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A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis and Tailoring Local Therapy Decision for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ after Breast Conserving Surgery.

ABSTRACT: Purpose: We sought to explore the role of nomogram-combined biomarkers, mammographic microcalcification and inflammatory hematologic markers in guiding local therapy decisions in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) subgroups with different ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) risk. Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2018, consecutive patients with DCIS and breast conserving surgery (BCS) were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 181) and internally validation cohort (n = 78). Multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of IBTR. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. The time-to-event curves were calculated by the Kaplan−Meier methods and compared by the log-rank test. Results: In total, 259 patients were enrolled and 182 of them received whole breast irradiation (WBI). After a median follow-up of 51.02 months, 23 IBTR events occurred in the whole cohort. By multivariate analyses of training cohort, presence of microinvasion, Ki67 index >14%, mammographic-clustered fine linear microcalcifications and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio before BCS (preop-NLR), >1.1 remained independent risk factors of IBTR to develop a nomogram. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.87 and 0.86 in the training and internal validation set, respectively. Calibration plots illustrated good agreement between the predictions and actual observations for 5-year IBTR. Cut-off values of nomogram point were identified as 53 and 115 points, which divided all patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups. Significant differences in IBTR existed between low-, intermediate- and high-risk subgroups (p < 0.01). For the whole cohort and ER-positive tumours, the benefit of WBI was found only in the intermediate-risk subgroup, but not in those with low or high risk. Fourteen out of 23 IBTRs occurred outside the original quadrant and all occurred in the high-risk group. Conclusions: The novel nomogram demonstrated potential to separate the risk of IBTR and locations of IBTR. For the whole cohort and ER-positive tumours, the benefit of WBI was restricted to an intermediate-risk subgroup.

SUBMITTER: Xu F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9456583 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis and Tailoring Local Therapy Decision for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ after Breast Conserving Surgery.

Xu Feifei F Cao Lu L Xu Cheng C Cai Gang G Cai Rong R Qi Weixiang W Wang Shubei S Shen Kunwei K Chai Weimin W Chen Jiayi J

Journal of clinical medicine 20220901 17

Purpose: We sought to explore the role of nomogram-combined biomarkers, mammographic microcalcification and inflammatory hematologic markers in guiding local therapy decisions in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) subgroups with different ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) risk. Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2018, consecutive patients with DCIS and breast conserving surgery (BCS) were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 181) and internally validation cohor ...[more]

PMID: 36079116

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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram that integrates clinical-pathologic and imaging variables to predict ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS).Materials and methodsThis retrospective study included consecutive women with DCIS who underwent BCS at two hospitals. Patients who underwent BCS between 2003 and 2016 in one hospital and between 2005 and 2013 in another were classified into development and validation cohorts, respectively. Twelve clinical-pathologic variables (age, family history, initial presentation, nuclear grade, necrosis, margin width, number of excisions, DCIS size, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy) and six mammography and ultrasound variables (breast density, detection modality, mammography and ultrasound patterns, morphology and distribution of calcifications) were analyzed. A nomogram for predicting 10-year IBTR probabilities was constructed using the variables associated with IBTR identified from the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis in the development cohort. The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated in the external validation cohort using a calibration plot and 10-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram.ResultsThe development cohort included 702 women (median age [interquartile range], 50 [44-56] years), of whom 30 (4%) women experienced IBTR. The validation cohort included 182 women (48 [43-54] years), 18 (10%) of whom developed IBTR. A nomogram was constructed using three clinical-pathologic variables (age, margin, and use of adjuvant radiation therapy) and two mammographic variables (breast density and calcification morphology). The nomogram was appropriately calibrated and demonstrated a comparable 10-year AUROC to the MSKCC nomogram (0.73 vs. 0.66, P = 0.534) in the validation cohort.ConclusionOur nomogram provided individualized risk estimates for women with DCIS treated with BCS, demonstrating a discriminative ability comparable to that of the MSKCC nomogram.

Dataset Information

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis and Tailoring Local Therapy Decision for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ after Breast Conserving Surgery.

Publications

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis and Tailoring Local Therapy Decision for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ after Breast Conserving Surgery.

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