Dataset Information

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Identifying optimal COVID-19 policies is challenging. For Victoria, Australia (6.6 million people), we evaluated 104 policy packages (two levels of stringency of public health and social measures [PHSMs], by two levels each of mask-wearing and respirator provision during large outbreaks, by 13 vaccination schedules) for nine future SARS-CoV-2 variant scenarios.

Methods

We used an agent-based model to estimate morbidity, mortality, and costs over 12 months from October 2022 for each scenario. The 104 policies (each averaged over the nine future variant scenarios) were ranked based on four evenly weighted criteria: cost-effectiveness from (a) health system only and (b) health system plus GDP perspectives, (c) deaths and (d) days exceeding hospital occupancy thresholds.

Findings

More compared to less stringent PHSMs reduced cumulative infections, hospitalisations and deaths but also increased time in stage ≥3 PHSMs. Any further vaccination from October 2022 decreased hospitalisations and deaths by 12% and 27% respectively compared to no further vaccination and was usually a cost-saving intervention from a health expenditure plus GDP perspective. High versus low vaccine coverage decreased deaths by 15% and reduced time in stage ≥3 PHSMs by 20%. The modelled mask policies had modest impacts on morbidity, mortality, and health system pressure. The highest-ranking policy combination was more stringent PHSMs, two further vaccine doses (an Omicron-targeted vaccine followed by a multivalent vaccine) for ≥30-year-olds with high uptake, and promotion of increased mask wearing (but not Government provision of respirators).

Interpretation

Ongoing vaccination and PHSMs continue to be key components of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Integrated epidemiologic and economic modelling, as exemplified in this paper, can be rapidly updated and used in pandemic decision making.

Funding

Anonymous donation, University of Melbourne funding.

SUBMITTER: Szanyi J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9851841 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia.

Szanyi Joshua J Wilson Tim T Howe Samantha S Zeng Jessie J Andrabi Hassan H Rossiter Shania S Blakely Tony T

The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific 20230120

<h4>Background</h4>Identifying optimal COVID-19 policies is challenging. For Victoria, Australia (6.6 million people), we evaluated 104 policy packages (two levels of stringency of public health and social measures [PHSMs], by two levels each of mask-wearing and respirator provision during large outbreaks, by 13 vaccination schedules) for nine future SARS-CoV-2 variant scenarios.<h4>Methods</h4>We used an agent-based model to estimate morbidity, mortality, and costs over 12 months from October 2 ...[more]

PMID: 36694478

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Project description:Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an adverse event of special interest (AESI) for surveillance systems monitoring adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with COVID-19 vaccines. Emerging data support a temporal association between GBS and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines. We present a case series of GBS reports submitted between February and November 2021 to our enhanced spontaneous surveillance system (SAEFVIC) in Victoria, Australia, following vaccination with either the adenovirus-vector vaccine Vaxzevria ChadOx1-S (AstraZeneca) or an mRNA vaccine (Comirnaty BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] or Spikevax mRNA-1273 [Moderna]). For each report, Brighton Collaboration case definitions were used to describe diagnostic certainty. Severity was graded using the GBS Disability Score. The observed incidence of GBS following immunisation against COVID-19 was compared to expected background ICD10-AM G61.0 coded hospitalisations. There were 41 total cases of GBS reported to SAEFVIC following Vaxzevria (n = 38), Comirnaty (n = 3), or Spikevax (n = 0) vaccines. The observed GBS incidence rate exceeded the expected background rate for Vaxzevria only, with 1.85 reports per 100,000 doses following dose 1, higher than the expected rate of 0.39 hospital admissions per 100,000 adults within 42 days of vaccination. Of 38 GBS reports following Vaxzevria, the median age at vaccination was 66 years and median onset of symptoms was 14 days following immunisation. There was one death. Four cases initially categorised as GBS were later reclassified as acute-onset chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy. Fatigue was the predominant persisting symptom reported at follow up. Additional global studies are required to characterise risk factors, clinical variability, and to provide precision and generalizability regarding AEFI risks such as GBS associated with different vaccine platforms, which will help inform communication of the potential benefits and risks of COVID19 vaccination.

Dataset Information

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia.

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