflecting oligogenic and polygenic ALS risk profiles, respectively. Time-restricted phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were performed to identify pre-existing conditions increasing ALS risk, integrated into phenotypic risk scores (PheRS). A poly-exposure score ("PXS") captures the influence of environmental exposures measured through survey questionnaires. We evaluate the performance of these scores for predicting ALS incidence and stratifying risk, adjusting for baseline demographic covariates.ResultsBoth PRSs modestly predicted ALS diagnosis, but with increased predictive power when combined (covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic [AAUC] = 0.584 [0.525, 0.639]). PheRS incorporated diagnoses 1 year before ALS onset (PheRS1) modestly discriminated cases from controls (AAUC = 0.515 [0.472, 0.564]). The "PXS" did not significantly predict ALS. However, a model incorporating PRSs and PheRS1 improved prediction of ALS (AAUC = 0.604 [0.547, 0.667]), outperforming a model combining all risk scores. This combined risk score identified the top 10% of risk score distribution with a 4-fold higher ALS risk (95% CI: [2.04, 7.73]) versus those in the 40%-60% range.DiscussionsBy leveraging UK Biobank data, our study uncovers predisposing ALS factors, highlighting the improved effectiveness of multi-factorial prediction models to identify individuals at highest risk for ALS.

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Assessing agreement between different polygenic risk scores in the UK Biobank.

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