Dataset Information

Construction of Brain Metastasis Prediction Model and Optimization of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Selection for Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI), as an essential part of the treatment of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC), inevitably leads to neurotoxicity. This study aimed to construct a brain metastasis prediction model and identify low-risk patients to avoid PCI; 236 patients with LS-SCLC were retrospectively analyzed and divided into PCI (63 cases) and non-PCI groups (173 cases). The nomogram was developed based on variables determined by univariate and multivariate analyses in the non-PCI group. According to the cutoff nomogram score, all patients were divided into high- and low-risk cohorts. A log-rank test was used to compare the incidence of brain metastasis between patients with and without PCI in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. The nomogram included five variables: chemotherapy cycles (ChT cycles), time to radiotherapy (RT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), pro-gastrin-releasing peptide precursor (ProGRP), and lymphocytes-monocytes ratio (LMR). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.763 and 0.782 at 1 year, and 0.759 and 0.732 at 2 years in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Based on the nomogram, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups with a cutoff value of 165. In the high-risk cohort, the incidence of brain metastasis in the non-PCI group was significantly higher than in the PCI group (p < 0.001), but there was no difference in the low-risk cohort (p = 0.160). Propensity score-matching (PSM) analysis showed similar results; the proposed nomogram showed reliable performance in assessing the individualized brain metastasis risk and has the potential to become a clinical tool to individualize PCI treatment for LS-SCLC.

SUBMITTER: Hou Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9563012 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Construction of Brain Metastasis Prediction Model and Optimization of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Selection for Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Hou Qing Q Sun Bochen B Yao Ningning N Liang Yu Y Cao Xin X Wei Lijuan L Cao Jianzhong J

Cancers 20221007 19

Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI), as an essential part of the treatment of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC), inevitably leads to neurotoxicity. This study aimed to construct a brain metastasis prediction model and identify low-risk patients to avoid PCI; 236 patients with LS-SCLC were retrospectively analyzed and divided into PCI (63 cases) and non-PCI groups (173 cases). The nomogram was developed based on variables determined by univariate and multivariate analyses in the n ...[more]

PMID: 36230830

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Project description:BackgroundThe recommendation of PCI for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) is primarily based on evidence from the pre-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) era. However, as MRI accuracy improves and stereotactic radiosurgery advances, the role of PCI for LS-SCLC has become uncertain. This study aims to compare the contemporary survival outcomes of patients with LS-SCLC treated with PCI versus active surveillance.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study in which 1068 patients with LS-SCLC who achieved a good response to first-line chemoradiotherapy were consecutively enrolled from 5 tertiary medical centres between June 2009 and June 2019. Of these patients, 440 received PCI, while 628 received surveillance without PCI. Propensity score matching with a 1:1 ratio was performed to balance the baseline characteristics of the two cohorts. The endpoints were overall survival (OS) and the incidence of brain metastasis (BM).ResultsIn total, 648 patients were matched. The baseline characteristics were generally well balanced. At a median follow-up of 64.5 months (range 2-190), patients who underwent PCI had a significantly lower risk for BM than those who underwent surveillance. The 3-year cumulative incidence rate of BM was 28.2% (95% CI 22.5-33.8%) in the PCI cohort and 38.5% (32.6-44.5%) in the surveillance cohort (Gray's p = 0.002). However, the lower incidence of BM in the PCI cohort did not translate into a significant extension of OS. The median OS was 35.8 months (95% CI 27.6-44.0 months) in the PCI cohort versus 32 months (26.4-37.6 months) in the surveillance cohort (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74-1.10, p = 0.29). Multivariable analysis showed that disease stage, chemoradiotherapy sequence, and response to chemoradiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for BM or OS.ConclusionsOverall, PCI reduces the risk for BM but does not substantially prolong OS compared with active surveillance. A phase 3, prospective clinical trial (NCT04829708) we initiated is currently underway, which is expected to corroborate our results.

Dataset Information

Construction of Brain Metastasis Prediction Model and Optimization of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Selection for Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Publications

Construction of Brain Metastasis Prediction Model and Optimization of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Selection for Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

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