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Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.


ABSTRACT: Saharan dust intrusions strongly impact Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions. Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2-5 days. Here we show that on timescales of weeks to months, North African dust emission and transport are impacted by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which establish a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like surface signal. Chemical transport models show a large-scale dipolar dust response to SSWs, with the burden in the Eastern Mediterranean enhanced up to 30% and a corresponding reduction in West Africa. Observations of inhalable particulate (PM10) concentrations and aerosol optical depth confirm this dipole. On average, a single SSW causes 680-2460 additional premature deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean and prevents 1180-2040 premature deaths in West Africa from exposure to dust-source fine particulate (PM2.5). Currently, SSWs are predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. Altogether, the stratosphere represents an important source of subseasonal predictability for air quality over West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.

SUBMITTER: Dai Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9750965 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Dai Ying Y   Hitchcock Peter P   Mahowald Natalie M NM   Domeisen Daniela I V DIV   Hamilton Douglas S DS   Li Longlei L   Marticorena Beatrice B   Kanakidou Maria M   Mihalopoulos Nikolaos N   Aboagye-Okyere Adwoa A  

Nature communications 20221214 1


Saharan dust intrusions strongly impact Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions. Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2-5 days. Here we show that on timescales of weeks to months, North African dust emission and transport are impacted by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which establish a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like surface signal. Chemical transport models show a large-scale dipolar dust response to SSWs, with the burden in the Eastern Mediterranean enhanced up  ...[more]

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