Dataset Information

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning in a Large Japanese Cohort.

ABSTRACT: Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening entails precise event prediction to orient risk stratification, resource allocation, and insurance policy. We used random survival forests (RSF) to identify markers of incident CVD among Japanese adults enrolled in an employer-mandated screening program. Methods and Results: We examined biomarker, health history, medication use, and lifestyle data from 155,108 adults aged ≥40 years. The occurrence of coronary artery disease (CAD) or atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) events was examined over 6 years of follow-up. The analysis used RSF to identify predictors, then investigated simplified RSF models with fewer predictors for individual-level risk prediction. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) datasets. At baseline, the median patient age was 47 years (interquartile range 41-56 years), with 65% males. In all, 1,642 CAD and 2,164 ASCVD events were observed. RSF identified history of heart disease, age, self-reported blood pressure medication, HbA1c, fasting blood sugar, and high-density lipoprotein as important markers of both endpoints. RSF analyses with only the top 20 predictors demonstrated good performance, with areas under the curve of >84% for CAD and >82% for ASCVD in test data across 6 years. Conclusions: We present a machine learning technique for accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk using employer-mandated annual health checkup information. The algorithm produces individual-level risk curves over time, empowering clinicians to efficiently implement prevention strategies in a low-risk population.

SUBMITTER: Matheson MB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9726526 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning in a Large Japanese Cohort.

Matheson Matthew B MB Kato Yoko Y Baba Shinichi S Cox Christopher C Lima João A C JAC Ambale-Venkatesh Bharath B

Circulation reports 20221111 12

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening entails precise event prediction to orient risk stratification, resource allocation, and insurance policy. We used random survival forests (RSF) to identify markers of incident CVD among Japanese adults enrolled in an employer-mandated screening program. Methods and Results: We examined biomarker, health history, medication use, and lifestyle data from 155,108 adults aged ≥40 years. The occurrence of coronary artery d ...[more]

PMID: 36530840

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Project description:BackgroundOsteoporosis develops in the elderly due to decreased bone mineral density (BMD), potentially increasing bone fracture risk. However, the BMD is not regularly measured in a clinical setting. This study aimed to develop a good prediction model for the osteoporosis risk using a machine learning (ML) approach in adults over 40 years in the Ansan/Anseong cohort and the association of predicted osteoporosis risk with a fracture in the Health Examinees (HEXA) cohort.MethodsThe 109 demographic, anthropometric, biochemical, genetic, nutrient, and lifestyle variables of 8,842 participants were manually selected in an Ansan/Anseong cohort and included in the ML algorithm. The polygenic risk score (PRS) of osteoporosis was generated with a genome-wide association study and added for the genetic impact of osteoporosis. Osteoporosis was defined with < -2.5 T scores of the tibia or radius compared to people in their 20s-30s. They were divided randomly into the training (n = 7,074) and test (n = 1,768) sets-Pearson's correlation between the predicted osteoporosis risk and fracture in the HEXA cohort.ResultsXGBoost, deep neural network, and random forest generated the prediction model with a high area under the curve (AUC, 0.86) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) with 10, 15, and 20 features; the prediction model by XGBoost had the highest AUC of ROC, high accuracy and k-fold values (> 0.85) in 15 features among seven ML approaches. The model included the genetic factor, genders, number of children and breastfed children, age, residence area, education, seasons to measure, height, smoking status, hormone replacement therapy, serum albumin, hip circumferences, vitamin B6 intake, and body weight. The prediction models for women alone were similar to those for both genders, with lower accuracy. When the prediction model was applied to the HEXA study, the correlation between the fracture incidence and predicted osteoporosis risk was significant but weak (r = 0.173, P < 0.001).ConclusionThe prediction model for osteoporosis risk generated by XGBoost can be applied to estimate osteoporosis risk. The biomarkers can be considered for enhancing the prevention, detection, and early therapy of osteoporosis risk in Asians.

Dataset Information

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning in a Large Japanese Cohort.

Publications

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning in a Large Japanese Cohort.

Similar Datasets

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