Dataset Information

Modeling the progression of Type 2 diabetes with underlying obesity.

ABSTRACT: Environmentally induced or epigenetic-related beta-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance play a critical role in the progression to diabetes. We developed a mathematical modeling framework capable of studying the progression to diabetes incorporating various diabetogenic factors. Considering the heightened risk of beta-cell defects induced by obesity, we focused on the obesity-diabetes model to further investigate the influence of obesity on beta-cell function and glucose regulation. The model characterizes individualized glucose and insulin dynamics over the span of a lifetime. We then fit the model to the longitudinal data of the Pima Indian population, which captures both the fluctuations and long-term trends of glucose levels. As predicted, controlling or eradicating the obesity-related factor can alleviate, postpone, or even reverse diabetes. Furthermore, our results reveal that distinct abnormalities of beta-cell function and levels of insulin resistance among individuals contribute to different risks of diabetes. This study may encourage precise interventions to prevent diabetes and facilitate individualized patient treatment.

SUBMITTER: Yang B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9997875 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the progression of Type 2 diabetes with underlying obesity.

Yang Boya B Li Jiaxu J Haller Michael J MJ Schatz Desmond A DA Rong Libin L

PLoS computational biology 20230227 2

Environmentally induced or epigenetic-related beta-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance play a critical role in the progression to diabetes. We developed a mathematical modeling framework capable of studying the progression to diabetes incorporating various diabetogenic factors. Considering the heightened risk of beta-cell defects induced by obesity, we focused on the obesity-diabetes model to further investigate the influence of obesity on beta-cell function and glucose regulation. The model ...[more]

PMID: 36848379

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Project description:BackgroundTaxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.Methods and findingsUsing consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations.ConclusionSustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

Dataset Information

Modeling the progression of Type 2 diabetes with underlying obesity.

Publications

Modeling the progression of Type 2 diabetes with underlying obesity.

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