Estimation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in type 2 diabetes.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cai X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9943829 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in type 2 diabetes.
Cai Xiaoling X Lin Chu C Ji Linong L
Chinese medical journal 20221105 21
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Project description:AimsThe 10-year risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in patients with established ASCVD can be estimated with the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) risk score, and may help refine clinical management. To broaden generalizability across regions, we updated the existing tool (SMART2 risk score) and recalibrated it with regional incidence rates and assessed its performance in external populations.Methods and resultsIndividuals with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, or abdominal aortic aneurysms were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-SMART cohort [n = 8355; 1706 ASCVD events during a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range 4.2-12.5)] to derive a 10-year risk prediction model for recurrent ASCVD events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular mortality) using a Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted model. The model was recalibrated to four regions across Europe, and to Asia (excluding Japan), Japan, Australia, North America, and Latin America using contemporary cohort data from each target region. External validation used data from seven cohorts [Clinical Practice Research Datalink, SWEDEHEART, the international REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry, Estonian Biobank, Spanish Biomarkers in Acute Coronary Syndrome and Biomarkers in Acute Myocardial Infarction (BACS/BAMI), the Norwegian COgnitive Impairment After STroke, and Bialystok PLUS/Polaspire] and included 369 044 individuals with established ASCVD of whom 62 807 experienced an ASCVD event. C-statistics ranged from 0.605 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.547-0.664] in BACS/BAMI to 0.772 (95% CI 0.659-0.886) in REACH Europe high-risk region. The clinical utility of the model was demonstrated across a range of clinically relevant treatment thresholds for intensified treatment options.ConclusionThe SMART2 risk score provides an updated, validated tool for the prediction of recurrent ASCVD events in patients with established ASCVD across European and non-European populations. The use of this tool could allow for a more personalized approach to secondary prevention based upon quantitative rather than qualitative estimates of residual risk.
| S-EPMC9312860 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Current guidelines recommend statin therapy for millions of US residents for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). It is unclear whether traditional prediction models that do not account for current widespread statin use are sufficient for risk assessment. Objectives:To examine the performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) for 5-year ASCVD risk estimation in a contemporary cohort and to test the hypothesis that inclusion of statin therapy improves model performance. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cohort study included adult patients in the Veterans Affairs health care system without baseline ASCVD. Using national electronic health record data, 3 Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate 5-year ASCVD risk, as follows: the variables and published ? coefficients from the PCE (model 1), the PCE variables with cohort-derived ? coefficients (model 2), and model 2 plus baseline statin use (model 3). Data were collected from January 2002 to December 2012 and analyzed from June 2016 to March 2020. Exposures:Traditional ASCVD risk factors from the PCE plus baseline statin use. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident ASCVD and ASCVD mortality. Results:Of 1?672?336 patients in the cohort (mean [SD] baseline age 58.0 [13.8] years, 1?575?163 [94.2%] men, 1?383?993 [82.8%] white), 312?155 (18.7%) were receiving statin therapy at baseline. During 5 years of follow-up, 66?605 (4.0%) experienced an ASCVD event, and 31?878 (1.9%) experienced ASCVD death. Compared with the original PCE, the cohort-derived model did not improve model discrimination in any of the 4 age-sex strata but did improve model calibration. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk compared with the cohort-derived model; 211?237 of 1?136?161 white men (18.6%), 29?634 of 218?463 black men (13.6%), 1741 of 44?399 white women (3.9%), and 836 of 16?034 black women (5.2%) would be potentially eligible for statin therapy under the PCE but not the cohort-derived model. When added to the cohort-derived model, baseline statin therapy was associated with a 7% (95% CI, 5%-9%) lower relative risk of ASCVD and a 25% (95% CI, 23%-28%) lower relative risk for ASCVD death. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, lower than expected rates of incident ASCVD events in a contemporary national cohort were observed. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk, and more than 15% of patients would be potentially eligible for statin therapy based on the PCE but not on a cohort-derived model. In the statin era, health care professionals and systems should base ASCVD risk assessment on models calibrated to their patient populations.
| S-EPMC7361654 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsFinerenone, a selective, non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, improves cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). This subgroup analysis of FIDELITY, a pre-specified, pooled, individual patient-data analysis of FIDELIO-DKD (NCT02540993) and FIGARO-DKD (NCT02545049), compared finerenone vs. placebo in patients with and without baseline history of atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD).Methods and resultsOutcomes included a composite CV outcome [CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF)]; CV death or HHF; a composite kidney outcome (kidney failure, sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate decrease ≥57%, or kidney-related death); all-cause mortality; and safety by baseline history of ASCVD.Of 13 026 patients, 5935 (45.6%) had a history of ASCVD. The incidence of the composite CV outcome, CV death or HHF, and all-cause mortality was higher in patients with ASCVD vs. those without, with no difference between groups in the composite kidney outcome. Finerenone consistently reduced outcomes vs. placebo in patients with and without ASCVD (P-interaction for the composite CV outcome, CV death or HHF, the composite kidney outcome, and all-cause mortality 0.38, 0.68, 0.33, and 0.38, respectively). Investigator-reported treatment-emergent adverse events were consistent between treatment arms across ASCVD subgroups.ConclusionFinerenone reduced the risk of CV and kidney outcomes consistently across the spectrum of CKD in patients with T2D, irrespective of prevalent ASCVD.
| S-EPMC9753093 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cardiovascular disease remains the principal cause of death and disability among patients with diabetes mellitus. Diabetes mellitus exacerbates mechanisms underlying atherosclerosis and heart failure. Unfortunately, these mechanisms are not adequately modulated by therapeutic strategies focusing solely on optimal glycemic control with currently available drugs or approaches. In the setting of multifactorial risk reduction with statins and other lipid-lowering agents, antihypertensive therapies, and antihyperglycemic treatment strategies, cardiovascular complication rates are falling, yet remain higher for patients with diabetes mellitus than for those without. This review considers the mechanisms, history, controversies, new pharmacological agents, and recent evidence for current guidelines for cardiovascular management in the patient with diabetes mellitus to support evidence-based care in the patient with diabetes mellitus and heart disease outside of the acute care setting.
| S-EPMC4910510 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are well-established in type 2 but not type 1 diabetes (T1DM). We assessed risk factors in the long-term (mean 27 years) follow-up of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) cohort with T1DM. Cox proportional hazards multivariate models assessed the association of traditional and novel risk factors, including HbA1c, with major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (MACE) (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke) and any-CVD (MACE plus confirmed angina, silent MI, revascularization, or congestive heart failure). Age and mean HbA1c were strongly associated with any-CVD and with MACE. For each percentage point increase in mean HbA1c, the risk for any-CVD and for MACE increased by 31 and 42%, respectively. CVD and MACE were associated with seven other conventional factors, such as blood pressure, lipids, and lack of ACE inhibitor use, but not with sex. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves for the association of age and HbA1c, taken together with any-CVD and for MACE, were 0.70 and 0.77, respectively, and for the final models, including all significant risk factors, were 0.75 and 0.82. Although many conventional CVD risk factors apply in T1DM, hyperglycemia is an important risk factor second only to age.
| S-EPMC4839209 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Aims/hypothesisType 2 diabetes is a heterogeneous disease process with variable trajectories of CVD risk. We aimed to evaluate four phenomapping strategies and their ability to stratify CVD risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes and to identify subgroups who may benefit from specific therapies.MethodsParticipants with type 2 diabetes and free of baseline CVD in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial were included in this study (N = 6466). Clustering using Gaussian mixture models, latent class analysis, finite mixture models (FMMs) and principal component analysis was compared. Clustering variables included demographics, medical and social history, laboratory values and diabetes complications. The interaction between the phenogroup and intensive glycaemic, combination lipid and intensive BP therapy for the risk of the primary outcome (composite of fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal myocardial infarction or unstable angina) was evaluated using adjusted Cox models. The phenomapping strategies were independently assessed in an external validation cohort (Look Action for Health in Diabetes [Look AHEAD] trial: n = 4211; and Bypass Angioplasty Revascularisation Investigation 2 Diabetes [BARI 2D] trial: n = 1495).ResultsOver 9.1 years of follow-up, 789 (12.2%) participants had a primary outcome event. FMM phenomapping with three phenogroups was the best-performing clustering strategy in both the derivation and validation cohorts as determined by Bayesian information criterion, Dunn index and improvement in model discrimination. Phenogroup 1 (n = 663, 10.3%) had the highest burden of comorbidities and diabetes complications, phenogroup 2 (n = 2388, 36.9%) had an intermediate comorbidity burden and lowest diabetes complications, and phenogroup 3 (n = 3415, 52.8%) had the fewest comorbidities and intermediate burden of diabetes complications. Significant interactions were observed between phenogroups and treatment interventions including intensive glycaemic control (p-interaction = 0.042) and combination lipid therapy (p-interaction < 0.001) in the ACCORD, intensive lifestyle intervention (p-interaction = 0.002) in the Look AHEAD and early coronary revascularisation (p-interaction = 0.003) in the BARI 2D trial cohorts for the risk of the primary composite outcome. Favourable reduction in the risk of the primary composite outcome with these interventions was noted in low-risk participants of phenogroup 3 but not in other phenogroups. Compared with phenogroup 3, phenogroup 1 participants were more likely to have severe/symptomatic hypoglycaemic events and medication non-adherence on follow-up in the ACCORD and Look AHEAD trial cohorts.Conclusions/interpretationClustering using FMMs was the optimal phenomapping strategy to identify replicable subgroups of patients with type 2 diabetes with distinct clinical characteristics, CVD risk and response to therapies.
| S-EPMC10535363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsChronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes mellitus increase atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) risk. However, the association between renal outcome of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and ASCVD risk is unclear.MethodsThis retrospective study enrolled 218 type 2 diabetic patients with biopsy-proven DKD, and without known cardiovascular diseases. Baseline characteristics were obtained and the 10-year ASCVD risk score was calculated using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE). Renal outcome was defined as progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The association between ASCVD risk and renal function and outcome was analyzed with logistic regression and Cox analysis.ResultsAmong all patients, the median 10-year ASCVD risk score was 14.1%. The median of ASCVD risk score in CKD stage 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 10.9%, 12.3%, 16.5%, and 14.8%, respectively (p = 0.268). Compared with patients with lower ASCVD risk (＜14.1%), those with higher ASCVD risk had lower eGFR, higher systolic blood pressure, and more severe renal interstitial inflammation. High ASCVD risk (>14.1%) was an independent indicator of renal dysfunction in multivariable-adjusted logistic analysis (OR, 3.997; 95%CI, 1.385-11.530; p = 0.010), though failed to be an independent risk factor for ESRD in patients with DKD in univariate and multivariate Cox analysis.ConclusionsDKD patients even in CKD stage 1 had comparable ASCVD risk score to patients in CKD stage 2, 3, and 4. Higher ASCVD risk indicated severe renal insufficiency, while no prognostic value of ASVCD risk for renal outcome was observed, which implied macroangiopathy and microangiopathy in patients with DKD were related, but relatively independent.
| S-EPMC7946063 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundClonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), which is defined as the presence of an expanded somatic blood-cell clone in persons without other hematologic abnormalities, is common among older persons and is associated with an increased risk of hematologic cancer. We previously found preliminary evidence for an association between CHIP and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but the nature of this association was unclear.MethodsWe used whole-exome sequencing to detect the presence of CHIP in peripheral-blood cells and associated such presence with coronary heart disease using samples from four case-control studies that together enrolled 4726 participants with coronary heart disease and 3529 controls. To assess causality, we perturbed the function of Tet2, the second most commonly mutated gene linked to clonal hematopoiesis, in the hematopoietic cells of atherosclerosis-prone mice.ResultsIn nested case-control analyses from two prospective cohorts, carriers of CHIP had a risk of coronary heart disease that was 1.9 times as great as in noncarriers (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 2.7). In two retrospective case-control cohorts for the evaluation of early-onset myocardial infarction, participants with CHIP had a risk of myocardial infarction that was 4.0 times as great as in noncarriers (95% CI, 2.4 to 6.7). Mutations in DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, and JAK2 were each individually associated with coronary heart disease. CHIP carriers with these mutations also had increased coronary-artery calcification, a marker of coronary atherosclerosis burden. Hypercholesterolemia-prone mice that were engrafted with bone marrow obtained from homozygous or heterozygous Tet2 knockout mice had larger atherosclerotic lesions in the aortic root and aorta than did mice that had received control bone marrow. Analyses of macrophages from Tet2 knockout mice showed elevated expression of several chemokine and cytokine genes that contribute to atherosclerosis.ConclusionsThe presence of CHIP in peripheral-blood cells was associated with nearly a doubling in the risk of coronary heart disease in humans and with accelerated atherosclerosis in mice. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).
| S-EPMC6717509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A prospective observational study was conducted to investigate the residual risk factors to predict recurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with a high prevalence under lipid-lowering therapy, particularly in the subpopulations of diabetic and nondiabetic individuals. A total of 5,483 adults (with a mean age of 66.4 and 73.3% male) with established coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral artery disease were identified from the T-SPARCLE multi-center registry. Of them, 38.6% had diabetes. The residual risk factors for MACE are divergent in these atherosclerotic patients with and without diabetes. In diabetic subpopulation, the risk of MACE was significantly increased with heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 (vs. stage 1-2), without beta blocker use, and higher non-HDL-C, after controlling for covariates including statin use and the intensity of therapy. Increased LDL-C and TG levels were also associated with increased risk, but to a much less extent. Among nondiabetic individuals, HF, CKD stage 4-5, and history of myocardial infarction were the significant independent predictors of MACE. It is suggested that ASCVD patients with concomitant diabetes need stricter control of lipid, particularly non-HDL-C levels, to reduce cardiovascular risk when on statin therapy.
| S-EPMC5569020 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE: Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with use of A1C and clinical characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18-70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up of 5.64 years. RESULTS: This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the outcome (P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 +/- 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk >or=10%. CONCLUSIONS: This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.
| S-EPMC2551651 | biostudies-other