Dataset Information

A model for calculating the long-term estimated post-transplant survival of deceased donor liver transplant patients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The estimated long-term survival (EPTS) score is used for kidney allocation. A comparable prognostic tool to accurately quantify EPTS benefit in deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) candidates is nonexistent.

Methods

Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database, we developed, calibrated, and validated a nonlinear regression equation to calculate liver-EPTS (L-EPTS) for 5- and 10-year outcomes in adult DDLT recipients. The population was randomly split (70:30) into two discovery (N = 26,372 and N = 46,329) and validation cohorts (N = 11,288 and N = 19,859) for 5- and 10-year post-transplant outcomes, respectively. Discovery cohorts were used for variable selection, Cox proportional hazard regression modeling, and nonlinear curve fitting. Eight clinical variables were selected to construct the L-EPTS formula, and a five-tiered ranking system was created.

Findings

Tier thresholds were defined and the L-EPTS model was calibrated (R² = 0.96 [5-year] and 0.99 [10-year]). Patients' median survival probabilities in the discovery cohorts for 5- and 10-year outcomes ranged from 27.94% to 89.22% and 16.27% to 87.97%, respectively. The L-EPTS model was validated via calculation of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves using validation cohorts. Area under the ROC curve was 82.4% (5-year) and 86.5% (10-year).

Interpretation

L-EPTS has high applicability and clinical utility because it uses easily obtained pre-transplant patients characteristics to accurately discriminate between those who are likely to receive a prolonged survival benefit and those who are not. It is important to evaluate medical urgency alongside survival benefit and placement efficiency when considering the allocation of a scarce resource.

Funding

There are no funding sources related to this project.

SUBMITTER: Malamon JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9996349 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A model for calculating the long-term estimated post-transplant survival of deceased donor liver transplant patients.

Malamon John S JS Jackson Whitney E WE Saben Jessica L JL Conzen Kendra K Schold Jesse D JD Pomposelli James J JJ Pomfret Elizabeth A EA Kaplan Bruce B

EBioMedicine 20230302

<h4>Background</h4>The estimated long-term survival (EPTS) score is used for kidney allocation. A comparable prognostic tool to accurately quantify EPTS benefit in deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) candidates is nonexistent.<h4>Methods</h4>Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database, we developed, calibrated, and validated a nonlinear regression equation to calculate liver-EPTS (L-EPTS) for 5- and 10-year outcomes in adult DDLT recipients. The population was rando ...[more]

PMID: 36870199

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and objectivesData reported to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) are used in kidney transplant research, policy development, and assessment of center quality, but the accuracy of early post-transplant outcome measures is unknown.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThe Deceased Donor Study (DDS) is a prospective cohort study at five transplant centers. Research coordinators manually abstracted data from electronic records for 557 adults who underwent deceased donor kidney transplantation between April of 2010 and November of 2013. We compared the post-transplant outcomes of delayed graft function (DGF; defined as dialysis in the first post-transplant week), acute rejection, and post-transplant serum creatinine reported to the OPTN with data collected for the DDS.ResultsMedian kidney donor risk index was 1.22 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.97-1.53). Median recipient age was 55 (IQR, 46-63) years old, 63% were men, and 47% were black; 93% had received dialysis before transplant. Using DDS data as the gold standard, we found that pretransplant dialysis was not reported to the OPTN in only 11 (2%) instances. DGF in OPTN data had a sensitivity of 89% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 84% to 93%) and specificity of 98% (95% CI, 96% to 99%). Surprisingly, the OPTN data accurately identified acute allograft rejection in only 20 of 47 instances (n=488; sensitivity of 43%; 95% CI, 17% to 73%). Across participating centers, sensitivity of acute rejection varied widely from 23% to 100%, whereas specificity was uniformly high (92%-100%). Six-month serum creatinine values in DDS and OPTN data had high concordance (n=490; Lin concordance correlation =0.90; 95% CI, 0.88 to 0.92).ConclusionsOPTN outcomes for recipients of deceased donor kidney transplants have high validity for DGF and 6-month allograft function but lack sensitivity in detecting rejection. Future studies using OPTN data may consider focusing on allograft function at 6 months as a useful outcome.

Project description:ImportanceDespite the acceptance of living-donor liver transplant (LDLT) as a lifesaving procedure for end-stage liver disease, it remains underused in the United States. Quantification of lifetime survival benefit and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease incorporating sodium levels (MELD-Na) score range at which benefit outweighs risk in LDLT is necessary to demonstrate its safety and effectiveness.ObjectiveTo assess the survival benefit, life-years saved, and the MELD-Na score at which that survival benefit was obtained for individuals who received an LDLT compared with that for individuals who remained on the wait list.Design, setting, and participantsThis case-control study was a retrospective, secondary analysis of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database of 119 275 US liver transplant candidates and recipients from January 1, 2012, to September 2, 2021. Liver transplant candidates aged 18 years or older who were assigned to the wait list (N = 116 455) or received LDLT (N = 2820) were included. Patients listed for retransplant or multiorgan transplant and those with prior kidney or liver transplants were excluded.ExposuresLiving-donor liver transplant vs remaining on the wait list.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome of this study was life-years saved from receiving an LDLT. Secondary outcomes included 1-year relative mortality and risk, time to equal risk, time to equal survival, and the MELD-Na score at which that survival benefit was obtained for individuals who received an LDLT compared with that for individuals who remained on the wait list. MELD-Na score ranges from 6 to 40 and is well correlated with short-term survival. Higher MELD-Na scores (>20) are associated with an increased risk of death.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of the 119 275 study participants was 55.1 (11.2) years, 63% were male, 0.9% were American Indian or Alaska Native, 4.3% were Asian, 8.2% were Black or African American, 15.8% were Hispanic or Latino, 0.2% were Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and 70.2% were White. Mortality risk and survival models confirmed a significant survival benefit for patients receiving an LDLT who had a MELD-Na score of 11 or higher (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.47-0.88]; P = .006). Living-donor liver transplant recipients gained an additional 13 to 17 life-years compared with patients who never received an LDLT.Conclusions and relevanceAn LDLT is associated with a substantial survival benefit to patients with end-stage liver disease even at MELD-Na scores as low as 11. The findings of this study suggest that the life-years gained are comparable to or greater than those conferred by any other lifesaving procedure or by a deceased-donor liver transplant. This study's findings challenge current perceptions regarding when LDLT survival benefit occurs.

Project description:Background and aimsPrevious recommendations suggested living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) should not be considered for patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) > 25 and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS).Approach and resultsPatients who were listed with MELD > 25 from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed with intention-to-treat (ITT) basis retrospectively. Patients who had a potential live donor were analyzed as ITT-LDLT, whereas those who had none belonged to ITT-deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) group. ITT-overall survival (OS) was analyzed from the time of listing. Three hundred twenty-five patients were listed (ITT-LDLT n = 212, ITT-DDLT n = 113). The risk of delist/death was lower in the ITT-LDLT group (43.4% vs. 19.8%, P < 0.001), whereas the transplant rate was higher in the ITT-LDLT group (78.3% vs. 52.2%, P < 0.001). The 5-year ITT-OS was superior in the ITT-LDLT group (72.6% vs. 49.5%, P < 0.001) for patients with MELD > 25 and patients with both MELD > 25 and HRS (56% vs. 33.8%, P < 0.001). Waitlist mortality was the highest early after listing, and the distinct alteration of slope at survival curve showed that the benefits of ITT-LDLT occurred within the first month after listing. Perioperative outcomes and 5-year patient survival were comparable for patients with MELD > 25 (88% vs. 85.4%, P = 0.279) and patients with both MELD > 25 and HRS (77% vs. 76.4%, P = 0.701) after LDLT and DDLT, respectively. The LDLT group has a higher rate of renal recovery by 1 month (77.4% vs. 59.1%, P = 0.003) and 3 months (86.1% vs, 74.5%, P = 0.029), whereas the long-term estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was similar between the 2 groups. ITT-LDLT reduced the hazard of mortality (hazard ratio = 0.387-0.552) across all MELD strata.ConclusionsThe ITT-LDLT reduced waitlist mortality and allowed an earlier access to transplant. LDLT in patients with high MELD/HRS was feasible, and they had similar perioperative outcomes and better renal recovery, whereas the long-term survival and eGFR were comparable with DDLT. LDLT should be considered for patients with high MELD/HRS, and the application of LDLT should not be restricted with a MELD cutoff.

Project description:Objectives: We aimed to analyze the effect of cold ischemia time (CIT) on post-transplant graft function through mixed-effect model analysis to reduce the bias caused by paired mate kidneys. Methods: We reviewed all kidney transplantation records from 2015 to 2019 at our center. After applying the exclusion criteria, 561 cases were included for analysis. All donor characteristics, preservation and matching information, and recipient characteristics were collected. Transplant outcomes included delayed graft function (DGF) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Generalized linear mixed models were applied for analysis. We also explored potential effect modifiers, namely, donor death category, expanded criteria donors, and donor death causes. Results: Among the 561 cases, 79 DGF recipients developed DGF, and 15 recipients who died after surgery were excluded from the eGFR estimation. The median stable eGFR of the 546 recipients was 60.39 (47.63, 76.97) ml/min/1.73 m2. After adjusting for confounding covariates, CIT had a negative impact on DGF incidence [odds ratio = 1.149 (1.006, 1.313), P = 0.041]. In the evaluation of the impact on eGFR, the regression showed that CIT had no significant correlation with eGFR [β = -0.287 (-0.625, 0.051), P = 0.096]. When exploring potential effect modifiers, only the death category showed a significant interaction with CIT in the effect on eGFR (P interaction = 0.027). In the donation after brain death (DBD) group, CIT had no significant effect on eGFR [β = 0.135 (-0.433, 0.702), P = 0.642]. In the donation after circulatory death/donation after brain death followed by circulatory death (DCD/DBCD) group, CIT had a significantly negative effect on eGFR [β= -0.700 (-1.196, -0.204), P = 0.006]. Compared to a CIT of 0-6 h, a CIT of 6-8 or 8-12 h did not decrease the post-transplant eGFR. CIT over 12 h (12-16 h or over 16 h) significantly decreased eGFR. With the increase in CIT, the regenerated eGFR worsened (P trend = 0.011). Conclusion: Considering the effect of paired mate kidneys, the risk of DGF increased with prolonged CIT. The donor death category was an effect modifier between CIT and eGFR. Prolonged CIT did not reduce the eGFR level in recipients from DBDs but significantly decreased the eGFR in recipients from DCDs/DBCDs. This result indicates the potential biological interaction between CIT and donor death category.

Dataset Information

A model for calculating the long-term estimated post-transplant survival of deceased donor liver transplant patients.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

A model for calculating the long-term estimated post-transplant survival of deceased donor liver transplant patients.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets