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Modelling pandemic behaviour using an economic multiplayer game.


ABSTRACT: During a pandemic, isolating oneself from the community limits viral transmission and helps avoid repeated societal lockdowns. This entails a social dilemma-either distance oneself from others for the benefit of the public good or free-ride and enjoy the benefits of freedom. It is not yet understood how the unfamiliar incentive structure and interpersonal context presented by a pandemic together modulate individuals' approach to this social dilemma. In this preregistered study, we take a game-theoretical approach and investigate people's decisions to self-isolate, using a novel iterated multiplayer game designed to capture the decision-making environment in the pandemic. To elucidate players' thinking, we use a variation of the strategy method and elicit beliefs about how much others will self-isolate. Players tend to respond to social norms with abidance, rather than transgression; they resist the temptation to freeride when others are self-isolating. However, they deal with exponential growth poorly, as they only self-isolate sufficiently when lockdowns are imminent. Further, increased collective risk can motivate more self-isolation, even though the link between self-isolation and lockdowns is stochastic. Players underreport the influence of others' choices on their own, and underestimate others' self-isolation. We discuss implications for public health, and communication to the public.

SUBMITTER: van Baal ST 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9355951 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling pandemic behaviour using an economic multiplayer game.

van Baal Simon T ST   Walasek Lukasz L   Hohwy Jakob J  

Scientific reports 20220805 1


During a pandemic, isolating oneself from the community limits viral transmission and helps avoid repeated societal lockdowns. This entails a social dilemma-either distance oneself from others for the benefit of the public good or free-ride and enjoy the benefits of freedom. It is not yet understood how the unfamiliar incentive structure and interpersonal context presented by a pandemic together modulate individuals' approach to this social dilemma. In this preregistered study, we take a game-th  ...[more]

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