Dataset Information

Machine learning to predict abnormal myocardial perfusion from pre-test features.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Accurately predicting which patients will have abnormal perfusion on MPI based on pre-test clinical information may help physicians make test selection decisions. We developed and validated a machine learning (ML) model for predicting abnormal perfusion using pre-test features.

Methods

We included consecutive patients who underwent SPECT MPI, with 20,418 patients from a multi-center (5 sites) international registry in the training population and 9019 patients (from 2 separate sites) in the external testing population. The ML (extreme gradient boosting) model utilized 30 pre-test features to predict the presence of abnormal myocardial perfusion by expert visual interpretation.

Results

In external testing, the ML model had higher prediction performance for abnormal perfusion (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.762, 95% CI 0.750-0.774) compared to the clinical CAD consortium (AUC 0.689) basic CAD consortium (AUC 0.657), and updated Diamond-Forrester models (AUC 0.658, p < 0.001 for all). Calibration (validation of the continuous risk prediction) was superior for the ML model (Brier score 0.149) compared to the other models (Brier score 0.165 to 0.198, all p < 0.001).

Conclusion

ML can predict abnormal myocardial perfusion using readily available pre-test information. This model could be used to help guide physician decisions regarding non-invasive test selection.

SUBMITTER: Miller RJH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9588501 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Machine learning to predict abnormal myocardial perfusion from pre-test features.

Miller Robert J H RJH Hauser M Timothy MT Sharir Tali T Einstein Andrew J AJ Fish Mathews B MB Ruddy Terrence D TD Kaufmann Philipp A PA Sinusas Albert J AJ Miller Edward J EJ Bateman Timothy M TM Dorbala Sharmila S Di Carli Marcelo M Huang Cathleen C Liang Joanna X JX Han Donghee D Dey Damini D Berman Daniel S DS Slomka Piotr J PJ

Journal of nuclear cardiology : official publication of the American Society of Nuclear Cardiology 20220607 5

<h4>Background</h4>Accurately predicting which patients will have abnormal perfusion on MPI based on pre-test clinical information may help physicians make test selection decisions. We developed and validated a machine learning (ML) model for predicting abnormal perfusion using pre-test features.<h4>Methods</h4>We included consecutive patients who underwent SPECT MPI, with 20,418 patients from a multi-center (5 sites) international registry in the training population and 9019 patients (from 2 se ...[more]

PMID: 35672567

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Project description:ImportanceAccurate prediction of adverse outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can guide the triage of care services and shared decision-making, and novel methods hold promise for using existing data to generate additional insights.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether contemporary machine learning methods can facilitate risk prediction by including a larger number of variables and identifying complex relationships between predictors and outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used the American College of Cardiology Chest Pain-MI Registry to identify all AMI hospitalizations between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016. Data analysis was performed from February 1, 2018, to October 22, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThree machine learning models were developed and validated to predict in-hospital mortality based on patient comorbidities, medical history, presentation characteristics, and initial laboratory values. Models were developed based on extreme gradient descent boosting (XGBoost, an interpretable model), a neural network, and a meta-classifier model. Their accuracy was compared against the current standard developed using a logistic regression model in a validation sample.ResultsA total of 755 402 patients (mean [SD] age, 65 [13] years; 495 202 [65.5%] male) were identified during the study period. In independent validation, 2 machine learning models, gradient descent boosting and meta-classifier (combination including inputs from gradient descent boosting and a neural network), marginally improved discrimination compared with logistic regression (C statistic, 0.90 for best performing machine learning model vs 0.89 for logistic regression). Nearly perfect calibration in independent validation data was found in the XGBoost (slope of predicted to observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04) and the meta-classifier model (slope of predicted-to-observed events, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.02), with more precise classification across the risk spectrum. The XGBoost model reclassified 32 393 of 121 839 individuals (27%) and the meta-classifier model reclassified 30 836 of 121 839 individuals (25%) deemed at moderate to high risk for death in logistic regression as low risk, which were more consistent with the observed event rates.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study using a large national registry, none of the tested machine learning models were associated with substantive improvement in the discrimination of in-hospital mortality after AMI, limiting their clinical utility. However, compared with logistic regression, XGBoost and meta-classifier models, but not the neural network, offered improved resolution of risk for high-risk individuals.

Project description:Precise definition of the mitral valve plane (VP) during segmentation of the left ventricle for SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) quantification often requires manual adjustment, which affects the quantification of perfusion. We developed a machine learning approach using support vector machines (SVM) for automatic VP placement. Methods: A total of 392 consecutive patients undergoing 99mTc-tetrofosmin stress (5 min; mean ± SD, 350 ± 54 MBq) and rest (5 min; 1,024 ± 153 MBq) fast SPECT MPI attenuation corrected (AC) by CT and same-day coronary CT angiography were studied; included in the 392 patients were 48 patients who underwent invasive coronary angiography and had no known coronary artery disease. The left ventricle was segmented with standard clinical software (quantitative perfusion SPECT) by 2 experts, adjusting the VP if needed. Two-class SVM models were computed from the expert placements with 10-fold cross validation to separate the patients used for training and those used for validation. SVM probability estimates were used to compute the best VP position. Automatic VP localizations on AC and non-AC images were compared with expert placement on coronary CT angiography. Stress and rest total perfusion deficits and detection of per-vessel obstructive stenosis by invasive coronary angiography were also compared. Results: Bland-Altman 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for VP localization by SVM and experts for AC stress images (bias, 1; 95% CI, -5 to 7 mm) and AC rest images (bias, 1; 95% CI, -7 to 10 mm) were narrower than interexpert 95% CIs for AC stress images (bias, 0; 95% CI, -8 to 8 mm) and AC rest images (bias, 0; 95% CI, -10 to 10 mm) (P < 0.01). Bland-Altman 95% CIs for VP localization by SVM and experts for non-AC stress images (bias, 1; 95% CI, -4 to 6 mm) and non-AC rest images (bias, 2; 95% CI, -7 to 10 mm) were similar to interexpert 95% CIs for non-AC stress images (bias, 0; 95% CI, -6 to 5 mm) and non-AC rest images (bias, -1; 95% CI, -9 to 7 mm) (P was not significant [NS]). For regional detection of obstructive stenosis, ischemic total perfusion deficit areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 2 experts (AUC, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.7-0.87]; AUC, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.73-0.89]) and the SVM (0.82 [0.74-0.9]) for AC data were the same (P = NS) and were higher than those for the unadjusted VP (0.63 [0.53-0.73]) (P < 0.01). Similarly, for non-AC data, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the experts (AUC, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.69-0.89]; AUC, 0.8 [95% CI, 0.72-0.88]) and the SVM (0.79 [0.71-0.87]) were the same (P = NS) and were higher than those for the unadjusted VP (0.65 [0.56-0.75]) (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Machine learning with SVM allows automatic and accurate VP localization, decreasing user dependence in SPECT MPI quantification.

Dataset Information

Machine learning to predict abnormal myocardial perfusion from pre-test features.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Machine learning to predict abnormal myocardial perfusion from pre-test features.

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