Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting prognosis of patients with metastatic melanoma after immunotherapy: A Chinese population-based analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Previous studies indicated the evidence that baseline levels of thyroid antibodies, thyroid status, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and M stage may influence the prognosis of patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors that targets programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) or programmed death ligand 1, which reported that dramatic improvements in survival rates were observed; however, the presence of controversy has prevented consensus from being reached. Study objectives were to develop a nomogram to identify several prognostic factors in Chinese patients with metastatic melanoma receiving immunotherapy.

Methods

This retrospective study included 231 patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, and patients were split into internal cohort (n = 165) and external validation cohort (n = 66). We developed a nomogram for the prediction of response and prognosis on the basis of the levels of serum thyroid peroxidase antibody (A-TPO), free T3 (FT3), and LDH and M stage that were measured at the baseline of anti-PD-1 infusion. In addition, the follow-up lasted at least until 5 years after the treatment or mortality. RECIST v1.1 was used to classify treatment responses.

Results

Chi-square test showed that PD-1 antibody was more effective in patients with melanoma with high level baseline FT4 or earlier M stage. A multivariate Cox analysis showed that baseline FT3 (P = 0.009), baseline A-TPO (P = 0.016), and LDH (P = 0.013) levels and M stage (P < 0.001) independently predicted overall survival (OS) in patients with melanoma. The above factors are integrated, and a prediction model is established, i.e., nomogram. Survival probability area-under-the-curve values of 1, 2, and 3 years in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts showed the prognostic accuracy and clinical applicability of nomogram (training: 0.714, 0.757, and 0.764; internal validation: 0.7171963, 0.756549, and 0.7651486; external validation: 0.748, 0.710, and 0.856). In addition, the OS of low-risk (total score ≤ 142.65) versus high-risk (total score > 142.65) patients varied significantly in both training group (P < 0.0001) and external validation cohort (P = 0.0012).

Conclusions

According to this study, baseline biomarkers are associated with response to immunotherapy and prognosis among patients with metastatic melanoma. Treatment regimens can be tailor-made on the basis of these biomarkers.

SUBMITTER: Zhao J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9815596 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomogram for predicting prognosis of patients with metastatic melanoma after immunotherapy: A Chinese population-based analysis.

Zhao Jingjing J Li Dandan D Xie Songzuo S Deng Xinpei X Wen Xizhi X Li Jingjing J Wu Zhengrong Z Yang Xinyi X Li Minxing M Tang Yan Y Zhang Xiaoshi X Ding Ya Y

Frontiers in immunology 20221222

<h4>Background</h4>Previous studies indicated the evidence that baseline levels of thyroid antibodies, thyroid status, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and M stage may influence the prognosis of patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors that targets programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) or programmed death ligand 1, which reported that dramatic improvements in survival rates were observed; however, the presence of controversy has prevented consensus fr ...[more]

PMID: 36618343

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Project description:Purpose: This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict overall survival in lung squamous cell carcinoma patients with metastasis for clinical decision-making. Methods: We investigated lung squamous cell carcinoma patients diagnosed with stage M1 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results database between 2010 and 2015. They were divided into training cohort and validation cohort. In the training cohort, statistically significant prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, and an individualized nomogram model was developed. The model was evaluated by C-index, area under the curve, calibration plot, decision curve analysis, and risk group stratification. Results: In total, 9910 patients were included in our study, including 6937 in the training cohort and 2937 in the validation cohort. Factors containing age, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival and were used in the construction of the nomogram. The C-index in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.711 (95% confidenc interval: 0.705-0.717) and 0.707 (95% confidenc interval: 0.697-0.717), respectively. The time-dependent area under the curve of both groups was higher than 0.7 within 5 years. Calibration plots indicated that the nomogram-predicted survival was consistent with the recorded 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year prognoses. Furthermore, decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful and had a better discriminative ability to recognize patients at high risk than the TNM criteria-based tumor staging. And then we developed an overall survival risk classification system based on the nomogram total points for each patient, which divided all patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group. Finally, we implemented this nomogram in a free online tool. Conclusion: We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the overall survival of lung squamous cell carcinoma patients with metastasis. These tools can assist in patients' counseling and guide treatment decision-making.

Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting prognosis of patients with metastatic melanoma after immunotherapy: A Chinese population-based analysis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nomogram for predicting prognosis of patients with metastatic melanoma after immunotherapy: A Chinese population-based analysis.

Similar Datasets

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